FTTx in the Middle East and North Africa: Trends and Forecasts 2015–2020

  • ID: 3617267
  • Report
  • Region: Africa, Middle East, North Africa
  • 30 pages
  • Analysys Mason Group
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Take-up of FTTP is Strong in Places Where it is Available
This report analyses and forecasts coverage (premises passed), conversion (active connections as a percentage of premises passed) and capex for FTTx architecture and technologies during 2011–2020. It is based on several sources, including:

- Internal research, including our core telecoms forecasts, our fixed data traffic forecasts, and our detailed modelling of the costs of technologies and
deployment. Our modelling and assumptions are informed by professionals in our 12 offices worldwide, including Dubai.

- ongoing engagement with stakeholders in the FTTx market, including operators and vendors.

"There is a stark contrast between near-monopoly returns in some MENA markets and very little movement in others."

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region encompasses some of the most- and least-advanced countries in the world terms of next-generation access (NGA). Operators in countries that are between these two extremes are assessing the long-term economic case for fibre. This report analyses and forecasts coverage (premises passed), conversion (active connections as a percentage of premises passed) and capex for FTTx architecture and technologies in MENA during 2011–2020.

The forecasts include the following metrics:

- coverage (premises passed)
- conversion (premises with active connections as a percentage of premises passed)
- capex (split into network and connection)

Split by technology:

- FTTC/VDSL
- FTTB/VDSL
- FTTB/LAN
- FTTP (split into incumbent and alternative operator).

Who Should Read this Report:

- This report provides strategic planners with detailed and comprehensive insight into the development of FTTx in comparable markets, enabling them to understand what level and type of investment is appropriate, and where opportunities lie.
- For equipment vendors, construction businesses and component suppliers, this report shows the scale of opportunity in FTTx.
- The model can also serve several other functions beyond the immediate scope of this report. It can be used to provide the costs of alternative scenarios, including different mixes of technologies, different demand profiles in different geotypes, and different completion dates. If you wish to explore these options, please contact the author.

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6. Executive summary
7. Worldwide trends
8. Worldwide: By 2020, over half the world will have access to FTTx or cable, which will make up 80% of broadband connections
9. Worldwide: Investment in FTTP will peak in 2015, and follow different paths in developed and emerging economies
10. Worldwide: Interest in copper acceleration is strong in Europe, but much of the rest of the world is going straight to FTTP
11. Worldwide: Older, purely cost-based, models are giving way to newer thinking about the optimal use of capital resources
12. Worldwide: The service use case for FTTx is compelling, and the multi-service use case for FTTP will shape technology strategy
13. Worldwide: Interest in FTTx is growing in emerging economies
14. Worldwide: Conversion rates for fibre-based access are improving, and forced migration from legacy access is increasing
15. Regional trends
16. Middle East and North Africa: Outside oil-rich states, there is little urgency to invest in renewing fixed access
17. Middle East and North Africa: Take-up of FTTP is strong in places where it is available
18. Country-level trends
19. Oman: The Omani government is building a new non-profit neutral national FTTP wholesale network
20. Qatar: Despite government intervention, a quasi-monopoly has emerged
21. Saudi Arabia: Attempts to increase coverage and competition have stalled
22. UAE: UAE was one of the first countries in the world to reach universal FTTH coverage
23. Forecast methodology and assumptions
29. Definition of geographical regions
30. Methodology for coverage and conversion
31. Methodology for capex

List of figures
Figure 1: NGA premises passed by technology, Middle East and North Africa, 2014–2020
Figure 2: Active NGA connections, by technology, Middle East and North Africa, 2014–2020
Figure 3: Conversion rates for NGA overall, and FTTP and FTTx, worldwide, 2011–2020
Figure 4: NGA coverage by technology, worldwide, 2011–2020
Figure 5: Fixed broadband active connections, by technology, and NGA’s share of connections, worldwide, 2011–2020
Figure 6: FTTx capex by market type, and availability and affordability of NGA, worldwide, 2013–2020
Figure 7: Incumbent operator FTTC or FTTB coverage, by region, 2015 and 2020
Figure 8: Cost of deploying FTTx by centile, new and old cost models (illustrative)
Figure 9: Bandwidth consumed by pixel resolution and type of MPEG-4 compression
Figure 10: Emerging economies’ shares of worldwide FTTx premises passed and connected, and emerging economies’ FTTx coverage, 2011–2015
Figure 11: Conversion rates for NGA by technology, worldwide, 2011–2015
Figure 12: FTTx net additions by technology, worldwide, 2011–2015
Figure 13: NGA coverage by technology, Middle East and North Africa, 2014–2020
Figure 14: FTTx capex by technology, Middle East and North Africa, 2014–2020
Figure 15: Active connections per premises, by technology, Middle East and North Africa, 2014–2020
Figure 16: Conversion rates for NGA overall, and FTTP and FTTx , Middle East and North Africa, 2014–2020
Figure 17: FTTP premises passed and connected, and FTTP conversion rates, Gulf Co-operation Council states, 2014–2020
Figure 18: FTTx connections and coverage, Oman, 2013–2020
Figure 19: FTTx connections and coverage, Qatar, 2013–2020
Figure 20: FTTx connections and coverage, Saudi Arabia, 2013–2020
Figure 21: FTTx connections and coverage, UAE, 2013–2020
Figure 22: Regional breakdown used in this report
Figure 23: Coverage and conversion model outline
Figure 24: Capex model outline
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Countries modelled individually

- Algeria
- Egypt
- Kuwait
- Morocco
- Oman
- Qatar
- Saudi Arabia
- United Arab Emirates

Detailed country commentary

- Oman
- Qatar
- Saudi Arabia
- United Arab Emirates
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