However, global trade faces several challenges including worsening macroeconomic conditions, declining relevance of WTO, rising geopolitical tensions, and restrictions on migration. This study discusses the future of trade given the new technological, economic, political, and regulatory shifts globally.
- Global trade has grown tremendously from ancient times due to technological innovations in transportation and the resulting decline in shipping costs.
- Globalisation of supply chains and the unbundling of production processes have led to a hub-and-spoke model in trade, with different regions/cities specialising in specific processes.
- Simultaneously, there has been a proliferation of free trade agreements (FTAs) across the globe. The World Trade Organization (WTO) also facilitates the lowering of trade tariffs.
- Key Findings
- Top Traded Items across Historical Periods—Commodities
- Exponential Growth in Global Trade
- Unbundling in Global Trade
- Proliferation of FTAs across the Globe
- Trade is still Largely Regional in Nature
- Effects of Globalisation of Trade
- Positive Impact of Trade and Globalisation
- Negative Impact of Trade and Globalisation
- Challenges Lead to Slowdown in Global Trade Growth
- Growth of Bilateral Trade Agreements
- Emergence of Political-Economic Trading Blocs
- What does the Future Hold for Trade?
- New Technologies will Increase Node-to-Node Trade
- Unbundling of Global Economic Structures through Blockchains and Peer-to-Peer Structure
- Global Political Conflicts may Change Trade Linkages
- Homogenisation of Global Regulations to Favour Trade
- Top Traded Items Across Historical Periods—Commodities
- Top Traded Goods in 2150—A Hypothesis
- Data as the New Oil
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