Fixed Services in Emerging Asia–Pacific: Trends and Forecasts 2015–2020

  • ID: 3652166
  • Report
  • Region: Asia Pacific
  • 31 pages
  • Analysys Mason Group
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EMAP: Telecoms Revenue Will Decline, but Fixed Broadband and Pay-TV Services Will Grow as Their User Bases Increase
"Telecoms retail revenue in emerging Asia–Pacific will grow at a CAGR of 2.9% during 2014–2020, which is much lower than its historical CAGR of 7.3% during 2010–2014."

This report provides commentary and trend analysis to support
our 5-year forecast for emerging Asia–Pacific (EMAP). It includes
worldwide context and specific country commentary on four key
countries: China, Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand.

The report provides forecasts that are informed by on-the-ground
market experts from our Research and Consulting divisions, and
external interviews.

Fixed broadband, together with mobile handset data and mobile broadband, will be key growth contributors to telecoms revenue in emerging Asia–Pacific (EMAP), driven by the increasing demand for high bandwidth services.

This report and associated data annex provide:

- commentary and trend analysis to support our 5-year forecast for EMAP
- worldwide context, regional analysis and commentary on four countries: China, Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand
- forecasting informed by on-the-ground market experts from our Research and Consulting divisions.

Geographical coverage

Countries modelled individually

- Bangladesh
- China
- India
- Indonesia
- Malaysia
- Pakistan
- Sri Lanka
- Thailand
- Vietnam

Detailed country commentary

- China
- Indonesia
- Malaysia
- Thailand

Data coverage

Fixed connections:
- Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up
- Narrowband voice, VoBB
- DSL, FTTH/B, cable, BFWA, other

Fixed revenue:
- Service, retail
- Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up, BNS
- DSL, FTTH/B, cable, BFWA, other

Fixed voice traffic:
- Outgoing minutes, MoU

Who Should Read this Report
- Market intelligence, strategy and project managers within fixed operators in EMAP to gain a better understanding of local market demands and
future trends, as well as best practices overseas.
- Regulatory bodies in emerging Asia-Pacific to deepen understanding of local markets and learn trends in overseas markets.
- Financial institutions that directly invest in the telecoms sector in the region, or advise others that do so, to gain qualitative and quantitative
market information.
- Press and media bodies that need a foundation of knowledge of the Asia–Pacific fixed telecoms market.

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6. Executive summary
7. Worldwide trends
8. Worldwide: EMAP will have the highest fixed revenue growth, while CEE and WE will be the only regions to see decline
9. Worldwide: FTTH/B connections will increase to 425 million worldwide; penetration will dominate in EMAP, DVAP and CEE
10. Worldwide: Household penetration will increase from 39% to 48%, and EMAP will contribute the strongest growth
11. Regional trends
12. EMAP: Telecoms revenue will decline, but fixed broadband and pay-TV services will grow as their user bases increase
13. EMAP: Cable and fibre will drive overall fixed broadband growth and VDSL will support DSL growth from 2016
14. EMAP: Fixed broadband penetration is low, but will grow in most of the EMAP countries
15. EMAP: China will have the highest share of 4G connections and Malaysia will lead fixed broadband penetration
16. EMAP: Fixed broadband and IPTV revenue will grow, with increasing service take-up driven by intensive fibre roll-out
17. Country-level trends
18. China: Price wars will increase penetration at the expense of ARPU, and restructuring will intensify market competition
19. Indonesia: Better coverage and fibre deployment will boost fixed broadband adoption; fixed voice continues to decline
20. Malaysia: Better fibre connectivity as a result of operators’ network roll-outs will drive fixed broadband and IPTV growth
21. Thailand: Investment in fixed broadband network upgrades will continue, enabling multi-play services
22. Forecast methodology and assumptions
23. We have a disciplined process of forecasting; our on-the-ground analysts
and consultants collaborate closely to assess market dynamics
24. We use a vast variety of primary and secondary research for data collection; we use five key drivers and follow strict principles in forecasts
25. A robust and comparable set of historical data is the starting point for our forecasts; this involves three main activities
26. About the authors

List of Figures
Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), emerging Asia–Pacific, 2010–2020
Figure 2: CAGRs for fixed and mobile retail revenue (2014–2020) and market size by total retail revenue (2020), by region, worldwide
Figure 3: Fixed broadband connections by type, and fixed voice, IPTV and mobile broadband connections, worldwide, 2010–2020
Figure 4: Fixed broadband penetration of households by country, worldwide, 2010–2020
Figure 5: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, fixed voice and fixed broadband ASPU, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2010–2020
Figure 6: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2014–2020
Figure 7: Connections by type, and growth rates, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2014–2020
Figure 8: Fixed broadband connections by type, and fixed voice, IPTV and mobile broadband connections, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2010–2020
Figure 9: Fixed broadband penetration of households by country, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2010–2020
Figure 10: Mobile connections by technology generation and fixed broadband household penetration, by country, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2020
Figure 11: Fixed penetration rates by service type, EMAP, 2010–2020
Figure 12: Fixed ASPU by service type, EMAP, 2010–2020
Figure 13: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, EMAP
Figure 14: Total fixed retail revenue, fixed broadband and IPTV revenue and CAGR, China, 2014–2020
Figure 15: Total fixed retail revenue, fixed broadband and IPTV revenue and CAGR, Indonesia, 2014–2020
Figure 16: Total fixed retail revenue, fixed broadband and IPTV revenue and CAGR, Malaysia, 2014–2020
Figure 17: Total fixed retail revenue, fixed broadband and IPTV revenue and CAGR, Thailand, 2014–2020

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- Bangladesh
- China
- India
- Indonesia
- Malaysia
- Pakistan
- Sri Lanka
- Thailand
- Vietnam
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