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Sub-Saharan Africa Electricity Metering: Market Forecast (2016 - 2026)

  • ID: 3669947
  • Report
  • February 2016
  • Region: Africa
  • 133 Pages
  • Northeast Group, LLC
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By the end of 2016, prepaid meters will make up 42% of the residential metering market and this share will grow to 61% by 2020
A regional study of the Sub-Saharan Africa electricity metering market covering the period 2016-2026 (152-pages + PowerPoint + dataset).

The study covers the four metering segments of legacy, prepaid, AMI and C&I metering with 10-year forecasts for each country. There are 15 countries covered in depth - including the main markets of Nigeria and South Africa - as well as summaries for the other countries in the region.

Sub-Saharan Africa is poised for a decade of strong, continuous economic growth. In order to sustain this growth, African countries are investing heavily in the power sector and rapidly expanding electrification programs. As they do, electricity metering will increase in importance, creating significant market potential. Metering is critical to Africa’s growth efforts as utilities seek to ensure financial sustainability through improved revenue collection. In the near term, this includes implementing metering for currently unmetered customers and large-scale deployments of prepaid meters. By the end of 2016, prepaid meters will make up 42% of the residential metering market and this share will grow to 61% by 2020. AMI metering - often including prepaid features - will also grow significantly in larger countries like Nigeria and South Africa. By 2026, over 90% of electricity meters in Africa will be either AMI or non-communicating prepaid meters.

At the same time, the African metering market faces significant challenges. Most notably, per-capita electricity consumption is the lowest in the world. In percapita consumption terms, the cost of advanced meters may be prohibitively high in some areas. Additionally, large rural populations make electrification impractical in some countries. Finally, political risk remains high across the continent. But these barriers are being lifted, and in some senses, Africa’s currently undeveloped market is a positive, as it creates large opportunities for growth. As these trends continue, Africa will have the fastest growing metering market in the world over the next decade.

Key questions answered in this study:

- How large will the electricity metering market in Africa be over the next ten years?
- Which countries have large-scale prepaid metering plans and electrification goals?
- Which countries are undergoing industry restructurings that will highlight the importance of utility financial sustainability through improved metering?
- How is Nigeria’s power sector privatization driving AMI deployments?
- Where are the largest opportunities for commercial and industrial meters?
- Who are the leading vendors and which ones are well placed to compete for this growing market?
Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
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i. Executive summary
ii. Methodology

1. Introduction
1.1 Electricity metering in the African context
1.2 The role of metering in Africa’s energy policy

2. Africa metering snapshot
2.1 Regional comparison
2.2 Market drivers
2.3 Market barriers

3. Market forecast

4. South Africa
4.1 Utilities in South Africa
4.2 South Africa drivers and barriers
4.3 Metering activity in South Africa
4.4 South Africa metering market forecast

5. Nigeria
5.1 Utilities in Nigeria
5.2 Nigeria drivers and barriers
5.3 Metering activity in Nigeria
5.4 Nigeria metering market forecast

6. Ghana
6.1 Utilities in Ghana
6.2 Ghana drivers and barriers
6.3 Metering activity in Ghana
6.4 Ghana metering market forecast

7. Mozambique
7.1 Utilities in Mozambique
7.2 Mozambique drivers and barriers
7.3 Metering activity in Mozambique
7.4 Mozambique metering market forecast

8. Kenya
8.1 Utilities in Kenya
8.2 Kenya drivers and barriers
8.3 Metering activity in Kenya
8.4 Kenya metering market forecast

9. Tanzania
9.1 Utilities in Tanzania
9.2 Tanzania drivers and barriers
9.3 Metering activity in Tanzania
9.4 Tanzania metering market forecast

10. Ethiopia
10.1 Utilities in Ethiopia
10.2 Ethiopia drivers and barriers
10.3 Metering activity in Ethiopia
10.4 Ethiopia metering market forecast

11. Zambia
11.1 Utilities in Zambia
11.2 Zambia drivers and barriers
11.3 Metering activity in Zambia
11.4 Zambia metering market forecast

12. Senegal
12.1 Utilities in Senegal
12.2 Senegal drivers and barriers
12.3 Metering activity in Senegal
12.4 Senegal metering market forecast

13. Angola
13.1 Utilities in Angola
13.2 Angola drivers and barriers
13.3 Metering activity in Angola
13.4 Angola metering market forecast

14. Rwanda
14.1 Utilities in Rwanda
14.2 Rwanda drivers and barriers
14.3 Metering activity in Rwanda
14.4 Rwanda metering market forecast

15. Uganda
15.1 Utilities in Uganda
15.2 Uganda drivers and barriers
15.3 Metering activity in Uganda
15.4 Uganda metering market forecast

16. Botswana
16.1 Utilities in Botswana
16.2 Botswana drivers and barriers
16.3 Metering activity in Botswana
16.4 Botswana metering market forecast

17. Cameroon
17.1 Utilities in Cameroon
17.2 Cameroon drivers and barriers
17.3 Metering activity in Cameroon
17.4 Cameroon metering market forecast

18. Namibia
18.1 Utilities in Namibia
18.2 Namibia drivers and barriers
18.3 Metering activity in Namibia
18.4 Namibia metering market forecast

19. Other countries

20. Vendors

21. Appendix
21.1 Import and installation vendors in Nigeria
21.2 Companies covered in this report
21.3 List of abbreviations and acronyms

List of Figures, Boxes, and Tables:
Sub-Saharan Africa electricity metering: Key takeaways
Change in smart meter market potential in major African markets
Installed base of prepaid meters in 2014 and end of 2016
Prepaid meter market penetration in Africa
Metering plans at Nigerian utilities
Recent metering activity in Africa
Annual prepaid and AMI meter shipments (units)
African countries by GDP ($bn)
Annual AMI spending in Africa ($M)
Electrification growth in Sub-Saharan Africa
Chinese metering vendors in Sub-Saharan Africa
Table 1.1: Metering segments
Figure 1.1: Countries participating in Power Africa
Figure 2.1: Electricity consumption by region
Figure 2.2: GDP growth by region (2016 – 2020)
Figure 2.3: Smart meter potential in emerging markets
Figure 2.4: Main regional drivers
Figure 2.5: GDP growth rates in Africa
Figure 2.6: T&D loss rates – EIA as source
Figure 2.7: T&D loss rates – alternative sources
Figure 2.8: Electrification rates in Sub-Saharan Africa
Figure 2.9: Electrification in Africa
Figure 2.10: High-voltage transmission lines in Africa
Figure 2.11: Electricity consumption per capita
Figure 2.12: Urbanization and rural electrification in Africa
Figure 2.13: Corruption Perceptions Index scores in Africa
Figure 3.1: Penetration rate by meter market segment in Africa
Table 3.1: Average meter costs by segment
Figure 3.2: Metering market forecast by segment in Africa
Figure 3.3: Metering market forecast by country in Africa
Table 3.2: Meter forecast data by segment
Table 3.3: Meter forecast data by country
Figure 3.4: Value of future metering shipments in Africa
Table 3.4: Value of future metering shipments in Africa
Figure 4.1: Electricity supply and demand in South Africa
Figure 4.2: Electricity sales and market segmentation in South Africa
Figure 4.3: Eskom demand savings
Table 4.1: Local content requirements in South Africa
Table 4.2: AMI projects in South Africa
Table 4.3: Metering roadmaps at Eskom
Figure 4.4: South Africa metering forecast
Table 4.1: South Africa metering forecast data
Table 5.1: Nigeria utility data
Table 5.2: Total meter growth in Nigeria
Table 5.3: Residential meter growth in Nigeria
Figure 5.1: R2 electricity tariffs across 11 utilities in Nigeria
Figure 5.2: Global T&D and billing losses
Figure 5.3: Electricity losses across 9 Nigerian utilities
Table 5.4: Metering plans at Nigerian utilities
Table 5.5: Prepaid metering at Abuja
Table 5.6: Prepaid metering at Benin
Figure 5.4: CAPEX at BEDC
Figure 5.5: AMI investments at JED
Figure 5.6: Annual meter deployments at YEDC
Figure 5.7: Nigeria metering forecast
Table 5.5: Nigeria metering forecast data
Figure 6.1: Total customer growth in Ghana
Figure 6.2: Average electricity tariff in Ghana
Figure 6.3: Electrification rates in Africa
Figure 6.4: Ghana metering forecast
Table 6.1: Ghana metering forecast data
Figure 7.1: Total customers and growth rates in Mozambique
Figure 7.2: Electrification rate by region in Mozambique
Figure 7.3: Urbanization rates in Africa
Figure 7.4: Mozambique metering forecast
Table 7.1: Mozambique metering forecast data
Figure 8.1: Energy supply and market segmentation in Kenya
Figure 8.2: Urban and rural electricity customers in Kenya
Figure 8.3: Historical electricity usage and market segmentation in Kenya
Figure 8.4: Kenya metering forecast
Table 8.1: Kenya metering forecast data
Figure 9.1: Total customers since 2006 in Tanzania
Figure 9.2: Forecast customer growth in Tanzania
Figure 9.3: Per-capita electricity consumption
Figure 9.4: Tanzania metering forecast
Table 9.1: Tanzania metering forecast data
Figure 10.1: Electricity production vs. per-capita consumption in Ethiopia
Figure 10.2: Rural vs. urban market segmentation in Ethiopia
Figure 10.3: Electrification growth forecast to 2025 in Ethiopia
Figure 10.4: Timeline of metering activity and plans in Ethiopia
Figure 10.5: Ethiopia metering forecast
Table 10.1: Ethiopia metering forecast data
Figure 11.1: Total customers and growth rates in Zambia
Figure 11.2: Electricity meters in Zambia
Figure 11.3: Electrification rates in Africa
Figure 11.4: Zambia metering forecast
Table 11.1: Zambia metering forecast data
Figure 12.1: Total customers since 2007 in Senegal
Figure 12.2: Average electricity price in Senegal
Figure 12.3: Subpar GDP growth in Senegal
Figure 12.4: Senegal metering forecast
Table 12.1: Senegal metering forecast data
Figure 13.1: Annual meter additions in Angola
Figure 13.2: Electrification in Angola
Figure 13.3: Metering in Angola
Figure 13.4: Angola metering forecast
Table 13.1: Angola metering forecast data
Figure 14.1: Development capacity forecast in Rwanda
Figure 14.2: Number of connections with capacity and demand in Rwanda
Figure 14.3: Installation costs per renewable MW of electricity in Rwanda
Figure 14.4: Rwanda metering forecast
Table 14.1: Rwanda metering forecast data
Figure 15.1: Electricity capacity and market segmentation in Uganda
Figure 15.2: Total customers and electricity sales in Uganda
Figure 15.3: Distribution losses and revenue collection in Uganda
Figure 15.4: Uganda metering forecast
Table 15.1: Uganda metering forecast data
Figure 16.1: Energy supply and market segmentation in Botswana
Figure 16.2: Total vs. residential consumption in Botswana
Figure 16.3: Electricity consumption by market segmentation in Botswana
Figure 16.6: Botswana metering forecast
Table 16.1: Botswana metering forecast data
Figure 17.1: Meter additions since 2002 in Cameroon
Figure 17.2: Planned and actual annual added connections in Cameroon
Figure 17.3: Business climate in Cameroon
Figure 17.4: Cameroon metering forecast
Table 17.1: Cameroon metering forecast data
Figure 18.1: Electricity demand vs. generation capacity in Namibia
Figure 18.2: Total vs. residential consumption in Namibia
Figure 18.3: Percentage of electricity imports in Namibia
Figure 18.4: Projected change in prices from shift to prepaid metering in Namibia
Figure 18.5: Namibia metering forecast
Table 18.1: Namibia metering forecast data
Table 19.1: Estimated total meter market size of additional African countries
Figure 19.1: Additional countries not considered in detail
Table 20.1: Leading international and local vendors in Africa
Figure 20.1: Leading metering vendors in Sub-Saharan Africa
Figure 20.2: El Sewedy Electrometer activity in Africa
Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown