Southeast Asia Smart Grid: Market Forecast

  • ID: 3669949
  • Report
  • Region: Asia
  • 184 Pages
  • Northeast Group, LLC
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Southeast Asia is a growing smart grid market that continues to show extensive progress and promises significant benefits for consumers and large opportunities for vendors by the end of this decade. Countries in the region continue to grow and electrify quickly, accelerating the benefits of smart grid and spurring governments to develop smart grid roadmaps and deployment plans. In recent years, smart grid deployments have begun in Singapore; Malaysia has set deployment plans for rolling out over 8 million AMI meters;Thailand has established numerous pilot projects that will total over 1 million AMI meters; and external aid has begun to support smart grid throughout the region. Overall, Southeast Asia still trails the developed countries and leading emerging market regions for smart grid potential, but in recent years, it has closed the gap significantly, and high growth ensures continued progress in the near term.

As a region, Southeast Asia has the highest projected GDP growth rate of all emerging smart grid markets, outside of China and India. All countries, except for Singapore and Thailand, will see GDP growth rates average near or above 5% per year through 2020. These high GDP growth rates are not guaranteed however, and will present structural, political, and social challenges to Southeast Asian countries. Understanding how these countries plan to manage their corresponding electricity demand growth is critical to understanding the role that smart grid infrastructure will play in Southeast Asia.

Implementing smart grid infrastructure can help Southeast Asian countries with high growth in ways beyond simply helping manage energy supply shortages through demand response and other programs. As these economies grow, existing grid infrastructure will increasingly prove insufficient, and power reliability will become more of an issue. Smart grid infrastructure throughout the transmission and distribution networks will help utilities proactively address weaknesses and maintain higher power quality and reliability.

Additionally, economic growth could lead to higher rates of non-technical losses as new customers are added to the grid and their bills increase due to higher consumption rates - this has already been seen in Laos and Vietnam. Currently, Southeast Asian countries have low-to-moderate theft rates when compared with other emerging markets, but without smart meters non-technical losses could grow alongside the overall economies.

In the past two years since the second volume of this study was published, many of these factors have already played out. Southeast Asian countries have grown as fast as previously projected, and smart grid activity has kept pace. Work has continued on projects in Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand, as well as new stronger regulations, particularly in Malaysia. Projects and policies like these are expected to increase throughout the region in the medium term, as all countries in the region will be facing challenges that smart grid infrastructure will be best placed to address. With stronger regulatory models to follow and indicators pointing towards greater savings from smart grid infrastructure, deployments will be well developed in all major Southeast Asian countries by early in the next decade.

Key questions answered in this study:

- Where are the newest smart grid announcements and deployments in Southeast Asia?
- How large will the smart grid market be in 9 countries across 15 sub-segments?
- What are utility deployment plans for the near-to-medium term?
- When will countries transition to prepaid AMI metering?
- Who are local vendors partnering with for smart grid projects?
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i. Executive summary

i.i What’s new in 2016?

i.ii Southeast Asia smart grid summary

i.iii Country summaries

ii. Methodology

1. Introduction
1.1 What is smart grid?
1.2 Smart grid’s role in regional interconnection
1.3 How has smart grid been used elsewhere in the world?

2. Southeast Asia smart grid snapshot
2.1 The region in comparison
2.2 Regional drivers
2.3 Regional challenges

3. Regional market forecast

4. Singapore
4.1 Electricity industry structure
4.2 Smart grid regulatory environment
4.3 Market forecast
4.4 Utility activity

5. Thailand
5.1 Electricity industry structure
5.2 Smart grid regulatory environment
5.3 Market forecast
5.4 Utility activity

6. Malaysia
6.1 Electricity industry structure
6.2 Smart metering regulatory environment
6.3 Market forecast
6.4 Utility activity

7. Philippines
7.1 Electricity industry structure
7.2 Smart grid regulatory environment
7.3 Market forecast
7.4 Utility activity

8. Indonesia
8.1 Electricity industry structure
8.2 Smart grid regulatory environment
8.3 Market forecast
8.4 Utility activity

9. Vietnam
9.1 Electricity industry structure
9.2 Smart grid regulatory environment
9.3 Market forecast
9.4 Utility activity

10. The rest of the region
10.1 Cambodia
10.2 Laos
10.3 Myanmar

11. Vendor activity
11.1 Domestic vendors
11.2 International vendors active in smart grid in Southeast Asia

12. Appendix
12.1 List of companies covered in this report
12.2 List of acronyms

List of Figures, Boxes, and Tables:
Southeast Asia smart grid: key takeaways
Changes in Southeast Asia smart meter potential
Notable smart grid activity in Southeast Asia in the past year
Recent smart grid projects and plans in Southeast Asia
Recent smart grid-related polices in Southeast Asia
Examples of external funding for smart grid in Southeast Asia
Smart city projects in Southeast Asia
Comparison to 2014 forecast
Main smart grid drivers and barriers in Southeast Asia
Global projected GDP growth (2016 - 2020)
Projected GDP growth in Southeast Asia (2016 - 2020)
Annual electricity demand growth in Southeast Asia
Smart grid roadmaps and planned activity in Southeast Asia
International meter vendor presence in smart grid-related projects in Southeast Asia
10-year added cost per kWh of smart metering in Southeast Asia
T&D losses in Southeast Asia
Smart grid progress in Singapore
Smart grid projects in Thailand
Projected annual AMI deployments at TNB
Smart grid forecast by country
Smart grid forecast data by country
Northeast Group Smart Grid Forecasting Model
Figure 1.1: Smart grid value chain
Figure 1.2: Smart grid model highlighting focus in Southeast Asia
Table 1.1: Benefits of AMI in Southeast Asia
Table 1.2: Demand response options
Figure 1.3: ASEAN grid interconnections
Figure 1.4: Global smart grid activity
Figure 1.5: Cumulative AMI investment by region up to 2016
Figure 1.6: Cumulative DA investment by region up to 2016
Figure 1.7: Cumulative AMI investment by region from 2016 - 2026
Figure 1.8: Cumulative DA investment by region from 2016 - 2026
Figure 2.1: Emerging markets smart meter potential
Figure 2.2: Per-capita electricity consumption
Figure 2.3: Per-capita CO2 emissions
Figure 2.4: Projected GDP growth (2016 - 2020)
Figure 2.5: Annual electricity demand growth in Southeast Asia
Figure 2.6: Renewable sources of energy in Southeast Asia
Figure 2.7: Renewable energy potential in 2030
Figure 2.8: T&D losses in Southeast Asia
Table 2.1: Smart grid market drivers and barriers in Southeast Asia
Figure 2.9: 10-year added cost per kWh of smart meter investments in Southeast Asia
Figure 2.10: Average smart grid regulatory scores in emerging markets
Figure 3.1: Southeast Asia AMI penetration rate
Figure 3.2: AMI penetration rate in Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand
Figure 3.3: Southeast Asia cumulative smart grid forecast by country
Table 3.1: Southeast Asia cumulative smart grid forecast data by country
Figure 3.4: Southeast Asia cumulative smart grid forecast
Table 3.2: Southeast Asia cumulative smart grid forecast data
Figure 3.5: Annual AMI deployments in Southeast Asia
Figure 3.6: AMI cost breakdown
Figure 3.7: Cumulative AMI forecast by segment
Table 3.3: Cumulative AMI forecast data by segment
Figure 3.8: Cumulative DA forecast by segment
Table 3.4: Cumulative DA forecast data by segment
Figure 3.9: Cumulative HEM forecast by segment
Table 3.5: Cumulative HEM forecast data by segment
Figure 3.10: Cumulative IT forecast by segment
Table 3.6: Cumulative IT forecast data by segment
Table 4.1: Singapore key data
Figure 4.1: Singapore AMI penetration rate
Table 4.2: Smart grid indicators in Singapore
Box 4.1: Political risk in Singapore
Figure 4.2: Singapore cumulative smart grid forecast
Table 4.3: Singapore cumulative smart grid forecast data
Figure 4.3: Singapore cumulative AMI forecast
Table 4.4: Singapore cumulative AMI forecast data
Figure 4.4: Smart grid progress in Singapore
Table 5.1: Thailand key data
Figure 5.1: Thailand AMI penetration rate
Table 5.2: Smart grid indicators in Thailand
Figure 5.2: Electricity industry structure in Thailand
Box 5.1: Political risk in Thailand
Table 5.3: Smart grid roadmaps in Thailand
Table 5.4: Thailand cumulative smart grid forecast data
Figure 5.3: Thailand cumulative smart grid forecast
Table 5.5: Thailand cumulative AMI forecast data
Figure 5.4: Thailand cumulative AMI forecast
Figure 5.5: PEA’s Pattaya smart grid project
Table 5.4: Smart grid projects in Thailand
Table 6.1: Malaysia key data
Figure 6.1: Malaysia AMI penetration rate
Table 6.2: Smart grid indicators in Malaysia
Box 6.1: Political risk in Malaysia
Figure 6.2: Smart grid plans at TNB in Malaysia
Figure 6.3: 5 strategic pillars of Malaysia’s New Energy Policy
Table 6.3: Feed-in tariff rates and installations in Malaysia
Figure 6.4: Malaysia cumulative smart grid forecast
Table 6.4: Malaysia cumulative smart grid forecast data
Figure 6.5: Malaysia cumulative AMI forecast
Table 6.5: Malaysia cumulative AMI forecast data
Figure 6.6: Projected annual AMI deployments at TNB
Table 6.6: TNB pilot project details
Table 6.7: TNB pilot project customer outreach
Table 7.1: Philippines key data
Figure 7.1: Philippines AMI penetration rate
Table 7.2: Smart grid indicators in the Philippines
Box 7.1: Political risk in the Philippines
Figure 7.2: Existing smart grid regulatory activity in the Philippines
Figure 7.3: Philippines cumulative smart grid forecast
Table 7.3: Philippines cumulative smart grid forecast data
Figure 7.4: Philippines cumulative AMI forecast
Table 7.4: Philippines cumulative AMI forecast data
Figure 7.5: MERALCO’s initial smart grid pilot
Table 7.5: USTDA smart grid activity in Philippines
Table 8.1: Indonesia key data
Figure 8.1: Indonesia AMI penetration rate
Table 8.2: Smart grid indicators in Indonesia
Box 8.1: Political risk in Indonesia
Figure 8.2: Feed-in tariffs in Indonesia
Figure 8.3: Planned solar installations in Indonesia
Figure 8.4: Indonesia cumulative smart grid forecast
Table 8.3: Indonesia cumulative smart grid forecast data
Figure 8.5: Indonesia cumulative AMI forecast
Table 8.3: Indonesia cumulative AMI forecast data
Figure 8.6: Annual meter deployments in Indonesia
Table 9.1: Vietnam key data
Figure 9.1: Vietnam AMI penetration rate
Table 9.2: Smart grid indicators in Vietnam
Box 9.1: Political risk in Vietnam
Figure 9.2: Electricity regulatory structure in Vietnam
Table 9.3: Vietnam cumulative smart grid forecast data
Figure 9.3: Vietnam cumulative smart grid forecast
Table 9.4: Vietnam cumulative AMI forecast data
Figure 9.4: Vietnam cumulative AMI forecast
Figure 9.5: Smart grid roadmap for EVN in Vietnam
Figure 9.6: Funding for T&D investments in Vietnam
Table 10.1: Cambodia key data
Figure 10.1: Cambodia AMI penetration rate
Figure 10.2: Electricity prices and GDP/capita in Southeast Asia
Figure 10.3: Cambodia cumulative smart grid forecast
Table 10.2: Cambodia cumulative smart grid forecast data
Figure 10.4: Cambodia cumulative AMI forecast
Table 10.3: Cambodia cumulative AMI forecast data
Table 10.4: Laos key data
Figure 10.5: Laos AMI penetration rate
Table 10.5: World Bank smart grid project in Laos
Figure 10.6: Laos cumulative smart grid forecast
Table 10.6: Laos cumulative smart grid forecast data
Figure 10.7: Laos cumulative AMI forecast
Table 10.7: Laos cumulative AMI forecast data
Table 10.8: Myanmar key data
Figure 10.8: Myanmar AMI penetration rate
Figure 10.9: Highest global T&D loss rates
Table 10.4: Myanmar cumulative smart grid forecast data
Figure 10.5: Myanmar cumulative smart grid forecast
Table 10.5: Myanmar cumulative AMI forecast data
Figure 10.6: Myanmar cumulative AMI forecast
Figure 11.1: Leading smart grid vendors in Southeast Asia
Figure 11.2: Market share of leading meter hardware vendors in Southeast Asia
Table 11.1: Other leading smart grid vendors in Southeast Asia
Figure 11.3: International meter vendor presence in in Southeast Asia
Table 11.2: Vendor partnerships and activity
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