Black Swan Events—9 Outrageous Predictions for 2016 and their Impact on Top Pump Companies - Product Image

Black Swan Events—9 Outrageous Predictions for 2016 and their Impact on Top Pump Companies

  • ID: 3675357
  • Report
  • Region: United States
  • 27 Pages
  • Frost & Sullivan
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Can Oil Hit Big and the US Economy Flounder? If So, How will it Impact Pump Companies?
In 2015, the price of crude oil, which was expected to stay above $100 per barrel for the next 5 years, nose-dived and is currently trading around $30 a barrel. This year, Donald Trump, who was dismissed as a complete outsider and someone who would not even stay in the race for US President, is a leading candidate. Although there are ample examples of volatility and unknown risks like the above, companies are still trying to apply existing forecasting analyses to develop short-term strategies. Caught in herd mentality, pump manufacturers often fail to see major events and get caught in reactionary mode. This research analyses 9 such extreme events and their possible impact on pump manufacturers.

Key Findings

- Although there are ample examples of volatility and unknown risks like below, companies are still trying to apply existing forecasting analyses to develop short-term strategies.

- Nassim Taleb, author of “The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable,” has pointed out the failure in current forecasting analyses. He terms events like these as “Black Swan Events” that follow 3 major attributes: rarity, extreme impact, and retrospective predictability.

- While most pump manufacturers forecast based on the assumption of expecting “more of the same,” anything but “the same” has occurred. This study looks at such extreme events and their possible impact on pump manufacturers.

- For example, many companies were caught unaware in the 2009 recession. The pump market declined by almost X%. Pump manufacturers tried “right-sizing” and production cuts. However, by the next year, the pent-up demand boosted the pump market by more than X%. Many pump manufacturers were then unable to take advantage of the bonanza.

- In this analysis, possible Black Swan Events that could affect the pumps market and the impact of these events on the top-10 pump companies are examined.

Predicted Events

- Strong dollar, weak everything else
- The Russian bear has a bull run
- Will the Olympic spirit lift Brazil?
- US political uncertainty
- Oil at $X : Will Iran finally break OPEC’s silence?
- Too many interest rate hikes spoil the economy
- China does a somersault
- Extreme weather impact
- App start-up crash pulls the market down
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1. Executive Summary
  • Key Findings
2. Market Overview
  • Black Swan Event - The Impact of the Highly Improbable
  • Black Swan Events
  • Strong Dollar, Weak Everything Else
  • The Russian Bear has a Bull Run
  • Will the Olympic Spirit Lift Brazil?
  • US Political Uncertainty
  • Oil at $100 - Will Iran Finally Break OPEC’s Silence?
  • Too Many Interest Rate Hikes Spoil the Economy
  • China Does a Somersault
  • Extreme Weather Impact
  • App Start-up Crash Pulls the Market Down
  • Impact on Top 10 Pump Manufacturers
  • Legal Disclaimer
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