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When Will Supply Deluge and Price Rout End, and Will Oil Top $50 by 2017?

  • ID: 3719638
  • Report
  • May 2016
  • Region: Global
  • 25 Pages
  • Frost & Sullivan
Continuing Market Uncertainty Puts Pressure on Global Crude Oil Price
This research service aims to analyze the key factors effecting the price of crude oil in the short term (2016–2017) and the expected price in the mid-term (2018–2019), as well as the impact on process equipment from 2015 to 2019. Research covers the demand-supply mismatch and positive factors driving the market such as declining CAPEX, production decline in North America, robust downstream demand, and the Saudi Arabia-Russia pact to freeze output. It also looks at negative factors such as surplus production, global growth, impact of Iran entering the market, and continuing political uncertainty. Based on these factors, the research examines possible price scenarios (2016–2019) and the resulting impact on the process equipment market.

Key Findings:

1. Decline in Capital Expenditure (CAPEX) and Shale Production

- In 2016, for the first time in the past 3 decades, end users will cut CAPEX investment for a second year in a row. Decline in CAPEX, along with project decline of US shale oil, will help stabilize crude oil price in the last quarter of 2016.

2. Surplus Production and Concerns on Global Growth

- Record-level production from Saudi Arabia and Russia, and uncertainty over Iran’s commitment to an output freeze negatively impact the price of crude oil. Slowing of economic global growth is another major factor negatively impacting the price.

3. Oil and Gas Continues to Hurt Process Equipment

- Declining oil prices will have significant impact on the market. As oil and gas is the largest end-user segment, this drop is expected to effect the process equipment market.

Regional Impact:

- North American shale oil and gas producers are the primary market participants effected. This has resulted in significant impact on the process equipment market.

- Latin America, already experiencing political and economic calamity, has also been significantly effected.

- The Middle East, especially Saudi Arabia, is focused on increasing production and hence provides the short-term opportunity for process equipment.

- Asia-Pacific is moderately impacted as major countries in this region are large oil and gas importers.
Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
1.Executive Summary
  • Key Findings
2.Research Scope and Objective

3.Oil and Gas Industry - Factors Effecting Price
  • Positive Factors
  • Negative Factors
  • Factors Driving Uncertainty
4.Crude Oil Price Expectations and Impact on Process Equipment
  • Crude Oil Price Expectations - Short-term CAPEX Investments
  • Impact on Process Equipment
  • The Last Word - 3 Key Takeaways
  • Legal Disclaimer
Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown