Powertrain and Electric Vehicle Market: Future Implications

  • ID: 3725938
  • Report
  • Region: Global
  • 42 Pages
  • Frost & Sullivan
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Global Decline in Diesel Cars Due to Taxation and Low Emission Zones in Major Markets
This study highlights passenger-car fuel trends in Europe, China, Japan, North America, India, South America, and South Korea and discusses changes in engine count and engine displacement in the automotive industry. The study also provides an overview and implementation roadmap of the New European Driving Cycle (NEDC) and World Harmonized Light Vehicle Test Procedures (WLTP) cycle.

Strategic powertrain technologies necessary for carbon-dioxide reduction in Europe are also highlighted, and the impact of exhaust after-treatment solutions on diesel cars has also been discussed. The study concludes with a European voice-of-consumer study, which analyses consumer preferences towards gasoline, diesel, hybrid, and electric engines.

Key Findings:

- European Outlook: The European market will continue to penalize diesel engines in the short to medium term; but, breakthrough achievements in improving diesel after-treatment efficiency levels will help diesel engines get back their lost market stance to an extent. Gasoline and diesel engines are likely to decline by approximately – X% and – X% of respectively, giving way to plug-in hybrids, battery electric vehicles, and to an extent, full hybrids as well.

- North American Outlook: The most significant trend that North America is likely to witness in the long term is a boost of Zero-emission Vehicles (ZEV) from California and other states actively following the ZEV mandate. Gasoline-fuelled powertrains are expected to lose - X% of their market share, giving a major chunk of it to hybrids, plug-in hybrids, and battery electric vehicles.

- LATAM Outlook: LATAM will continue being dominated by flex-fuel engines and architecture; the growth of alternative powertrain solutions is expected to be significant by 2020, with improved regulatory framework and improvements in local manufacturing and sourcing. Flex-fuel vehicles will continue to grow and diesel is expected to continue at a minority of - X% penetration in the market.

- South Korea Outlook: South Korea has one of the toughest targets ahead in terms of fuel economy; the 2020 target is X miles per gallon. Diesel powertrains are expected to have - X% growth in market share, as the after-treatment sector gets further efficiency upgrades. LPG engines will dip by - X%, shifting towards hybridized powertrains to a larger extent and battery electric vehicles.

- China Outlook: In China, the NEV incentive program and additional taxation on ICEs will put additional focus on plug-in and battery electric vehicles. China has fallen considerably short of its NEV sales target for 2015, but is expected to pick up in the future. The prime driver for this sales boost in the years to come is the many incentive schemes that offer customers up to $X on purchase of NEVs and give free license plates to qualified vehicles that meet specific criteria. These incentive schemes are expected to run through 2020 (in decreasing scale) aiming at replacing more pure ICEs with cleaner vehicles.

- Japanese Outlook: Japan will also continue to offer purchase incentives scaling up to approximately $X on green vehicles; however, the time period for which this system will continue is unclear. The charging infrastructure (which is larger than the conventional gas filling station network of more than X charging points against X gas filling stations) and the investments being made are expected to make electric propulsion preferred over conventional gasoline ICEs by 2022.

- Indian Outlook: The fuel-price gap between gasoline and diesel in India has been narrowing but diesel prices are also getting competitive. In 2022, the share of gasoline–diesel powertrains is also going to be influenced by future fuel price levels, which are quite volatile. However, boosted and high efficiency gasoline engines are going to enter India in the medium term; this will work in its favour. The level of diesel powertrain investments that Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) are going to make in countries such as India, as more developed countries turn increasingly anti-diesel will also influence the market. Electrified powertrains are likely to become popular if there is continuity of incentive schemes for purchase and infrastructure development, together with governmental efforts to improve manufacturing and supply-chain capabilities
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1. 2015 Overview of Powertrain Trends
  • Electric Vehicle Segmentation
  • Global Powertrain Mix- Unit Shipment by Region
  • Global Powertrain Mix- Unit Shipment by Region Explained
  • Diesel Powertrain Sales Outlook for Europe- Retrospection and Future
  • European Powertrain Market- Diesel versus Gasoline
  • Air Quality Concerns and Risks- Europe, 2020 Outlook
  • Global IC Engine Outlook- Cylinder Count Scenario
  • Global IC Engine Outlook- Engine Displacement Scenario
  • Test Procedures and Differentiation
  • Regulation Roadmap with Emissions
  • Timeline for Implementation of the WLTP in the European Union
  • Parameters and Potential Impact- NEDC to WLTP Conversion
  • Parameters with Potential Impact with NEDC to WLTP Conversion
  • Electrified Vehicles Sales- By Region and Hybridization Type
  • Electric Vehicle Sales 2015
2. Key Powertrain Strategies to Comply with CO2 Regulation (95g/km)
  • OEMs and CO2 Numbers- Class M1
  • CO2 Emission Control- Retrospection and Future Outlook
  • Europe- Internal Combustion Engine Technology Forecasts
  • Production Forecast and Types of Split- Electrified Powertrains
  • Cost-benefit Analysis of CO2 Reduction Technologies
3. Outlook of Exhaust After-treatment Strategies
  • Global Diesel After-treatment System- Adoption Hot Spots
  • Roadmap of OEM Exhaust After-treatment Strategies
4. 2015 European Voice-of-Consumer Survey
  • Voice of Consumer Survey
  • Legal Disclaimer
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