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Flash and XPoint Memory Applications and Markets 2016-2022

  • ID: 3743208
  • Report
  • 358 Pages
  • Web-Feet Research
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Serial NOR should see a Strong Rebound to Over $4B in Establishing the Connection for the Internet of Things in Over 50 Billion Intelligent Connected Devices By 2022

The fifteenth annual report on Flash and XPoint Memory Applications and Markets, (CS100XFA-2018). This extensive update provides an integrated memory/storage end-use market segmentation in the consumer, mobile and computing markets and forecasts the NAND, NOR and XPoint/NVRAM usage in over 195 end-use applications.  Some of the new applications forecast are: sensors and gateways for smart cities, server-side NVRAM DIMMs, the rise of Edge computing to offload the Data Center, and Level 3 autonomous vehicles.

As the Flash/NVM technology evolved intelligently so did its markets. Beginning with basic media file storage in consumer applications NAND grew in usage. Mobile storage in Smart phones needs more sophisticated Flash in performing execute-in-place and more reliable storage. Computing requires the utmost performance from the block addressable NAND to using XPoint/NVRAM as byte persistent SCM merges working data with hot storage to enable high capacity in-memory computing. As a side thought, serial NOR should see a strong rebound to over $4B in establishing the connection for the Internet of Things in over 50 billion intelligent connected devices by 2022.

In the Flash and XPoint Memory Applications and Markets forecast, the research provides a density breakout by revenue, units, and Mbits/Gbits for NAND (SLC, MLC, TLC, eMLC, SPI, Combo (MCP) NAND); 3D NAND (MLC, TLC); NOR, MLC NOR, serial NOR, Combo NOR and serial Combo NOR; and XPoint/NVRAM Memory.  The forecast period includes 2016-2017 historical and 2018-2022 projections.  A special section breaks out the serial NOR by over 50 applications including the major use of quad/plus IO serial NOR components.  In addition, the compute market examines the use of Flash cache, Serverside SSDs and storage SSDs for the client and cloud/datacenter/enterprise end-use markets.  The GB consumption is also forecast by memory/storage end-use market and shows when computing becomes the Flash consumption market share leader.  Finally, the 2017 Flash Market Shares by Vendor is included showing how the players have changed position based on acquisitions and pricing to reach over $50 billion in total Flash. 

On the vertical front, 3D NAND designs are the next extension of NAND capacity. There are two design philosophies for 3D NAND, either use a Trap Charge to store the charged electron or use a Floating gate that is in all planar NAND. Samsung, the first vendor to ship 3D NAND, is in their fifth generation of V-NAND production using Trap Charge. Their 3D NAND roadmap like all other vendors is predominantly 3-bit or TLC V-NAND being made in higher capacities by progressively stacking layers ranging from 32, 48, 64, 96 and 128 layers+.  Currently, Samsung is producing TLC 512Gbit density V-NAND at 64 layers that is shipping in their full line of SSDs. SanDisk/Toshiba believe their BiCS (Trap Charge) is more efficient and in 2018 are shipping 512Gbit also at 64 layers in commercial volumes. Micron and Intel are shipping their 64-layer 3D NAND development based on Floating gate NAND technology that they claim is 20% cheaper with the logic built under the array thus easier to stack. SK Hynix is shipping a Trap Charge 72-layer TLC 3D NAND at 512Gbit. Lastly, the Chinese are developing 3D NAND and plan to ship 32-layer in 2018-19. Every NAND vendor has a 3D NAND density roadmap moving to 768Gbit, 1Tbit, 1.5Tbit and 2Tbit in the next five years.

On the technology front for NOR Flash, the 512Mbit, 1Gbit and some 2Gbit serial NOR are shipping; in addition, these can run at high speed (up to 400MB/s).  For planar NAND, the 3-bit TLC NAND has been mastered by all vendors and have included 3-bit usage into SSD production. All planar NAND has slowed technology node shrinks pausing at a 1ynm node between 16-15nm, with a 2-bit and 3-bit 128Gbit planar.  Overall, there are some issues with the NAND process migrating below 1z node on a planar basis, but these may be resolved with some vendor roadmaps migrating to 14-12nm and densities at 256Gbit.

The End-Use market chapter forecasts over ninety end-use markets using over 195 individual applications that supply the individual inputs for revenue, units, and Megabits/Gigabits that are consolidated to build the ‘bottoms-up’ demand forecast. The Internet of Things has become ubiquitous, so to provide more definition within each use market a sub-segment of IoT helps to organize usage.  In the mobile market, smart phones are still one of the largest Flash applications even with some softening of demand. Within the mobility sub-segment of Wearables the AppleWatch / Smartwatch, fitness-type wearables and Augmented/Virtual Reality glasses are expected to increase demand in the second half of the forecast.  Consumer applications are segmented into Personal IoT and Connected Home where Digital cameras, Media Players, along with camcorders, photo albums, television and Set top Boxes and all other games and consumer devices are maintaining a healthy share of Flash consumption. Client computing focuses on SSDs in notebooks and tablets, along with desktops and nettops. Data Center and Cloud computing covers Enterprise storage SSDs in nine application market niches and server-side Flash and XPoint/NVRAM memory/storage. Automotive is covered for Serial NOR, SLC/SPI NAND, EFD (eMMC/UFS), and SSD, which usage projected for the levels of Autonomous Car implementation.

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1 Key Findings                                                     

2 Methodology                                                    

3 Flash NVM Memory Market Forecast          
3.1 Overall Flash/XPoint Memory Market Forecast
3.2 NOR, NAND and XPoint Shipments
3.3 End-Use Market Shipments
3.4 Flash Revenue Forecast by Geographic Region
3.5 Flash Revenue by Voltage

4 A Market Perspective on Mobile Storage   
4.1 The Electronic Device Market
4.1.1 Function-based Market Segmentation
4.1.2 Device-based Market Segmentation
4.1.3 Use Model-based Market Segmentation 
4.1.4 Memory/Storage Function-based Market Segmentation
4.1.5 Market Segmentation Summary
4.2 Market Segmentation Summary for Memory / Storage
4.3 IoT to Data Center – Memory/Storage Market Segmentation 

5 A System Architecture Perspective on Mobile Computing                                                      
5.1 Market-Driven System Architecture Development 
5.2 System Architecture Impact on Mobile Storage

6 A System Architecture View to Memory/Storage Convergence                     
6.1 Memory/Storage Convergence Enables Hybrid Cognitive Computing
6.1.1 System Architecture Assumptions
6.2 Positioning SCM within Storage Systems
6.3 Working Memory and Hot Storage Merge

7 End-Use Markets                                             
7.1 Serial NOR End-Use Markets
7.2 Mobility End-Use Market
7.2.1 Cell Phones
7.2.2 Bluetooth I/O
7.2.3 Wearable Cameras, AR/VR Glasses
7.2.4 Watch
7.2.5 Wearables Fitness
7.3 CONSUMER                                                   
7.4 Personal IoT
7.4.1 Digital Cameras
7.4.2 Digital Camcorder
7.4.3 Digital Voice Recorders
7.4.4 MP3 Music Players
7.4.5 Personal Media Player
7.4.6 Photo Albums
7.4.7 Electronic Books, Directories
7.4.8 Games – Handheld, Portable, Organizers, and Dictionaries
7.4.9 Toys
7.4.10 Projectors
7.5 Connected Home IoT
7.5.1 Digital Home (Internet of Things)
7.5.2 Television
7.5.3 Set Top Box
7.5.4 DVD ROM and Players / Recorders
7.5.5 Blu Ray DVD ROM and Players / Recorders
7.5.6 UHD DVD Players and Recorders
7.5.7 Games - Consoles
7.5.8 Fax, Word Processors, Office Machines
7.5.9 Cordless/DECT/VoIP Phones
7.6 COMPUTING                                                    
7.7 CLIENT COMPUTING                                    
7.7.1 Personal Computer, Workstation, Server, and Notebooks
7.7.2 Notebook Computing – Flash Cache and SSD
7.7.3 Tablets/iPad
7.7.4 Netbooks
7.7.5 Nettops
7.7.6 Printers
7.7.7 Webcams
7.7.8 LCD/LED Monitors
7.7.9 Modems
7.7.10 Audio and Graphic Cards
7.8 Cloud / Enterprise Computing                         
7.8.1 Servers
7.8.2 Servers – Side Storage
7.8.3 Solid State Drives (SSD)
7.8.4 Hard Disk Drives
7.8.5 Network Systems – NIC, Hub, Router, Switches, ATM
7.8.6 Network Memory Modules
7.9 TRANSPORTATION                                  
7.9.1 Automotive
7.9.2 Digital Radio
7.9.3 Global Positioning Systems (GPS)
7.9.4 UAV / Drones
7.10 INDUSTRIAL (Internet of Things) 
7.10.1 Meters, Sensors, Embedded, Controllers, Signage, Kiosks, Point-Of-Sale
7.10.2 Smart Cities: Smart Buildings, Infrastructure, Utilities, Network Computing
7.10.3 Games – Arcade
7.10.4 3D Printers
7.11 GOVERNMENT                          
7.11.1 Data Recorder, Inflight Entertainment/Communications, Guidance, Command & Control, Combat Computer Systems, Security / Identity Tags 

8 Flash Shipments                                    
8.1 Flash/XPoint Revenue Shipments by Density
8.1.1 NOR Revenue Shipments
8.1.2 Serial Flash Revenue Shipments
8.1.3 XPoint/NVRAM Memory Flash Revenue Shipments
8.1.4 NAND Revenue Shipments
8.1.5 Combo Revenue Shipments
8.2 Flash Unit Shipments
8.2.1 NOR Flash Unit Shipments
8.2.2 ML NOR Flash Unit Shipments
8.2.3 Serial Flash Unit Shipments
8.2.4 SCM Memory – XPoint/NVRAM Unit Shipments
8.2.5 NAND Flash Unit Shipments
8.2.6 ML NAND Flash Unit Shipments
8.2.7 TL, 3D and eML NAND Flash Unit Shipments
8.2.8 SPI NAND Flash Unit Shipments
8.2.9 Combo Flash Unit Shipments
8.3 Flash Average Selling Price
8.3.1 NOR Flash ASP
8.3.2 ML NOR Flash ASP
8.3.3 Serial Flash ASP
8.3.4 XPoint/NVRAM ASP
8.3.5 NAND Flash ASP
8.3.6 ML NAND ASPs
8.3.7 TL, 3D and eML NAND ASPs
8.3.9 Combo Flash ASPs
8.4 Flash Shipments by Gigabits/Megabits
8.5 Flash Megabit Shipments by Density
8.6 Flash Price per Megabit/GB by Density

9 Flash Memory Market Shares by Vendor  

10 Appendix A                                                   

11 Appendix B: Biography                           

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Analysis and Reporting Methodology

The Flash and XPoint Memory Applications and Markets Forecast report includes a variety of methodologies for different sections of this report.  On the application side, many application companies were surveyed, Flash manufacturers, and other vendors to obtain the application forecasts.  Utilizing this information, a ‘bottoms-up’ Flash demand forecast was developed by projecting over ninety end-use application unit forecasts and the associated internal Flash components, Embedded Flash Drives, Flash-Solid State Drive / DIMM and XPoint-SSDs / DIMMs memory content for each of these end-use applications.  Concurrently, the research uses a macro-model based on the Flash Memory Reporting Association (FMRA) that summaries and forecasts, and then projects a ‘tops-down’ demand forecast to cross check the ‘bottoms-up’ results.  These two forecasts are then reconciled to one overall Flash demand forecast. 

For the XPoint demand model this forecast uses the ‘Macro’ guidance from Intel/Micron to project the initial productization of XPoint on a component basis for density, performance and an estimated cost. XPoint/NVRAM is positioned as a Storage Class Memory (SCM) close to DRAM as type of non volatile RAM or persistent memory. It is currently too expensive to be a NAND replacement except for extreme performance applications. In this regard, the initial products for the first generation of XPoint are high performance NVMe SSDs for gamers, long term for mobile and configuring XPoint/NVRAM in a DIMM card for select Cloud, Data Centers and HPC computing. XPoint and NVRAM DIMM card modules plug into the Xeon server memory bus slot and interface to DDR4 DRAM DIMM, thereby providing 128GB to 512GB per DIMM memory capacity to each server node slot.

Within the ‘bottoms-up’ demand forecast, each application has the Flash and XPoint revenue, units, and Megabits (Mbits)/Gigabits (Gbits) calculated and then consolidated into the overall totals for each year of the forecast.  The revenue, units and Mbits/Gbits for NOR, NAND Flash and XPoint/NVRAM memory are calculated separately for density and then summarized for each application.

The research was able to use the FMRA summary of revenue, units, Mbits, and ASPs segmented by NOR and NAND Flash types.  This data was submitted by the top 15 Flash manufacturers in 2015, 2016 and 2017 to establish the baseline of the Flash memory market size.  These FMRA baselines provide density breakouts from 512Kbit-2Tbit for each Flash memory type including NOR, MLC NOR, Serial NOR, NAND, MLC NAND, TLC NAND, eML NAND, SPI NAND, 3D NAND, XPoint, NVRAM and Combo (Flash + xRAM) NOR and Combo NAND devices.  In conclusion, the research compares the forecasts between the FMRA baseline and the WSTS-based projections.  

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