This report will describe the needs technology challenges by analysing how systems will need to adapt (Routers, servers, base-stations etc.) and how supporting technologies such as ICs, PCBs, Laminates and optical interconnect technology; where applicable will be required to facilitate this next stage of the internet.
In previous high speed reports the focus has been on the core and metro access parts of the Datacoms and Telecoms infrastructure. Traditionally this was looked after by the regional Telco’s and was deployed with voice communications in mind. For them and for particularly companies such as AT&T the challenge was to manage voice traffic in real time.
Systems were developed where capacity reflected peak loading but the size of the “data” was small, double digit Kb. In fact a text message is around 20kb. Adding a photo increase this by an order of magnitude namely 350Kb. A one minute video increases this again by an order of magnitude to 4Mb. A one minute High Definition recording is 1GB. The uploading and downloading of this type of data is driving the demand for increased bandwidth.
In 2008 a disruptive technology came along. The iphone 3Gs and it heralded the start of mobile broadband where in addition to voice traffic people were sending and receiving media files such as photos.
The download side was mainly from accessing the internet. Other disruptive services included:
- Online storage of personal media
- Media download and distribution
- Cloud Storage
And latterly Cloud computing. Here analysis and data manipulation initially termed e-commerce embraced such computational functions such as online payments. Enterprises started outsourcing their networks, which was facilitated by the fall in the cost of memory/storage, which lead to the rise of the Datacenter (DC). This rise is core to the future trends for high speed systems, components and materials
Summary of the Key Trends:
- Video upload as well as download will result in the exponential increase in band width demand from the fixed and wireless high speed Datacomms infrastructure.
- The rise of outsourcing computing power to DC’s and Hyper DC’s will drive the need for cost effective non-proprietary high speed systems, subassemblies and components.
- Investment in High Speed Communications infrastructure by the Telecoms companies by 2020 and will be matched by the ISPs at approximately $90Bn for each of these sectors.
- 100Gbps link design will be influenced by HDC/DCs and will shift the technology focus from Coherent Laser to Direct Detect from 2017 onwards.
- QSPF 28+ packages will be an enabling technology for lower power transceivers to keep in check the ever rising power budget for HDC’s and DC’s.
- DC’s are going to utilize more white box solutions with often all fiber being lit on start up. This would lead to a major DC refresh every 3 years with whole units being replaced rather than individual racks.
- Moving forward OPEX is a larger cost than CAPEX for DC’s influencing the selection of lower operating cost technology that build in redundancy or upgradeability.
A key consideration of a DC is the power requirement. So as not to be reliant on a single power source, large data centres will be built in clusters requiring for speed and latency 100Gb and within 5 years 200Gb links
- Serial data rates across high-speed system backplanes and line cards will increase from 10Gbps to 20-25Gbps enabling 100Gbps links using the Carrier Ethernet standard, IEEE802.3ba.
- Meanwhile higher serial data rates to enable 5 x 20Gbps or 4 x 25Gbps across a copper backplane are proving a challenge in terms of silicon development and IC packaging, board design and fabrication, thermal management and test.
- The power budget for systems having multiple high-speed serial data channels will also add to the whole life costs of such systems. Future generations will require 50Gbps serial data to support the next generation standard for 400GbE.
- In particular, silicon photonics will be a key enabler in handling 100Gbps and upwards. A key development will be Inphi’s /Microsoft’s Transceiver.
- Wireless communications developments will also be driven by faster data rates and new base station modules and components to support LTE and backhaul will be required. 5G will see the development of new radios and utilization of the frequency bands above 30GHz. Those below 6GHz will be optimized for transmitting data (with the growth of the IoT) from interconnected devices which will number over 20million in 2020.
- Research Methodology
2. Executive Summary
3. Key Drivers
- Wireless And Mobile
- Enterprise And Data Centres
4. Legacy High-Speed Systems
- Routers And Switches
5. Data Centres And Enterprise Servers
- Data Centres And Hyperscale Data Centres
- Enterprise Servers
6. Wireless Communications Infrastructure
7. Portable Terminals
- Technology Trends
8. Subassemblies Components And Materials
- Emerging Semiconductor Technologies For Photonics
- Packaging Of Optical Transceiver Modules
- Semiconductors For Electronics And Their Package Types
- Substrates And Low-Loss Laminates
9. Market Forecasts
- Portable Terminals
- Transceiver Modules
10. Conclusion And Opportunities
- Identification of the markets, applications, equipment types and vendors for high-speed systems.
- Identification of the driving forces for each of the markets identified, and where appropriate, for each system within that market segment.
- For each high-speed system identified, a system technology roadmap from 2015 through to 2020 will be produced, showing the technology trends for these systems.
- A review of the implications that the technology/systems requirements have on the use of substrates, laminates and IC packaging within these systems.
- The advantages and disadvantages of electrical and optical interconnection technologies for high-speed systems, and how they may complement each other. A review of recent developments in intra-system high-speed electrical and optical technologies, together with the identification of the organisations involved.
- Forecasts of the market value and volume for key systems in each market segment from 2015 through 2020. This will include:
- High-end routers
- Wireless base stations
- Blade Servers
- High End Servers for Enterprises and Datacentres
- Identification of the specific requirements of each type of high-speed system affecting substrates.
- Identification of substrate material types suitable for meeting high-speed and high band width requirements. The key attributes of these materials will be defined and the opportunities quantified.
- The technology trends for both electrical and optical high-speed substrates will be examined in terms of material and technical characteristics and their applicability to the systems under investigation.
- Technology roadmaps will be developed for substrate materials identifying the key technical characteristic affected including:
a) Dielectric constant
b) Loss tangent
c) Dimensional stability
d) Moisture absorption
e) Peel strength
f) Electrical or optical characteristics
- Market forecasts will be provided by material type identified from 2016 through to 2021.
- The impact that high-speed interconnection solutions has on IC Package interconnection and attachment will be reviewed, together with the identification of the optimum solutions.
- The role of materials within high-speed IC packaging will be examined, together with the requirements. Leading suppliers of these materials will be identified along with what impact their developments will have.
- Technology roadmaps will be provided for Optoelectronic Packages identifying the key technical characteristic affected.