Highlights of the report:
24 countries are identified as emerging space programs (ESPs) in 2015 having launched a total of 69 satellites in the last 20 years. As satellite technology has become more accessible and affordable, the number of countries investing in their first satellite system has increased dramatically. 2015 set an all-time record with nine satellites launched, confirming the dynamism of this market.
By 2025, it is estimated that the number of emerging space programs will increase to 47 countries around the world. This includes 23 newcomers who will have committed their first investment in space between 2016 and 2025. 131 satellites are forecasted to be launched in the next 10 years, nearly double that of the last decade. The total value of these satellites is estimated at nearly $12 billion, versus more than $5 billion during 2006-2015.
This edition has developed a new index which aims to model the probability for a new country to invest in a satellite system. The ESP Index is based on a three part process consisting of data gathering, analysis, and ranking of 148 countries. The index is based on factors deemed to be relevant to evaluating the start of a space program. The relevance of the ESP Index was verified with a "reality check" by reviewing the score of countries that have already launched or ordered a satellite.
Another innovative feature of the report is a targeted survey completed with a selection of countries, part of the 24 countries identified as "already active" ESPs. The questionnaire was aimed to collect primary information on the countries' experience in implementing a satellite program, their strategy, benefits and lessons learned. The survey results, along with the collection of public information and our own expert knowledge, are combined to establish a benchmark of emerging space programs.
Countries considered as Emerging Space Programs (ESPs) include all countries having launched their first satellite (>50 kg) after 1996, i.e. within the last two decades. Countries having launched satellites before that year are therefore not considered as ESPs and are not in the scope of this report.
Analysis, data and estimates rely on two complementary approaches:
- In-depth research and data collection on all countries in the scope of the study including official reports, press releases, news articles and industry white papers. Further, we relied on our continuous research on the satellite sector and government programs.
- Survey of a selection of countries on the basis of a questionnaire with detailed information collected on their programs, strategy pursued and lessons learned.
Finally, a dedicated index covering 148 countries has been developed to measure the likelihood for a new country to invest in a satellite system. The ESP Index models multiple metrics and can be used as a tool to monitor opportunities worldwide.
- Evolution of emerging space programs
- Emerging space programs worldwide
- World map of emerging programs in 2005
- World map of emerging programs in 2015
- Two generations of emerging space programs
- Satellites launched by application
- Satellites launched by region
- Programs funding
- Satellite asset value
- The ESP Index
- Forecast scenario
2. Benchmarking Emerging Space Programs
- The survey
- Profile of investment
- Procurement models
- Make/do or buy
- Requirements for acquisition
- Profile of assets
3. Application Focus
- Earth observation: Key programs
- Earth observation: Applications targeted
- Earth observation: Key suppliers
- Earth observation: Strategic issues
- Satellite communications: Key programs
- Satellite communications: Applications targeted
- Satelllite communications: Key suppliers
- Satellite communications: Strategic issues
4. Regional Focus
Asia - Central Asia - Latin America - Middle East & Africa
Each regional overview includes:
- By country, number and type of active and on-order satellites
- Best opportunities for future satellite capacity according to the ESP Indes
- Listing of satellites in operation or development
- Number of satellites launched by application
- Funding by application, 2006-2015 & 2016-2025
The author has developed an index which aims at modelling the probability for a new coutnry to invest in a satellite system. The ESP Index is based on a three part process consisting of data gathering, analysis, and ranking of 148 countries. Countries with a space program already in place before 1996 were excluded from the analysis, as well as those for which insufficient data was available to arrive at an accurate overall evaluation (essentially very small/insular countries).
The index is based on factors deemed to be relevant to evaluating the start of a space program. Factors were equalized and weighted based on their level of "desirability," which are (by order of importance):
- GPD: Higher GDP implies greater investment capability in a space program
- Natural resources on GDP: Satellite technology is more attractive for countries with a national economy depending on natural resources
- Neighbor Effect: The fact that a neighboring country has launched satellites is an incentive to develop satellite capacity
- Population: Countries with large populations are more inclined to exercise leadership in their region
- GDP per capita: Countries with high GDP per capita are more inclined to invest in technology sectors
- Population Density: Satellite technology is considered more attractive in terms of infrastructure costs for areas with lower population density
In order to benchmark emerging space programs, an innovative approach was followed mixing the collection of public information, expert knowledge and primary information collected via a dedicated survey.
Considering the type of information targeted for this report, a specific interview process was designed, similarly to those performed for a consulting mission. The objective was to undertake a targeted survey with a limited number of countries.
a selection of countries accepted to participate in the survey. All of them have already launched a satellite and are part of the 24 countries identified as "already active" ESPs.
In agreement with them, their identity has not been disclosed in order to protect the confidentiality of the information.
The questionnaire was distributed into three parts. Questions involved a mix of ansewr type - multiple choice or open, qualitative and quantitative, ranking and scoring, etc.
Part 1: Experience in implementing a satellite program
- How many satellites
- - Have you launched?
- - Do you operate today?
- - Do you intend to operate by 2025?
- Information on missions launched
- Information on mission
- What is your current annual budget? Do you expect it to grow, decrease or remain stable in the coming years?
- From your experience, could you breakdown the typical investment in a satellite program?
Part 2: Strategy and models pursued
- In which year was your organization/agency created?
- What is the overall mandate given to your organization/agency?
- What is the rationale for your government to invest in space?
- Could you rank the interest of your country between applications? What has been the model pursued to finance your space program so far?
- How have you pursued the following activities so far (manufacturing, operations, services)?
Part 3: Benefits and lessons learned
- Who are the primary users of your satellite system(s)?
- What are your main requirements related to the procurement of your satellites?
- What is your level of satisfaction regarding these domains?
- In general, what have been the biggest challenges you've met when implementing your program(s)?