Emerging Asia-Pacific Telecoms Market: Interim Forecast Update 2015-2020

  • ID: 3788959
  • Report
  • 26 pages
  • Analysys Mason Group
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Telecoms Service Revenue is Forecast to Grow at 2.1% CAGR for Between 2014 and 2020

"Mobile handset data, fixed broadband, IPTV and M2M will be the key revenue drivers in emerging Asia–Pacific between 2015 and 2020."

The telecoms markets of the emerging Asia–Pacific (EMAP) region are at different stages of development. However, the proliferation of smartphones, the expansion of high-speed 3G and 4G networks, and the increasing popularity of OTT apps will be the main reasons for the decline of traditional revenue streams (voice and messaging) in all these countries. On the other hand, mobile data and fixed broadband will among the key drivers of telecoms market growth in the region.

This report provides:

- an interim update of our 5-year forecast (Emerging Asia–Pacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2015–2020), published in October 2015) of more than 100 mobile and fixed KPIs for EMAP as a whole and for ten key countries
- an explanation of the significant changes in this edition, compared with our previous forecasts.

Revisions to our previous forecasts occurred mainly for the following reasons:

- market developments – based on recent events and latest reported operator and regulator data (2Q 2015)
- changes to the competitive and regulatory environment
- changes to the macroeconomic outlook and exchange rates used to derive revenue in constant US dollars
- changes to historical data because of newly available information.

Data coverage

Connections

Mobile

- Handset, broadband, M2M
- Prepaid, contract
- 2G, 3G, 4G
- Smartphone, non-smartphone

Fixed
- Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up
- Narrowband voice, VoBB
- DSL, FTTH/B, cable, BFWA, other

Revenue

Mobile

- Service, retail
- Prepaid, contract
- Handset, broadband, M2M
- Handset voice, messaging, data

Fixed

- Service, retail
- Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up, BNS
- DSL, FTTH/B, cable, BFWA, other

Fixed and mobile voice traffic

- Outgoing minutes
- MoU

Mobile ARPU

- SIMs, handset
- Prepaid, contract
- Handset voice, data

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Chapter Numbers.

5. Introduction
6. Executive summary and regional forecasts
7. Mobile handset data and mobile broadband will make important contributions to telecoms service revenue during the forecast period
8. Mobile handset data and broadband will be the growth engines of telecoms operators’ revenue, making up for losses in traditional services
9. Smartphones and LTE: 63% of handsets will be smartphones and 37% of connections will be LTE by 2020
10. Key regional changes since our previous forecast: Mobile handsets, data and broadband revenue will grow more quickly
11. Forecast revision: Telecoms retail revenue in 2020 will be hindered by declining growth in the mobile voice and messaging segments
12. Individual country forecasts
13. Bangladesh: 3G connections will continue to grow, but price competition will reduce ARPU
14. China: The economic downturn, government-led tariff reductions and increased competition will affect telecoms retail revenue
15. India: Increasing smartphone penetration and mobile subscribers have boosted our forecast for mobile service revenue by 4%
16. Indonesia: 4G network roll-out and adoption will continue to grow during the forecast period
17. Malaysia: Increased 4G adoption will boost operators’ revenue in the medium term, but price competition will erode it later
18. Pakistan: 3G take-up will boost telecoms retail revenue
19. Philippines: A new addition to our EMAP coverage, where the level of text messaging usage is one of the highest in the world
20. Sri Lanka: Competition between operators regarding 4G tariffs will dampen service revenue growth
21. Thailand: Smartphones will gain a higher share of connections driven by demand for postpaid subscriptions and mobile Internet
22. Vietnam: VoLTE and VoWiFi will ease the decline of mobile voice

List of figures

Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), emerging Asia–Pacific, 2010–2020
Figure 2: Telecoms retail revenue growth by service type, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2014–2020
Figure 3: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and LTE’s share of total connections (excluding M2M), emerging Asia–Pacific, 2014 and 2020
Figure 4: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast for emerging Asia–Pacific
Figure 5: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue, previous and new forecasts, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2014 and 2020
Figure 6: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2014–2020
Figure 7: Connections by type, and growth rates, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2014–2020
Figure 8: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Bangladesh, 2010–2020
Figure 9: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Bangladesh
Figure 10: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, China, 2010–2020
Figure 11: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, China
Figure 12: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, India, 2010–2020
Figure 13: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, India
Figure 14: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Indonesia, 2010–2020
Figure 15: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Indonesia
Figure 16: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Malaysia, 2010–2020
Figure 17: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Malaysia
Figure 18: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Pakistan, 2010–2020
Figure 19: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Pakistan
Figure 20: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), historical and forecast, Philippines, 2010–2020
Figure 21: Summary of key market drivers and assumptions, Philippines
Figure 22: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Sri Lanka, 2010–2020
Figure 23: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Sri Lanka
Figure 24: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Thailand, 2010–2020
Figure 25: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Thailand
Figure 26: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Vietnam, 2010–2020
Figure 27: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Vietnam

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  •  Bangladesh
  •  China
  •  India
  •  Indonesia
  •  Malaysia
  •  Pakistan
  •  Philippines
  •  Sri Lanka
  •  Thailand
  •  Vietnam
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