Global Diabetes and Obesity Drugs Market to 2022 - Insulins and GPCRs Retain Commercial Prominence, While High Unmet Need Remains in Weight Loss Treatment

  • ID: 3822825
  • Report
  • Region: Global
  • 100 pages
  • GBI Research
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Diabetes and obesity therapeutics market will more than double to $163.2 billion by 2022

FEATURED COMPANIES

  • AstraZeneca
  • Eli Lilly
  • Merck & Co
  • Novo Nordisk
  • Sanofi
  • Takeda
  • MORE
Diabetes mellitus refers to a group of metabolic diseases characterized by chronic hyperglycemia (high blood glucose levels) that results from defects in insulin secretion, insulin action, or both of these (ADA, 2014). Under normal circumstances insulin is secreted by the pancreas and into the blood stream upon digestion of food, and subsequent absorption of glucose into the bloodstream. Here it acts to facilitate the absorption of glucose by target cells.

The pipeline for the disease cluster of diabetes and obesity is strong, with a notable rise in revenues expected over the forecast period, despite patent expiries for a number of key marketed drugs. The global market size for this disease cluster is anticipated to grow considerably over the forecast period, from USD70.8 Billion in 2015 to USD163.2 Billion in 2022, at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.7%.

The growth of the disease cluster is driven not only by the rising global incidence of obesity, but also the subsequent effect that this has on T2DM incidence, given the intrinsic link between the two diseases. Furthermore, many products indicated for obesity are also indicated for T2DM, as combating obesity in T2DM patients improves diabetic symptoms, and it is these multiple-indication products that produce the greatest revenues and show the most promise as key future therapeutics.

According to Callum Dew, “Recent approvals and pipeline products that are expected to be key players during the forecast period include Tresiba (insulin degludec), Invokana (canagliflozin) and NN-9535 (semaglutide). The disease cluster is dominated by therapeutics indicated for type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) and T2DM, and the majority of the pipeline, in terms of both quantity and quality of products, is attributable to these indications.”

An increasing pipeline presence for obesity-indicated products and overwhelming global media interest highlight the relevance of this indication and its future potential global revenues. However, the number of pharmacotherapeutic products and revenues for obesity are dwarfed by diabetes-indicated products. Given the status of obesity as a risk factor for T2DM, it is likely that the T2DM market will continue to rise with the rising obesity incidence.

The report “Global Diabetes and Obesity Drugs Market to 2022 - Insulin’s and GPCRs Retain Commercial Prominence, While High Unmet Need Remains in Weight Loss Treatment” provides an introduction to the disease cluster of diabetes and obesity, and some detailed background information regarding the diseases. Information is also included regarding symptoms, etiology and pathophysiology, comorbidities and epidemiology.

In depth, it provides the following analysis:
  • Provides an overview of the marketed products of diabetes and obesity, including product profiles of key marketed products, and revenue projections for each of these drugs.
  • Helps to analyze the diabetes and obesity pipeline, detailing, among other parameters, drug distribution by stage of development, molecule type and molecular target, plus separate analysis of T1DM, T2DM and obesity.
  • Provides forecast projections to 2022 on a global level, with forecasts provided for the US, plus aggregate revenue forecasts of the top five EU markets (the UK, France, Germany, Italy and Spain) and Japan. Additionally, revenue forecasts for the major product categories and key players.
  • Assesses the company landscape for the disease cluster, with an analysis of the key players, the types of company involved, and whether the disease cluster comprises a large proportion of each company’s pipeline portfolio and total revenues.
  • Analyses of trends in co-development and licensing deals relating to diabetes and obesity products. Some of the most prominent deals are discussed in detail.
Companies mentioned in this report: Novo Nordisk, Eli Lilly, Sanofi, Merck & Co, AstraZeneca, Takeda.
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FEATURED COMPANIES

  • AstraZeneca
  • Eli Lilly
  • Merck & Co
  • Novo Nordisk
  • Sanofi
  • Takeda
  • MORE
1 Table of Contents
1 Table of Contents
1.1 List of Tables
1.2 List of Figures
2 Introduction
2.1 Therapy Area Introduction
2.1.1 Diabetes
2.1.2 Obesity
2.2 Symptoms
2.2.1 Diabetes
2.2.2 Obesity
2.3 Etiology and Pathophysiology
2.3.1 Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus
2.3.2 Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus
2.3.3 Obesity
2.3.4 The Association between Obesity and T2DM
2.4 Comorbidities and Complications
2.5 Epidemiology Patterns and Forecasts across the 7MM
2.5.1 Diabetes
2.5.2 Obesity
2.6 Treatment
2.6.1 Diabetic Pharmacotherapeutics
2.6.2 Insulin Therapy
2.6.3 Amylin Analogs
2.6.4 Obesity Pharmacotherapeutics
3 Key Marketed Products
3.1 Overview
3.2 Diabetes - Top Eight Key Marketed Products
3.2.1 Lantus (insulin glargine) - Sanofi
3.2.2 Novolog (insulin aspart) - Novo Nordisk
3.2.3 Januvia (sitagliptin phosphate) - Merck & Co
3.2.4 Levemir (insulin detemir) - Novo Nordisk
3.2.5 Victoza (liraglutide) - Novo Nordisk
3.2.6 Humalog (insulin lispro) - Eli Lilly
3.2.7 Janumet (metformin hydrochloride plus sitagliptin phosphate) - Merck & Co
3.2.8 New Market Entrants
3.3 Obesity Overview
3.3.1 Saxenda (liraglutide)
3.3.2 Belviq (lorcaserin hydrochloride)
3.3.3 Xenical (orlistat)
3.3.4 Contrave (bupropion hydrochloride plus naltrexone)
3.4 Conclusion
4 Pipeline Landscape Assessment
4.1 Overview
4.2 Pipeline Development Landscape
4.3 Molecular Targets in the Pipeline
4.4 Clinical Trials
4.4.1 Failure Rate by Stage of Development, Indication, Molecule Type and Molecular Target
4.4.2 Clinical Trial Duration by Stage of Development, Indication, Molecule Type and Molecular Target
4.4.3 Clinical Trial Size by Stage of Development, Indication, Molecule Type and Molecular Target
4.4.4 Aggregate Clinical Program Size by Stage of Development, Indication, Molecule Type and Molecular Target
4.5 Late-Stage Drugs of the Developmental Pipeline
4.5.1 Saxagliptin plus dapagliflozin (dapagliflozin propanediol plus saxagliptin) - AstraZeneca
4.5.2 Semaglutide (OG-217SC and NN-9535 - Oral and Subcutaneous) - Novo Nordisk
4.5.3 LixiLan (insulin glargine plus lixisenatide) - Sanofi
4.5.4 NN-1218 (insulin aspart) - Novo Nordisk
4.5.5 Ertugliflozin (PF-04971729) - Merck & Co/Pfizer
4.5.6 Sotagliflozin - Lexicon Pharmaceuticals
4.6 Conclusion
5 Multi Scenario Market Forecast to 2022
5.1 Overall Market Size
5.2 Generic Penetration
5.3 Revenue Forecast by Molecular Target
5.3.1 Insulin Receptor
5.3.2 GLP1R
5.3.3 DPP4
5.3.4 SGLT2
5.3.5 AMPK
5.3.6 ABCC8
5.4 Conclusion
6 Company Analysis and Positioning
6.1 Revenue and Market Share Analysis by Company
6.1.1 Novo Nordisk
6.1.2 Eli Lilly
6.1.3 Sanofi
6.1.4 Merck & Co
6.1.5 AstraZeneca
6.1.6 Takeda
6.2 Company Landscape
6.3 Marketed and Pipeline Portfolio Analysis
7 Strategic Consolidations
7.1 Licensing Deals
7.1.1 Deals by Region, Year and Value
7.1.2 Deals by Stage of Development and Value
7.1.3 Deals by Molecule Type, Mechanism of Action and Value
7.2 Co-development Deals
7.2.1 Deals by Region, Year and Value
7.2.2 Deals by Stage of Development and Value
7.2.3 Deals by Molecule Type, Mechanism of Action and Value
8 Appendix
8.1 References
8.2 Abbreviations
8.3 Methodology
8.3.1 Coverage
8.3.2 Secondary Research
8.3.3 Market Size and Revenue Forecasts
8.3.4 Pipeline Analysis
8.3.5 Competitive Landscape
8.4 Contact Us
8.5 Disclaimer

1.1 List of Tables
Table 1: Body Mass Index Classifications
Table 2: Epidemiology of T1DM, T2DM and Obesity, Global, 2016
Table 3: Obesity Therapeutics Market, Seven Major Markets, Summary of the Action, Efficacy and Pathway of the Six Top-Selling FDA-Approved Pharmacotherapeutics, 2015
Table 4: Diabetes and Obesity Therapeutics Market, Global, Number of Pipeline Products, 2015

1.2 List of Figures
Figure 1: Diabetes and Obesity Therapeutics Market, Seven Major Markets, Prevalence (%) and Number of Patients (‘000) with T1DM, 2015-2022
Figure 2: Diabetes and Obesity Therapeutics Market, Seven Major Markets, Prevalence (%) and Number of Patients (‘000) with T2DM, 2015-2022
Figure 3: Diabetes and Obesity Therapeutics Market, Seven Major Markets, Prevalence (%) and Number of Patients (‘000) with Obesity, 2015-2022
Figure 4: Diabetes and Obesity Therapeutics Market, Seven Major Markets, Key Marketed Products and Indications, 2015
Figure 5 : Diabetes Therapeutics Market, Global, Annual Revenue for Lantus ($bn), 2006-2022
Figure 6 : Diabetes Therapeutics Market, Global, Annual Revenue for Novolog ($bn), 2006-2022
Figure 7 : Diabetes Therapeutics Market, Global, Annual Revenue for Januvia ($bn), 2006-2022
Figure 8: Diabetes Therapeutics Market, Global, Annual Revenue for Levemir ($bn), 2006-2022
Figure 9: Diabetes Therapeutics Market, Global, Annual Revenue for Victoza ($bn), 2006-2022
Figure 10: Diabetes Therapeutics Market, Global, Annual Revenue for Humalog ($bn), 2006-2022
Figure 11: Diabetes Therapeutics Market, Global, Annual Revenue for Janumet ($bn), 2006-2022
Figure 12: Diabetes Therapeutics Market, Global, Current and Pipeline indications of Additional Therapeutics for which Annual Revenue is Expected to Exceed $2 billion by 2022
Figure 13: Diabetes Therapeutics Market, Global, Expected Revenues for Additional Therapeutics for which Annual Revenue is Expected to Exceed $2 billion by 2022
Figure 14: Obesity Therapeutics Market, Global, Annual Revenue for Saxenda ($m), 2015-2022
Figure 15: Obesity Therapeutics Market, Global, Annual Revenue for Belviq ($m), 2013-2022
Figure 16: Obesity Therapeutics Market, Global, Annual Revenue for Xenical ($m), 2006-2012
Figure 17: Overall Pharmaceutical Industry Pipeline by Therapy Area, Global, 2015
Figure 18: Diabetes and Obesity Therapeutics Market, Global, Pipeline by Stage of Development, Molecule Type and Program Type, 2016
Figure 19: Diabetes and Obesity Therapeutics Market, Global, Pipeline by Indication and Stage of Development, 2016
Figure 20: Diabetes and Obesity Therapeutics Market, Global, Pipeline by Indication and Molecule Type, 2016
Figure 21: Diabetes and Obesity Therapeutics Market, Global, Pipeline for by Molecular Target, 2016
Figure 22: Diabetes and Obesity Therapeutics Market, Global, Pipeline by Indication and Molecular Target, 2016
Figure 23: Diabetes and Obesity Therapeutics Market, Global, Pipeline by Indication and ‘Multiple’ Subcategory of Molecular Target, 2016
Figure 24: Diabetes and Obesity Therapeutics Market, Global, Clinical Trial Attrition Rates by Stage of Development, 2006-2016
Figure 25: Diabetes and Obesity Therapeutics Market, Global, Clinical Trial Attrition Rates by Indication and Stage of Development, 2006-2015
Figure 26: Diabetes and Obesity Therapeutics Market, Global, Clinical Trial Attrition Rates by Stage of Development and Molecule Type, 2006-2016
Figure 27: Diabetes and Obesity Therapeutics Market, Global, Clinical Trial Attrition Rates by Stage of Development and Molecular Target, 2006-2016
Figure 28: Diabetes and Obesity Therapeutics Market, Global, Clinical Trial Duration (months) by Stage of Development and Indication, 2006-2016
Figure 29: Diabetes and Obesity Therapeutics Market, Global, Clinical Trial Duration (months) by Stage of Development and Molecule Type, 2006-2015
Figure 30: Diabetes and Obesity Therapeutics Market, Global, Clinical Trial Duration (months) by Stage of Development and Molecular Target, 2006-2016
Figure 31: Diabetes and Obesity Therapeutics Market, Global, Clinical Trial Size (participants) by Stage of Development and Indication, 2006-2015
Figure 32: Diabetes and Obesity Therapeutics Market, Global, Clinical Trial Size (participants) by Stage of Development and Molecule Type, 2006-2015
Figure 33: Diabetes and Obesity Therapeutics Market, Global, Clinical Trial Size (participants) by Stage of Development and Molecular Target, 2006-2015
Figure 34: Diabetes and Obesity Therapeutics Market, Global, Clinical Program Size (participants) by Stage of Development and Indication, 2006-2015
Figure 35: Diabetes and Obesity Therapeutics Market, Global, Clinical Program Size (participants) by Stage of Development and Molecule Type, 2006-2015
Figure 36: Diabetes and Obesity Therapeutics Market, Global, Clinical Program Size by Stage of Development and Molecular Target, 2006-2015
Figure 37: Diabetes and Obesity Therapeutics Market, Global, Revenue Forecast for Saxagliptin plus Dapagliflozin ($m), 2015-2022
Figure 38: Diabetes and Obesity Therapeutics Market, Global, Revenue Forecast for NN-9535 ($m), 2015-2022
Figure 39: Diabetes and Obesity Therapeutics Market, Global, Revenue Forecast for LixiLan ($m), 2015-2022
Figure 40: Diabetes and Obesity Therapeutics Market, Global, Revenue Forecast for NN-1218 ($m), 2015-2022
Figure 41: Diabetes and Obesity Therapeutics Market, Global, Revenue Forecast for Ertugliflozin ($m), 2015-2022
Figure 42: Diabetes and Obesity Therapeutics Market, Global, Revenue Forecast for Sotagliflozin ($m), 2015-2022
Figure 43: Diabetes and Obesity Therapeutics Market, Global, Market Size ($bn), 2015-2022
Figure 44: Diabetes and Obesity Therapeutics Market, Global, Annual Revenue Forecast for Key Products ($bn), 2015-2022
Figure 45: Diabetes and Obesity Therapeutics Market, Global, Annual Revenue Forecast for Insulin Mimetics ($bn), 2015-2022
Figure 46: Diabetes and Obesity Therapeutics Market, Global, Annual Revenue Forecast for GLP1R Agonists ($bn), 2015-2022
Figure 47: Diabetes and Obesity Therapeutics Market , Global, Annual Revenue Forecast for DPP4 Inhibitors ($bn), 2015-2022
Figure 48: Diabetes and Obesity Therapeutics Market , Global, Annual Revenue Forecast for SGLT2 Inhibitors ($bn), 2015-2022
Figure 49: Diabetes and Obesity Therapeutics Market, Global, Annual Revenue Forecast for AMPK Activators ($bn), 2015-2022
Figure 50: Diabetes and Obesity Therapeutics Market, Global, Annual Revenue Forecast for ABCC8 Inhibitors ($m), 2015-2022
Figure 51: Diabetes and Obesity Therapeutics Market, Global, Cluster by Growth and Market Share, 2015-2022
Figure 52: Diabetes and Obesity Therapeutics Market, Global, Forecast Revenues by Company ($m), 2015-2022
Figure 53: Diabetes and Obesity Therapeutics Market, Global, Forecast Market Share by Company (%), 2015-2022
Figure 54: Diabetes and Obesity Therapeutics Market, Global, Companies by Compound Annual Growth Rate (%), 2015-2022
Figure 55: Diabetes and Obesity Therapeutics Market , Global, Revenues by Product Type ($bn), 2015-2022
Figure 56: Diabetes and Obesity Therapeutics Market, Global, Annual Revenue Forecast for Novo Nordisk ($bn), 2015-2022
Figure 57: Diabetes and Obesity Therapeutics Market, Global, Annual Revenue Forecast for Eli Lilly ($bn), 2015-2022
Figure 58: Diabetes and Obesity Therapeutics Market, Global, Annual Revenue Forecast for Sanofi ($bn), 2015-2022
Figure 59: Diabetes and Obesity Therapeutics Market, Global, Annual Revenue Forecast for Merck & Co ($bn), 2015-2022
Figure 60: Diabetes and Obesity Therapeutics Market, Global, Annual Revenue Forecast for AstraZeneca ($bn), 2015-2022
Figure 61: Diabetes and Obesity Therapeutics Market, Global, Annual Revenue Forecast for Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited ($bn), 2015-2022
Figure 62: Diabetes and Obesity Therapeutics Market , Global, High-activity and Late-stage Companies by Type, 2015
Figure 63: Diabetes and Obesity Therapeutics Market, Global, Companies by Specialization and Type, 2015
Figure 64: Diabetes and Obesity Therapeutics Market, Global, Proportion of Total Company Revenue Attributable to Disease Cluster, 2015-2022
Figure 65: Diabetes and Obesity Therapeutics Market , Global, Licensing Deals by Region, Value And Year, 2006-2015
Figure 66: Diabetes and Obesity Therapeutics Market, Global, Number of Licensing Deals by Value and Stage of Development, 2006-2015
Figure 67: Diabetes and Obesity Therapeutics Market , Global, Number of Licensing Deals by Molecule Type and Molecular Target, 2006-2015
Figure 68: Diabetes and Obesity Therapeutics Market , Global, Co-development Deals by Region, Value and Year, 2006-2015
Figure 69: Diabetes and Obesity Therapeutics Market, Global, Co-development Deals by Value and Stage of Development, 2006-2015
Figure 70: Diabetes and Obesity Therapeutics Market , Global, Number of Co-development Deals by Molecule Type and Molecular Target, 2006-2015 93
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FEATURED COMPANIES

  • AstraZeneca
  • Eli Lilly
  • Merck & Co
  • Novo Nordisk
  • Sanofi
  • Takeda
  • MORE
Diabetes and obesity therapeutics market will more than double to $163.2 billion by 2022.

The global market for diabetes mellitus and obesity is set to rise from $70.8 billion in 2015 to $163.2 billion by 2022, at a strong compound annual growth rate of 12.7%, according to the publisher.

The company’s latest report states that although this growth is largely attributable to a large increase in the incidence of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and obesity, a number of pipeline T2DM therapeutics are anticipated to be significant contributors to market growth over the forecast period, with some even expected to reach blockbuster status.

One of our analysts explains: “Recent approvals and pipeline products that are expected to be key players during the forecast period include Tresiba (insulin degludec), Invokana (canagliflozin) and NN-9535 (semaglutide). The disease cluster is dominated by therapeutics indicated for type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) and T2DM, and the majority of the pipeline, in terms of both quantity and quality of products, is attributable to these indications.

“While products indicated for obesity do not currently have a large market presence, there are a large number of these products in the pipeline, with the majority in early stages of development. Of course, the growth of the disease cluster is driven not only by the rising global incidence of obesity, but also the subsequent effect that this has on T2DM incidence, given the intrinsic link between the two diseases.”

Invokana, which is marketed by Johnson & Johnson, is one of the key players in the disease cluster. It is expected to reach a huge $3.23 billion by 2022, and is set to be approved across T1DM, T2DM and obesity. Although current top-selling drugs such as Januvia, Novolog and Invokana are expected to remain dominant within the disease cluster, four of the anticipated top 10 best-selling drugs of 2022 will be new to market.
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- AstraZeneca
- Eli Lilly
- Merck & Co
- Novo Nordisk
- Sanofi
- Takeda
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