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The Future of Autonomous Cars

  • ID: 3909299
  • Report
  • 249 pages
  • Berg Insight AB
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71 million Self-Driving Cars on the Roads by 2030


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How will the market for autonomous cars evolve in the next 15 years? The report covers the latest trends and developments covering detailed descriptions about the major self-driving car projects worldwide. The author forecasts that the total number of new registrations of autonomous cars will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 62 percent from 0.2 million units in 2020 to reach 24 million units in 2030. Get up to date with the latest information about vendors, products and markets.

The Future of Autonomous Cars is a strategy report analysing the latest developments on the selfdriving car market worldwide.

This strategic research report provides you with 250 pages of unique business intelligence including 5-year industry forecasts and expert commentary on which to base your business decisions.

Highlights from this report:
-  Insights from numerous executive interviews with market leading companies.
-  New data on car populations and new car registrations worldwide.
-  Comprehensive overview of the autonomous car value chain and key applications.
-  In-depth analysis of market trends and key developments.
-  Updated profiles of 14 major car OEMs and their autonomous car activities.
-  Detailed view on the involvement of IT and technology companies in this industry.
-  Market forecasts by region lasting until 2030.

This report answers the following questions:
- What is the current status of the autonomous car industry?
- Which are the main actors targeting the autonomous car market?
- How will regulatory developments af fect the autonomous car market?
- Which are the main drivers and barriers on this market?
- How will autonomous cars impact business models and which are the key benefits?
- How are IT and tech companies positioning themselves in the autonomous car value chain?
- What semi-autonomous cars are available on a commercial basis today?
- What are the automotive OEMs future plans for driverless cars?
- How will the market evolve in Europe, North America, Latin America, Asia-Pacific and MEA?

Who Should buy this Report?

The Future of Autonomous cars is the foremost source of information about the emerging self-driving car market. Whether you are a car manufacturer, first tier supplier, telematics service provider, telecom operator, content provider, investor, consultant, or government agency, you will gain valuable insights from our in-depth research.

About the Authors
Ludvig Barrehag is an M2M/IoT Analyst with a Master’s degree in Management and Economics of Innovation from Chalmers University of Technology. His areas of expertise include autonomous cars and related markets and technologies.

Johan Fagerberg is co-founder and an experienced analyst with a Masters degree in Electrical Engineering from Chalmers University of Technology. His areas of expertise include location-based services and wireless M2M/IoT.
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Executive summary 

1 Introduction to autonomous cars 
1.1 Definitions and classifications 
1.2 Brief history of autonomous cars 
1.3 Current state of self-driving cars and key stakeholders 
1.3.1 Automotive manufacturers 
1.3.2 Tier-1 automotive suppliers 
1.3.3 Technology companies 
1.3.4 Connectivity service providers 
1.4 Key market drivers 
1.5 Key market barriers 
1.6 The global passenger car market 
1.6.1 Car segments 
1.6.2 Passenger cars in use by region 
1.6.3 New passenger car registration trends 
1.7 Market trends 
1.7.1 Hybrid electric, plug-in hybrid electric and all-electric vehicles 
1.7.2 Car sharing and personal transportation as a service 
1.8 User segments for autonomous driving 
1.8.1 Luxury segment 
1.8.2 Commuters 
1.8.3 Young drivers 
1.8.4 Paratransit 
1.8.5 Delivery fleets 
1.8.6 Transportation on demand 

2 Advanced driver assistance systems 
2.1 Introduction to the most common ADAS
2.1.1 Adaptive cruise control 
2.1.2 Cooperative adaptive cruise control 
2.1.3 Lane departure warning 
2.1.4 Lane keeping assist 
2.1.5 Autonomous emergency braking 
2.1.6 Collision avoidance system 
2.1.7 Blind spot monitor 
2.1.8 Rear cross traffic alert 
2.1.9 Forward cross traffic alert 
2.1.10 Turning assist 
2.1.11 Road sign detection 
2.1.12 Other ADAS 
2.2 Specific semi-autonomous use cases 
2.2.1 Parking assist 
2.2.2 Traffic jam assist and highway autopilot 
2.2.3 Platooning 

3 Autonomous car technologies 
3.1 Sensors 
3.1.1 Cameras 
3.1.2 Lidar 
3.1.3 Radar 
3.1.4 Ultrasonic and infrared sensors 
3.1.5 Inertial navigation system 
3.2 Telematics 
3.2.1 Mobile connectivity 
3.2.2 Location tracking 
3.2.3 Digital maps 
3.2.4 V2V and V2I communication 
3.3 Computing platform 
3.3.1 Sensor fusion 
3.3.2 Interpretation and decision making 
3.3.3 Computer vision 
3.3.4 Artificial intelligence 
3.3.5 Machine learning 
3.3.6 Deep learning 
3.4 Execution and related technologies 
3.4.1 Electronic control unit 
3.4.2 Human machine interface 
3.4.3 Driver monitoring systems 
3.5 Summary of the current state of autonomous car technologies 

4 Autonomous car initiatives 
4.1 Overview of current projects 
4.2 Jaguar Land Rover Automotive 
4.2.1 Overview of Jaguar Land Rover passenger car models 
4.2.2 ADAS offerings 
4.2.3 Approach to autonomous cars 
4.2.4 Autonomous technology activities 
4.2.5 Competitive positioning in the autonomous car market 
4.3 Volvo Car Group 
4.3.1 Overview of Volvo passenger car models 
4.3.2 ADAS offerings 
4.3.3 Approach to autonomous cars 
4.3.4 Autonomous technology activities 
4.3.5 Competitive positioning in the autonomous car market 
4.4 Tesla Motors 
4.4.1 Overview of Tesla passenger car models 
4.4.2 ADAS offerings 
4.4.3 Approach to autonomous cars 
4.4.4 Autonomous technology activities 
4.4.5 Competitive positioning in the autonomous car market 
4.5 Mercedes-Benz 
4.5.1 Overview of Mercedes-Benz passenger car models 
4.5.2 ADAS offerings 
4.5.3 The upcoming E-class models 
4.5.4 Approach to autonomous cars 
4.5.5 Autonomous technology activities 
4.5.6 Competitive positioning in the autonomous car market 
4.6 Audi 
4.6.1 Overview of Audi passenger car models 
4.6.2 ADAS offerings 
4.6.3 Approach to autonomous cars 
4.6.4 Autonomous technology activities 
4.6.5 Competitive positioning in the autonomous car market 
4.7 BMW 
4.7.1 Overview of BMW passenger car models 
4.7.2 ADAS offerings 
4.7.3 Approach to autonomous cars 
4.7.4 Autonomous technology activities 
4.7.5 Competitive positioning in the autonomous car market 
4.8 General Motors 
4.8.1 Overview of the main GM passenger car brands
4.8.2 ADAS offerings 
4.8.3 Approach to autonomous cars 
4.8.4 Autonomous technology activities 
4.8.5 Strategic investments 
4.8.6 Competitive positioning in the autonomous car market 
4.9 Ford Motor Company 
4.9.1 Overview of Ford passenger car models 
4.9.2 ADAS offerings 
4.9.3 Approach to autonomous cars 
4.9.4 Autonomous technology activities 
4.9.5 Competitive positioning in the autonomous car market 
4.10 Toyota Motor Corporation 
4.10.1 Overview of Toyota and Lexus passenger car models 
4.10.2 ADAS offerings 
4.10.3 Approach to autonomous cars 
4.10.4 Autonomous technology activities 
4.10.5 Competitive positioning in the autonomous car market 
4.11 Honda Motor Company 
4.11.1 Overview of Honda and Acura passenger car models 
4.11.2 ADAS offerings 
4.11.3 Approach to autonomous cars 
4.11.4 Autonomous technology activities 
4.11.5 Competitive positioning in the autonomous car market 
4.12 Hyundai Motor Group 
4.12.1 Overview of Hyundai and Kia passenger car models 
4.12.2 ADAS offerings 
4.12.3 Approach to autonomous cars 
4.12.4 Autonomous technology activities 
4.12.5 Competitive positioning in the autonomous car market 
4.13 Renault-Nissan Alliance 
4.13.1 Overview of Nissan Motor Company 
4.13.2 Overview of Nissan and Infiniti passenger car models 
4.13.3 Overview of Renault Group 
4.13.4 Overview of Renault and Dacia passenger car models 
4.13.5 Nissan and ADAS developments 
4.13.6 Renault and ADAS developments 
4.13.7 Approach to autonomous cars 
4.13.8 Nissan and autonomous technology activities 
4.13.9 Renault and autonomous technology activities 
4.13.10 Competitive positioning in the autonomous car market 
4.14 Fiat Chrysler Automobiles 
4.14.1 Overview of Fiat Chrysler Automobiles passenger car models 
4.14.2 ADAS offerings 
4.14.3 FCA and autonomous driving 
4.15 Groupe PSA 
4.15.1 Overview of Peugeot and Citroën passenger car models 
4.15.2 ADAS offerings 
4.15.3 Approach to autonomous cars 
4.15.4 Autonomous technology activities 
4.15.5 Competitive positioning in the autonomous car market 
4.16 Google 
4.16.1 Approach to autonomous cars 
4.16.2 Autonomous technology activities 
4.16.3 Google Chauffer software 
4.16.4 Competitive positioning in the autonomous car market 
4.17 Apple 
4.17.1 Apple’s vehicle project 
4.18 Uber Technologies 
4.18.1 Approach to autonomous cars 
4.18.2 Uber and autonomous cars 
4.18.3 Competitive positioning in the autonomous car market 
4.19 Baidu 
4.19.1 Approach to autonomous cars 
4.19.2 Autonomous technology activities 
4.19.3 Competitive positioning in the autonomous car market 
4.20 Additional car OEM initiatives 
4.21 Car manufacturers not yet betting on autonomous car technology 
4.22 Supplier and technology company initiatives 
4.22.1 Autoliv 
4.22.2 Bosch 
4.22.3 Continental 
4.22.4 Delphi Automotive 
4.22.5 ZF TRW 
4.22.6 Mobileye 
4.22.7 Nvidia 
4.22.8 Velodyne LiDAR
4.22.9 Additional supplier initiatives 

5 Regional developments 
5.1 USA 
5.2 European Union 
5.3 Germany 
5.4 United Kingdom 
5.5 Sweden 
5.6 China
5.7 Japan 
5.8 South Korea 
5.9 Singapore 

6 Benefits of autonomous cars 
6.1 Safety 
6.2 Convenience 
6.3 Traffic efficiency 
6.4 Mobility 
6.4.1 Benefits for people unable to drive 
6.4.2 Public driverless fleets of cars 
6.5 Sustainability 
6.5.1 Electric autonomous vehicles 
6.5.2 Increased efficiency
6.6 Impact on city infrastructure 

7 Barriers and challenges 
7.1 Technology reliability 
7.2 Mixed vehicle environment 
7.3 HMI challenges to accomplish Level 3 
7.4 Standards and collaborations 
7.5 Regulations and liabilities 
7.5.1 International conventions on road traffic 
7.5.2 Liability
7.6 Public acceptance 
7.7 Car longevity 

8 Market forecasts and trends 
8.1 Car sales forecast 
8.2 Autonomous car sales forecast 
8.2.1 SAE Level 1 
8.2.2 SAE Level 2 
8.2.3 SAE Level 3 
8.2.4 SAE Level 4 
8.2.5 SAE Level 5 
8.3 Regional market developments 
8.3.1 SAE Level 2, Level 3 and non-driverless Level 4 
8.3.2 SAE Driverless Level 4 
8.4 Market drivers and barriers 
8.4.1 Competitive environment 
8.4.2 Technology environment 
8.4.3 Regulatory environment 
8.4.4 Macroeconomic environment 
8.5 Value chain analysis 
8.5.1 Automotive industry players 
8.5.2 IT industry players 
8.5.3 Automotive suppliers 
8.5.4 Transport service players 
8.6 Future industry trends 
8.6.1 Forecasting the autonomous car market beyond 2030 
8.6.2 The overall impact of autonomous cars on society 
8.6.3 Data ownership and privacy protection strategies 
8.6.4 How will the rollout of self-driving cars affect the insurance industry? 
8.6.5 Self-driving cars and the Internet of Things 
8.6.6 New mobility services and business models for fully autonomous cars 



List of Figures
Figure 1.1: SAE classification of levels of autonomy 
Figure 1.2: Performance and adoption barriers 
Figure 1.3: Car parc by region (World 2008–2014) 
Figure 1.4: Passenger car parc density by region (World 2015) 
Figure 1.5: New car registration data (World 2008–2015) 
Figure 1.6: Top 10 countries by new passenger car and light truck registration (2015) 
Figure 1.7: Top selling highway capable all-electric cars (World 2015) 
Figure 1.8: Registered highway capable BEVs and PHEVs (World 2015) 
Figure 1.9: Car sharing and mobility service companies (World Q4-2015) 
Figure 3.1: Sense-Plan-Act process 
Figure 3.2: Typical lidar 3D depiction integrated with a digital map 
Figure 3.3: Relationship between fields in computer science 
Figure 3.4: Conceptual structure of a simple neural network 
Figure 3.5: Graphical representation of underfitting and overfitting 
Figure 4.1: Top 20 passenger car manufacturers by revenues (World 2015) 
Figure 4.2: Top 6 luxury car manufacturers by new registrations (World 2015) 
Figure 4.3: Land Rover remote control app 
Figure 4.4: Drive Me project routes for autonomous mode 
Figure 4.5: Tesla Autopilot display
Figure 4.6: F 015 Luxury in Motion interior design 
Figure 4.7: Audi RS 7 autonomous race car
Figure 4.8: BMW VISION NEXT 100 concept car featuring heads-up display 
Figure 4.9: Chevrolet Tahoe modified vehicle at the DARPA Urban Challenge 
Figure 4.10: Ford Fusion Hybrid autonomous test car 
Figure 4.11: Honda Wander Stand concept vehicle 
Figure 4.12: The empty car convoy 
Figure 4.13: Nissan IDS Concept interior when in self-driving mode 
Figure 4.14: 2017 Chrysler Pacifica Hybrid 
Figure 4.15: Google autonomous prototype 
Figure 4.16: Volvo Cars XC90 equipped for Uber’s autonomous ride-hailing program 
Figure 4.17: Baidu’s autonomous BMW Gran Turismo test vehicle 
Figure 4.18: Nvidia Drive PX2 
Figure 4.19: Velodyne HDL-64E LiDAR 
Figure 7.1: Traffic in Ho Chi Minh City 
Figure 8.1: Global passenger car and light truck sales by region (2015–2030) 
Figure 8.2: Luxury car sales (World 2016–2030) 
Figure 8.3: Autonomous car sales and active installed base by level (World 2015–2030) 
Figure 8.4: Autonomous car SAE level 2 sales by region (2015–2030) 
Figure 8.5: Autonomous car SAE level 3 sales by region (2015–2030) 
Figure 8.6: Autonomous car SAE level 4 sales by region (2015–2030) 
Figure 8.7: Technology adoption lifecycle model 
Figure 8.8: Long term outlook on passenger car and autonomous car sales 
Figure 8.9: Evolutionary pathway of Internet of Things use cases 
Figure 8.10: Potential paths to shared ownership of autonomous cars
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Autonomous cars will reach sales of 24 million units in 2030

According to a new research report, the first autonomous cars will debut in 2020. The total number of new registrations of autonomous cars is forecasted to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 62 percent from 0.2 million units in 2020 to reach 24 million units in 2030. The active installed base of autonomous cars is forecasted to have reached about 71 million at the end of 2030. These figures include SAE Level 3 and 4 cars. It is important to note that autonomous cars are not a single innovation; rather this technology can be seen as a continuum of various levels of autonomy where the amount of driver involvement is the main differentiating factor.

Furthermore, several sophisticated technologies must come together to enable a car to safely drive by itself and autonomous cars will therefore roll out in incremental phases. In particular, software for interpreting sensor information and managing the driving logic is key to the development of self-driving cars. Several automobile manufacturers have initiated projects to develop self-driving features in their cars. The incumbent automakers are joined by multiple new actors such as IT companies and other technology-oriented firms. Most incumbent automotive companies pursue an incremental approach with step-by-step roll-out of autonomous systems while startups and IT companies take a more revolutionary direction and aim at developing fully autonomous cars immediately from scratch. “These pathways do not contradict each other as different autonomous systems are suitable in different use cases. We will continue to see development from both sides for still some years before the two approaches converge”, says Ludvig Barrehag, M2M/IoT analyst at Berg Insight.

The advent of autonomous cars is expected to have a tremendous impact on our society in several ways. Cars are among the most costly as well as inefficiently used assets of today. When cars can operate around the clock on a service based business model it results in a tremendous increase of their utilization rate. Furthermore, autonomous cars will improve life quality for people unable to drive, reduce the number of fatalities and accidents in road traffic and increase overall traffic efficiency. The economic benefits are vast – the challenge is to succeed in making self-driving cars sufficiently reliable at a reasonable cost to enable commercialization.
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- Apple
- Audi
- Autoliv
- Baidu
- Bosch
- Continental
- Delphi Automotive
- Fiat Chrysler Automobiles
- Ford Motor Company
- General Motors
- Google
- Groupe PSA
- Honda Motor Company
- Hyundai Motor Group
- Jaguar Land Rover Automotive
- Mercedes-Benz
- Mobileye
- Nvidia
- Renault-Nissan Alliance
- Tesla Motors
- Toyota Motor Corporation
- Uber Technologies
- Velodyne LiDAR
- Volvo Car Group
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The Internet of Things is very diverse. There are hundreds of different use cases, each with different dynamics. The starting point is to segment the market. The start with a  number of sectors: Automotive, Cities, Health, Industry, Home, Industrial, Energy, Retail and Consumer Electronics. Each of those sectors breaks down into a number of applications. In total across all sectors, the analyst examines around 150 separate applications. It is at this application level that they generate their IoT forecast. The analyst builds reliable data bottom-up. They take into consideration the current adoption rate, regulations, demographics, vertical-specific statistics, value chain structure, etc.

The rigorous data collection methods are based on first-hand and secondary sources. The analyst conducts many hundreds of executive interviews on a yearly basis with companies from all parts of the IoT value chain.  They talk to on a regular basis all major mobile operator groups and regulators as well as the chipset, module, and terminal vendors. They also interview many companies in each of the vertical markets.