China Tourism Industry Research Report, 2016-2019

  • ID: 3937841
  • Report
  • Region: China
  • 295 Pages
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Disposable income growth, demographic change and accelerated urbanization are driving structural growth in China’s tourism industry. Along with favorable government policies, optimized infrastructure and looser visa policies overseas, these factors should underpin 11%/31% 2015-20 CAGRs in domestic/outbound tourists and a 25% CAGR in domestic tourist spending (CNTA forecasts).

With various business models and operating focus, our covered stocks offer different exposures to the underlying drivers of China’s tourism boom: (1) Individual Travel Propensity via leading travel agencies (CITS/CYTS/Caissa/Utour) and destination attractions (Songcheng/CYTS/ CTSHK); (2) Outbound Travel via fully-integrated outbound service platforms (Caissa/Utour); (3) Theme Park Boom  via  local players with scalable business models and local demand knowledge  (Songcheng); (4) Travel Retail via duty free operators with nationwide licenses (CITS). 

With the emergence of online travel agencies (OTA) and marketplaces and mounting price competition for market-share gains, the supply chain for China’s travel industry is being reshaped. Market leaders are consolidating tourism resources both vertically (via acquisition of outbound destination resources and/or specialization in resorts/theme parks/travel retail) and horizontally (via O2O integration and/or network expansion to increase scale). This results in various financial profiles accompanying robust earnings growth, incl. high capital returns with superior margins (Songcheng), margin ramp-up with business transformation (CYTS), asset-heavy yet decent margins (CITS), and strong top-line and fast asset turnover (HNA-Caissa and Utour).

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1. Structural growth in China’s tourism industry
1.1 Boom in Chinese travel
1.2 Drivers of the structural growth
1.3 Favorable government policies
1.4 Looser visa requirements

2. Segment markets of China’s tourism industry
2.1 Individual travel for depth and personalization
2.2 Outbound travel
2.3 Theme park boom
2.4 Duty free shopping

3. Competitive Landscape

4. Developing new businesses
4.1 Sports Tourism - fastest-growing segment in travel industry
4.2 Medical Tourism - a trend for emerging middle class
4.3 Cruises - a new form of vacation tourism

5. Major industry challenges and risks

CNTA Forecasts for Main Indicators of China Tourism Industry, 2015/2020E
Chinese Tourist Spending, 2009-2015
Chinese Tourist Numbers, 1994-2015
Number of domestic and outbound trips per capita in China, 1994-2015
Chinese Tourist Per Capita Spending, 2009-2015
China’s Tourism Revenue (domestic and inbound), 1999-2015
Chinese Domestic Tourism Spending, 1994-2015
Number of Domestic Trips by Chinese Tourists, 1994-2015
Domestic Tourism Spending Per Chinese Tourist, 1994-2015
Chinese Outbound Tourist Spending, 2009-2015
Number of Outbound Trips by Chinese tourists, 1994-2015
Outbound Tourism Spending Per Chinese Tourist, 2009-2015
Outbound Travel Frequency - China vs. Developed Countries
Annual disposable income of urban households in China, 1995-2015
FMCG spending as % of disposable income for urban households in China, 2011-2015
Correlation between GDP per capita and tourism expenditure per capita (incl. domestic + outbound) in 2015
Correlation between disposable income per capita and tourism expenditure per capita (incl. domestic + outbound) in 2015
Tourism expenditure % of disposable income, 2011-2015
Middle class will account for 76% of urban households in China by 2022 - Upper middle class will be the mainstream
Tourism expenditure per capita (incl. domestic + outbound) in China is very low compared to developed countries
Travel Frequency is Low in China
Tourism expenditure (incl. domestic + outbound) as % of disposable income vs. developed countries
Total contribution of travel and tourism to GDP by Different Countries, 2015
Age Distribution of Chinese Outbound Tourists
Aging population in China, 2005-2020E
Number of domestic air passengers in China in 2015
Age structure of outbound tourists by destination of different countries in 2015
Chinese Outbound Tourists- YoY growth rates by destination in 2015
Rising elderly tourists % of total tourists on aging population in Japan, 1999-2010
Incentives to travel among elderly tourists in China
Urbanization rate in China
Emerging middle class from inland and low tier cities in China, 2002-2022E
Faster growth of domestic air passenger numbers from tier 2 & 3 cities in China in 2015
Related policies in China
Summary of holiday policies in China
Number of days of paid leave in China is below OECD average
Travel time selection of Chinese outbound tourists
Chinese tourist number growth at non-peak period in 2015
Tourism investment in China, 2013-2020E
New capacity of international flights by airlines in China in 1H16
Number of airports in China, 1995-2020E
Accelerated expansion of international flights, 1990-2015
Increasing investment in public transport infrastructure in China, 2014-2015
A total of 57 countries and regions offer “visa exemptions” or “visas on arrival” to Chinese passport holders
Loosening visa policies for Chinese visitors worldwide
Travel budgeting of different countries for 2016 based on TripAdvisor survey
Top 10 influences when Chinese consumers make travel plans
% of individual tourists in domestic and outbound travel in China, 2000-2015
China’s individual tourism market size in 2015
From piece-by-piece purchase to one-stop solution platform
IP + Travel
Development phases of outbound tourism in China
Passport penetration - China vs. US
International passenger numbers by Chinese airlines YoY growth rate in 2015
Outbound tourist source mix in China - rising mix from lower tier cities
Chinese outbound destination mix through travel agency, 2015
Top 10 destinations (ex. HK/Macau/Taiwan) for Chinese outbound tourists, 2015
Top 10 fastest-growing destinations (excl. HK/Macau/Taiwan) by Chinese outbound tourists, 2015
Outbound destination under different income levels for Chinese
Top 10 destinations (excl HK/Macau/Taiwan) by Chinese outbound tourists, 1H2016
Popular flight route bookings by Chinese air passengers YoY growth rate in 1H16
New-added Chinese outbound air passengers’ destination distribution in 2015
Chinese outbound air passengers’ destination distribution by different age groups in 2015
Booking channels by Chinese outbound tourists in 2015
Travel preferences by Chinese outbound tourists for next trip in 2015
China online vacation tour market structure, 2013-2015
China online outbound travel: group tour vs. individual tour, 2010-2015
New theme parks in the pipeline by 2020 in China
Theme park attendance in China by 2020
International theme park IP expansion into China theme park market
Wanda Cultural Tourism City - theme parks + hotel + RDE + residential
Non-ticket income percentage of group revenue
% of travel spending on shopping by Chinese outbound tourists
Travel expenditure mix by Chinese domestic individual tourists in 2015
Travel expenditure mix by Chinese outbound individual tourists in 2015
Chinese share of global duty free spending in 2015
Chinese duty free spending mix in 2015
Market structure of China’s duty free industry, 2015
Expectations of Chinese globe shoppers (based on survey by Global Blue) - Tax free shopping is the most wanted service
Favorable duty free policies
Market share of Top 3 China travel agencies, 1980-2015
Market share in developed countries
China travel agency industry net profit margin, 2004-2015
Market shares in China travel agency industry, 2015
Online Travel Industry Chain
Acquisition of upstream resources and channels - Set the grounds to enhance pricing power and profitability in the long term
Acquisition of downstream platform - Enhancing online penetration
China travel agency industry sales growth rate, 2004-2015
China travel agency industry gross profit growth rate, 2005-2015
China travel agency industry net profit growth rate, 2005-2015
China travel agency industry gross profit margin, 2004-2015
China’s online travel GMV and YoY growth, 2012-2019E
Global online travel penetration by region in 2015
Market position of major online travel operators in China
Comparison between OTAs and marketplaces
Gross margin of China online travel operators, 2011-2015
Gross margin of US online travel operators, 2011-2015
Operating margin of China online travel operators, 2011-2015
Operating margin of US online travel operators, 2011-2015
Product development costs + sales and marketing costs as % of sales, 2011-2015
Operating cash flow over net profit ratio normally exceed 1x, 2011-2015
China online travel market structure, 2013-2016E
China online travel GMV growth by segment, 2013-2019E
Sports tourism market size and growth in 2015
Market share of sports tourism in total tourism market in 2015
Annual growth in China’s sports tourism segment vs. on global basis, 2015-2020E
Favorable policies regarding sports tourism in China
Two types of sport events
Snapshot of China’s sports participation tourism
“Sports tourism” strategies of China’s leading tourism companies
Caissa’s Olympics-related tourism products
CYTS’s World Cup-related tourism product
Global and China’s medical tourism market
Different specialty treatments at popular destinations for medical tourism
Product proportion of online Chinese overseas medical tourism in 2016
Three most popular destinations for Chinese medical tourists
Medical tourism products of travel companies in China
Caissa’s medical tourism product
Utour’s medical tourism product
The future trend for overseas medical travel 
Cooperation between travel agencies and medical enterprises - Service plus Professional 
Industry value chain of overseas medical travel in China
Size of global cruise tourism market
Sales and number of cruise tourists in China 
Outgrowing Chinese cruise tourists
Cruise penetration in China is very low vs. developed countries in 2015
Cruise passenger number YoY growth rate in 2015
Market segments of online cruise market in China
Market players in OTA platforms in China
Plans for cruise ports in China in 2015
Expansion plans and strategies of cruise companies in China
Japan and Korean are most favored destinations
Royal Caribbean is most welcomed cruise company
Development history of China’s outbound cruise market 
Industry value chain of online outbound cruise market in China
Major players in online outbound cruise market in China 
Chinese tourist number YoY growth in 2016
Chinese outbound tourists YoY growth in 1H16

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