US Polyethylene, Ethylene & Ethane Export Report 2016-2020

  • ID: 3993750
  • Report
  • Region: United States
  • 98 Pages
  • FC Business Intelligence Ltd.
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Ethane Export Margins by Terminal and Destination Through to 2020


  • Axiall/Lotte
  • Chevron Phillips
  • ExxonMobil
  • Oxichem/Mexichem
  • Sasol
  • Shin-Etsu
  • MORE
  • Integrated ten year commodity pricing forecasts for polyethylene, ethylene and ethane.
  • U.S. polyethylene, ethylene & ethane export volumes, logistics and infrastructure.
  • International market analysis:supply and demand, trade flows and infrastructure projects.
  • unique insight into the competitiveness of u.s. polyethylene exports:total export costs, terminal cost comparisons, feedstock trade-offs and U.S. export net backs.
  • Comprehensive and integrated data sets:Including 44 tables, 56 figures, 100 pages of analysis & 120 tabs of excel data.
  • Ethane Export Marginsby Terminal And Destination Through To 2020.

Key questions answered:

  • What are the primary export markets for US ethane, ethylene and polyethylene?
  • What quantities are expected to be exported?
  • What are the logistics, infrastructure and transportation costs of export to each market?
  • What vessel sizes and types are the most cost effective for international exports?
  • What will US ethane cracker capacity be between 2016 and 2020?
  • What impact will the low oil price environment have on feedstock production, ethane projects and product exports?
Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
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  • Axiall/Lotte
  • Chevron Phillips
  • ExxonMobil
  • Oxichem/Mexichem
  • Sasol
  • Shin-Etsu
  • MORE

1 Introduction

  • Industry and Market Overview
  • Feedstocks
  • Export Logistics

2 U.S. Market Fundamentals

  • Ethane
  • Supply
  • Supply Forecast
  • Demand
  • Ethane Demand
  • Price Forecast - Ethane, Ethylene, Polyethylene
  • Reference Case Results
  • Low Oil Price Case
  • High Oil Price Case
  • Graphs
  • Export Logistics and Infrastructure
  • Ethylene
  • Supply
  • Demand 
  • U.S. Ethylene Export Volumes and Infrastructure
  • Polyethylene 
  • Supply
  • Demand
  • Export Balance and Forecast
  • Export Logistics and Infrastructure

3 International Market Fundamentals

  • Ethane
  • Supply
  • Demand
  • Petrochemical Demand
  • International Ethane Demand for Power Production.
  • Pricing
  • International Trade
  • Import Logistics and Infrastructure
  • Major Ports and Terminals
  • Transporting Ethane on Ships
  • Ethane Carrier Fleet
  • Ship Newbuilding Economic
  • Ship Investment Analysis.
  • Freight Rate Estimation
  • Estimated Ethane Carrier Freight Rates
  • Ethylene 
  • Supply 
  • Import Demand
  • Pricing 
  • Ethylene prices in Europe Forecast
  • Results
  • Import Balance and Forecast
  • Import Logistics and Infrastructure
  • Ethylene Carrier Fleet
  • Ethylene Freight Rates
  • Polyethylene 
  • International Trade
  • Export Costs  

4 Competitiveness of U.S. Exports 

  • Total Export Costs 
  • U.S. Terminal and Throughput Cost Estimation for Ethane and Ethylene
  • Throughput Costs for Other Products at U.S. Ports
  • Throughput Cost Estimation for U.S. and International Ports
  • Ethylene Terminal Cost Comparisons
  • Feedstock Trade-Offs
  • U.S. Export Economic Analysis
  • 5 Conclusions
  • References
  • Acronyms

Table 1 Product Yield by Feedstock
Table 2 Ethane Export Contracts Announced To Date
Table 3 Forecast Ethane Production 2015-2025
Table 4 International Ethane Cracker Investments in the U.S
Table 5 New U.S. Ethane Crackers
Table 6 Announced U.S. Ethane Cracker Expansions
Table 7 Reference Case Monthly Ethane, Ethylene, LDPE and HDPE Pricing Forecast
Table 8 Reference Case Yearly Ethane, Ethylene, LDPE and HDPE Pricing Forecast
Table 9 Low Oil Price Case Ethane, Ethylene, LDPE and HDPE Monthly Pricing Forecast
Table 10 Low Oil Price Ethane, Ethylene, LDPE and HDPE Yearly Forecast
Table 11 High Oil Price Case Monthly Ethane, Ethylene HDPE and LDPE Pricing Forecast
Table 12 High Oil Price Case Ethane, Ethylene HDPE and LDPE Yearly Pricing Forecast
Table 13 U.S. Ethane Export Terminals
Table 14 U.S. Ethane Sale Contracts
Table 15 Feedstock Demand and Supply Forecast 2012 to 2025
Table 16 U.S. Polyethylene Projects. .   .   .   .   .   .
Table 17 U.S. Ethylene Export in 2015 through Targa Terminal, Houston, TX
Table 18 Polyethylene Plants Starting up 2015-2020 
Table 19 North Sea Ethane Balance
Table 20 International Ethane Terminals
Table 21 Dedicated Ethane Carrier Fleet
Table 22 Ship Investment Analysis Assumptions
Table 23 Required Time Charter Equivalent (Day Rate)
Table 24 Voyage Calculation Analysis - Routes U.S. Gulf to Asia.  
Table 25 Voyage Calculation Analysis - Routes U.S. Gulf to Americas
Table 26 Voyage Calculation Analysis - U.S. Gulf and U.S. East Coast to NW Europe
Table 27 Ethane Trade Route, Ship Capacity, and Freight Rate Estimates
Table 28 Largest Ethylene Importing Countries in 1,000 Tons
Table 29 Ethylene International Trade Summary (1,000 Tons)
Table 30 Short-Haul Long-Term Ethylene Trades
Table 31 Long-Haul Ethylene Long-Term Trades
Table 32 Ethylene Long Haul Trade (1,000 Tons)
Table 33 Ethylene Prices in Europe August 2015 to December 2016
Table 34 10-year Ethylene Price in Europe Forecast
Table 35 Major Ethylene Import Terminals
Table 36 U.S. Ethylene Export Marine Freight Costs
Table 37 Largest Ethylene Importing Countries 2004, 2009, 2014
Table 38 Container Freight Rates to Primary U.S. Polyethylene Export Destinations
Table 39 Cost Elements within Container Freight Rates
Table 40 Polyethylene Packaging Costs
Table 41 European Ethane Import Infrastructure Costs
Table 42 Reference Case Margins
Table 43 Low Case Margins
Table 44 High Case Margins

Figure 1 Steam Cracker Feedstock Sources
Figure 2 Steam Cracker Cost as a Function of Feedstock Weight
Figure 3 Ethane Feedstock Product Yield
Figure 4 Naphtha Feedstock Product Yield
Figure 5 Annual Production of Crude Oil in the U.S. 2008 to 2015
Figure 6 Composition of U.S. Gas Production
Figure 7 U.S. Shale Gas Production by Shale Play
Figure 8 Estimated National Average C2+ Gas Composition (1984-2012)
Figure 9 Ethane Monthly Production Forecast
Figure 10 Forecast for Ethane Production 2015-2025
Figure 11 Ethane Production Forecasts for High and Low Oil Price Scenarios
Figure 12 Ethane Prices versus Natural Gas Prices
Figure 13 U.S. Ethane Cracker Demand 2014 to 2020
Figure 14 Ethane-Production Capacity vs. Cracker Capacity
Figure 15 Ethane Price 18-Month Forecast
Figure 16 Ethane Price Ten-Year Forecast
Figure 17 Ethylene Price Eighteen-Month Forecast
Figure 18 Ethylene Price Ten-Year Forecast
Figure 19 High Density Polyethylene Price Eighteen-Month Forecast
Figure 20 High Density Polyethylene Price Ten-Year Forecast 
Figure 21 Low Density Polyethylene Price Eighteen-Month Forecast
Figure 22 Low Density Polyethylene Price Ten-Year Forecast
Figure 23 Ethylene Production by Feedstock in U.S. 2012 to 2025
Figure 24 U.S. Ethylene Exports 2001-2015
Figure 25 Quarterly U.S. Ethylene Export 2010-2015 by Destination
Figure 26 Derivative Share of U.S. Ethylene Capacity
Figure 27 Gross Domestic Product Growth 2016-2025
Figure 28 U.S. Exports of Ethylene Polymers Growth Rate 2005-2014
Figure 29 U.S. Export of Ethylene Polymers to the American Continents
Figure 30 U.S. Export of Ethylene Polymers to Europe and Asia 
Figure 31 Global Cracker Capacity by Region
Figure 32 Cracker Feedstock Composition by Region
Figure 33 Contracted Ethane Volumes by Trade Route
Figure 34 Price Premium for Ethane Carriers versus Conventional LNG Carriers
Figure 35 Time Charter Rates and Corresponding Return on Equity
Figure 36 Global Cracker Capacity by Region. 
Figure 37 Long Haul Ethylene Import by Region
Figure 38 Global Ethylene Trade 2010 to 2014
Figure 39 Regional Ethylene Trade 2010 to 2014
Figure 40 Ethylene Prices in Europe and Nonlinear Estimation with Interaction Term
Figure 41 Ethylene Price Forecasts
Figure 42 Ethylene Prices in Europe 2015 to 2025
Figure 43 Total Ethylene Trade vs. Brent Crude Price
Figure 44 Ethylene Carrier Fleet 8000-24,000 cbm
Figure 45 Global Polyethylene Trade
Figure 46 Polymers of Ethylene, Net Exporting Regions
Figure 47 Polymers of Ethylene Net Importing Regions
Figure 48 Liquefaction and Throughput Cost Benchmarks for U.S. Ports
Figure 49 Project Investment and Corresponding Throughput/USD/Ton Cost
Figure 50 Margin Flow Process
Figure 51 Domestic Feedstock Margin Calculations
Figure 52 Imported Feedstock Margin Calculations
Figure 53 U.S. Reference Case Ethylene Export Margin Forecast By Feedstock
Figure 54 U.S. High Case Ethylene Export Margin Forecast By Feedstock
Figure 55 U.S. Low Case Ethylene Export Margin Forecast By Feedstock
Figure 56 Ethane Margin Breakdown by Region

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  • Axiall/Lotte
  • Braskem
  • Chevron Phillips
  • Dow Chemical
  • ExxonMobil
  • Formosa 
  • Oxichem/Mexichem
  • PTT/Marubeni
  • Sasol
  • Shell
  • Shin-Etsu
  • Total
  • Williams
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