US Ethylene & Polyethylene Export Report

  • ID: 3993850
  • Report
  • Region: United States
  • 70 Pages
  • FC Business Intelligence Ltd.
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Expansions In Production Capacity and Cost Competitiveness Have Established the Middle East As a Leading Polyethylene Export Region

FEATURED COMPANIES

  • Axiall/Lotte
  • Chevron Phillips
  • ExxonMobil
  • Oxichem/Mexichem
  • Sasol
  • Shin-Etsu
  • MORE
  • Trade Flows
  • US ethylene & polyethylene production capacities and export volumes
  • Price Forecasting
  • Regression analysis and scenario modelling of ethylene, LDPE and HDPE prices to 2025
  • Export Costs
  • Shipping, packaging and logistics costs for key export markets

To date, the U.S. has a single ethylene export terminal on line, though the terminal has shipped relatively small annual volumes since commissioning. The terminal is located at the Targa Resources’ Houston terminal, and a single exporter controls the terminal. The increased production of U.S. ethylene and the associated investment in new U.S. polyethylene capacity will increase North American polyethylene production to over 54 billion pounds per year by 2020, up from 44 billion pounds as of the end of 2014. This increase assumes 75% of the announced polyethylene projects are actually built and commissioned by 2020. In addition, industry sources cite the potential addition of another 2 billion pounds of capacity over this time frame.

The significant U.S. ethylene supply and U.S. ethylene feedstock cost advantages will increase U.S. polyethylene production beyond domestic demand and support export volumes over the period. Excess North American polyethylene production available for export will be 6–9 billion pounds within the 2016–2020 time frame, assuming 75% of the announced polyethylene projects are actually built and commissioned by 2020. The logistics infrastructure to transport polyethylene internationally in containers is well established and investments to support significant increase in polyethylene container exports from the U.S. focus on shipping container, product packaging, and container loading capacity improvements.

The report analyses utilized ethylene trade market data from the U.S. and Asia in the U.S. export scenarios. Most analysis conditions showed limited value for U.S. ethylene exports relative to the total value potential for exported ethane and/or polyethylene. International trade of polyethylene has nearly doubled from 26 million tons in 2001 to 50 million tons in 2014. Over the last five years, global trade volume has expanded on average by 5% per year but showed only a very marginal growth in 2014. Expansions in production capacity and cost competitiveness have established the Middle East as a leading polyethylene export region, with annual export volumes nearly four times more than the volume of the next highest exporting regions.

China is the largest polyethylene importer, receiving more than 10 million tons in 2014 equivalent to around 20% of all internationally traded polyethylene. India and Singapore are the two strongest growing import markets, increasing from nearly no imports ten years ago to 1.8 million tons and 1.4 million tons in 2014, respectively. As new U.S. polyethylene capacity comes on line in 2016 and beyond, the U.S. will become a significant net exporter of polyethylene and put pressure on the international polyethylene supply/demand balance. The transport of polyethylene is accomplished via three standard modes: palletized 25-KG bags, super sacks, and dry bulk containers.

This report standardizes the transport mode assessments on palletized 25 KG bags in 40 foot containers since all container ports, logistics services and customers are able to handle this mode. The containersare moved via existing infrastructure between ships, trains, and trucks as they transit between cargo origin and destination facilities. Through 2020, the primary U.S. polyethylene export destinations are projected to be Northwest Europe, Brazil, South Korea, and China.

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FEATURED COMPANIES

  • Axiall/Lotte
  • Chevron Phillips
  • ExxonMobil
  • Oxichem/Mexichem
  • Sasol
  • Shin-Etsu
  • MORE

List of Tables
Table 1 Product Yield by Feedstock
Table 2 Ethane Export Contracts Announced To Date
Table 3 Announced U.S. Ethane Cracker Expansion
Table 4 Reference case monthly Ethane, Ethylene, LDPE and HDPE Pricing forecast 
Table 5 Reference case yearly Ethane, Ethylene, LDPE and HDPE Pricing forecast
Table 6 Low Oil Price Case Ethane, Ethylene, LDPE and HDPE Monthly Pricing Forecast 
Table 7 Low Oil Price Ethane, Ethylene, LDPE and HDPE Yearly Forecast
Table 8 High Oil Price Case Monthly Ethane, Ethylene HDPE and LDPE Pricing Forecast
Table 9 High Oil Price Case Ethane, Ethylene HDPE and LDPE Yearly Pricing Forecast
Table 10 Feedstock Demand and Supply Forecast 2012 to 2015
Table 11 U.S. Polyethylene Projects 
Table 12 U.S. Ethylene Export in 2015 through Targa Terminal, Houston, TX
Table 13 Polyethylene Plants Starting up 2015–
Table 14 Largest Ethylene importing countries in 1,000 
Table 15 Ethylene International Trade Summary (1,000 Ton  
Table 16 Short-Haul Long-Term Ethylene Trades
Table 17 Long-Haul Ethylene Long-Term Trades
Table 18 Ethylene long haul trade (1,000 tons
Table 19 Ethylene prices in Europe August 2015 to December 2015
Table 20 10-year ethylene price in Europe forecast 
Table 21 Major Ethylene Import Terminals
Table 22 U.S. Ethylene Export Marine Freight Costs 
Table 23 Largest Ethylene Importing Countries 2004, 2009,
Table 24 Container Freight Rates to Primary U.S. Polyethylene Export Destination 
Table 25 Cost Elements within Container Freight Rates 
Table 26 Polyethylene Packaging Costs 
Table 27 European Ethane Import Infrastructure Cost 
Table 28 Reference Case Margin 
Table 29 Low Case Margin
Table 30 High Case Margin

List of Figures
Figure 1 Steam Cracker Feedstock Sources
Figure 2 Steam Cracker Cost as a Function of Feedstock Weight
Figure 3 Ethane feedstock product yield
Figure 4 Naphtha Feedstock Product Yield
Figure 5 Ethane Price 18-Month Forecast 
Figure 6 Ethane Price Ten-Year Forecast 
Figure 7 Ethylene Price Eighteen-Month Forecast
Figure 8 Ethylene Price Ten-Year Forecast 
Figure 9 High Density Polyethylene Price Eighteen-Month Forecast
Figure 10 High Density Polyethylene Price Ten-Year Forecast  
Figure 11 Low Density Polyethylene Price Eighteen-Month Forecast
Figure 12 Low Density Polyethylene Price Ten-Year Forecast  
Figure 13 Ethylene Production by Feedstock in U.S. 2012 to 2015
Figure 14 U.S. Ethylene Exports 2001–2015
Figure 15 Quarterly U.S. Ethylene Export 2010–2015 by Destination
Figure 16 Derivative Share of U.S. Ethylene Capacity
Figure 17 Gross Domestic Product Growth 2016–2020 
Figure 18 U.S. Exports of Ethylene Polymers Growth Rate 2005–2014
Figure 19 U.S. Export of Ethylene Polymers to the American Continents 
Figure 20 U.S. Export of Ethylene Polymers to Europe and Asia
Figure 21 Long Haul Ethylene Import by Region
Figure 22 Global Ethylene Trade 2010 to 2015
Figure 23 Regional Ethylene Trade 2010 to 2015
Figure 24 Ethylene Prices in Europe and Nonlinear Estimation with Interaction Term  
Figure 25 Ethylene Price Forecasts 
Figure 26 Ethylene prices in Europe 2015 to 2015 
Figure 27 Total Ethylene Trade vs. Brent Crude Pri
Figure 28 Ethylene Carrier Fleet 8,000–24,000 cb
Figure 29 Global Polyethylene Trade
Figure 30 Polymers of Ethylene, Net Exporting Regio 
Figure 31 Polymers of Ethylene Net Importing Regio 
Figure 32 Liquefaction and Throughput Cost Benchmarks for U.S. Ports  
Figure 33 Project Investment and Corresponding Throughput/USD/Ton Cos   
Figure 34 Margin Flow Proce 
Figure 35 Domestic Feedstock Margin Calculatio
Figure 36 Imported Feedstock Margin Calculatio
Figure 37 U.S. Reference Case Ethylene Export Margin Forecast By Feedstock 
Figure 38 U.S. High Case Ethylene Export Margin Forecast By Feedstock 
Figure 39 U.S. Low Case Ethylene Export Margin Forecast By Feedsto
Figure 40 Ethane margin breakdown by region

List of Appendices
Appendix 1 EIA National Average Natural Gas Composition Dat
Appendix 2 Ethane Forecast Based On Natural Gas Liquid & Crude Oil Production (August 2015-November 2016) 
Appendix 3 Annualized Production Of Ethane, Crude Oil, And Natural Gas Liquids (1000S Of Barrels) 1981–2014. 
Appendix 4 Crude Oil And Natural Gas Liquids Conversion From Quadrillion Btu To 1,000 Barrels/Year. 
Appendix 5 Report Estimation Methodology 

Tables
Table A Regression parameters from daily data
Table B Two-step methodology and assumption 
Table C Linear model parameter figures of merit for significance
Table D Regression Coefficient and MAE during Backward Stepwise Regression

Figures
Figure A EIA WTI Oil Forecasts by Case .
Figure B EIA Brent Oil Forecasts by Case
Figure C EIA Natural Gas HH Forecasts by Case
Figure D Ethylene Price in Europe (orange series) and Estimated Price Using Brent and Naphtha Prices in Europe

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  • Axiall/Lotte
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  • Formosa
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  • Sasol
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