Eurasia Smart Grid: Market Forecast (2016-2026)

  • ID: 4033608
  • Report
  • Region: Asia, Europe
  • 158 Pages
  • Northeast Group, LLC
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Eurasian Countries Are Projected to Invest $23bn in Smart Grid Infrastructure Over the Next Decade.

A regional study of the smart grid market in Eurasia over the period 2016-2026 (158-pages + PowerPoint + dataset).

The Eurasia region has several drivers for smart grid investment, including an initial base of smart meters already present in the region. Driven by high non-technical losses and aided by affordable local vendors, utilities - particularly in Russia and Ukraine - have been ambitious in deploying smart meters, despite a lack of strong regulatory incentives. This bodes well for future deployments, as investment should continue even without strong regulatory drivers. This includes investment in advanced metering infrastructure (AMI), distribution automation (DA), wide area measurement (WAM), home energy management (HEM), information technology (IT), and battery storage. 

This in-depth study covers all twelve former Soviet countries not currently in the EU,  which share several key characteristics. Until 1991, they were all part of the Soviet Union. As a result, they share not only an interconnected power grid but also a legacy of inefficient power usage across the residential, commercial, and especially industrial segments. On average, Eurasian countries have the highest energy intensity of any emerging market region in the world. Until recently, this had been ignored by governments eager to streamline economic growth, but in the past decade all major countries have passed some form of energy efficiency law. Smart grid infrastructure will play an important role in improving the energy efficiency of Eurasian economies - both through direct incentives such as revised tariffs and by making consumers more aware of their energy consumption.

Electricity transmision and distribution (T&D) losses are elevated across Eurasia-almost all rating higher than the emerging market average, in some cases exceeding 20%. Smart meters are the most effective tool at reducing loss rates. They have already succeeded in bringing rates in Russia and Ukraine close to the emerging market average and multilateral financing programs are in place to reduce losses in other countries. In many cases, reducing losses can provide enough savings to cover the costs of smart metering investments, even without a strong regulatory framework.

Such a clear-cut business case is necessary for at least the next few years, as the political and regulatory environment in Eurasian countries is challenging. No Eurasian countries have meaningful smart grid regulations, and energy efficiency and renewable energy regulations are still in their early stages. Meanwhile, corruption remains extremely high, with almost all Eurasian countries falling in the bottom quartile of Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index. Political risk has only worsened since 2014 due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. This creates considerable risk throughout the region, all of which Russia considers under its sphere of influence. In some cases, economic sanctions present significant obstacles to smart grid activity for Western vendors in the near term.
 
But ultimately, the conditions for smart grid development in Eurasia are strong enough to drive investment in all but the most challenging regulatory environments. Meanwhile, even in countries with poor economic and political climates, multilateral funding may be available to ensure secure financing, implement necessary technical standards, and overcome political risk hurdles - as is the current case in Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan. With poor energy efficiency, high non-technical losses, and knowledgeable local firms eager to partner with international smart grid vendors, the medium-term outlook for smart grid infrastructure in Eurasia is favorable. By 2026, the smart grid market in Eurasia will be comparable to that of Central & Eastern Europe, and trail only China, India, and Latin America among emerging market regions in total market size.

Key questions answered in this study: 

  • Where are the newest smart grid announcements and deployments in Eurasia?
  • How large will the smart grid market be across 12 Eurasian countries?
  • How will political risk prove to be an obstacle in the Eurasia smart grid market?
  • How will smart grid projects be financed in the near to medium-term in Eurasia?
  • Who are the most active local and international vendors in the Eurasia market?
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i. Executive Summary
i.i What’s new in 2016?
i.ii Eurasia smart grid summary
ii. Methodology

1. Introduction
1.1 What is smart grid?
1.2 How is smart grid being used elsewhere in the world?

2. Eurasia smart grid snapshot
2.1 The region in comparison
2.2 Regional drivers
2.3 Regional challenges

3. Regional market forecast

4. Russia
4.1 Electricity industry structure
4.2 Smart grid regulatory environment
4.3 Market forecast
4.4 Utility activity

5. Uzbekistan
5.1 Electricity industry structure
5.2 Smart grid regulatory environment
5.3 Market forecast
5.4 Utility activity

6. Ukraine
6.1 Electricity industry structure
6.2 Smart grid regulatory environment
6.3 Market forecast
6.4 Utility activity

7. Kazakhstan
7.1 Electricity industry structure
7.2 Smart grid regulatory environment
7.3 Market forecast
7.4 Utility activity

8. Kyrgyzstan
8.1 Electricity industry structure
8.2 Smart grid regulatory environment
8.3 Market forecast
8.4 Utility activity

9. Other countries
9.1 Eastern Europe: Belarus and Moldova
9.2 Caucasus: Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia
9.3 Central Asia: Tajikistan and Turkmenistan

10. Vendor activity
10.1 Eurasia-based vendors
10.2 International vendors active in Eurasia

11. Appendix
11.1 List of companies covered in this report
11.2 List of acronyms

List of Figures, Boxes, and Tables:
Eurasia smart grid: key takeaways
Notable smart grid activity in Eurasia since 2014
Smart meter deployments in Eurasia (2015-2016)
Distribution companies controlled by Rosseti (Russian Grids)
Multilateral bank funding
Ukraine renewable energy legislative developments
Comparison to 2014 forecast
Cumulative smart meter deployments in Eurasia (2016)
Major smart meter deployments in Russia
Energy intensity in Eurasia
Electricity T&D losses in Eurasia
Average smart grid regulatory scores in emerging markets
Ranking in TI’s Corruption Perceptions Index 2015
Leading smart grid vendors based in Eurasia
Market share of leading vendors in Eurasia
Eurasia cumulative smart grid forecast by country
Eurasia cumulative smart grid forecast data by country
Smart Grid Forecasting Model
Figure 1.1: Smart grid value chain
Figure 1.2: Smart grid model highlighting focus in Eurasia
Table 1.1: Benefits of AMI in Eurasia
Table 1.2: Demand response options
Figure 1.3: Global smart grid activity
Figure 1.4: Cumulative AMI investment by region in 2016
Figure 1.5: Cumulative DA investment by region in 2016
Figure 1.6: Cumulative AMI investment by region from 2016-2026
Figure 1.7: Cumulative DA investment by region from 2016-2026
Figure 2.1: Emerging markets smart meter potential
Figure 2.2: Per-capita electricity consumption
Figure 2.3: Per-capita CO2 emissions
Figure 2.4: Projected GDP growth in Eurasia (2017-2021)
Figure 2.5: Electricity T&D losses in Eurasia
Figure 2.6: Energy intensity in Eurasia
Table 2.1: Reliability indicators in Eurasia
Figure 2.7: Solar and wind resources in Eurasia
Figure 2.8: Average regulatory scores in emerging markets
Figure 2.9: Per-capita income in Eurasia
Figure 2.10: Electricity prices in emerging markets
Figure 2.11: Ranking in TI’s Corruption Perceptions Index 2015
Figure 3.1: Eurasia AMI penetration rate
Figure 3.2: Eurasia cumulative smart grid forecast by country
Table 3.1: Eurasia cumulative smart grid forecast data by country
Figure 3.3: Eurasia cumulative smart grid forecast
Table 3.2: Eurasia cumulative smart grid forecast data
Figure 3.4: Annual AMI deployments in Eurasia
Figure 3.5: AMI cost breakdown
Figure 3.6: AMI forecast by segment
Table 3.3: AMI forecast data by segment
Figure 3.7: DA forecast by segment
Table 3.4: DA forecast data by segment
Figure 3.8: HEM forecast by segment
Table 3.5: HEM forecast data by segment
Figure 3.9: IT forecast by segment
Table 3.6: IT forecast data by segment
Table 4.1: Russia key data
Figure 4.1: Russia AMI penetration rate
Table 4.2: Smart grid indicators in Russia
Box 4.1: Political risk in Russia
Figure 4.2: Distribution companies controlled by Rosseti (Russian Grids)
Figure 4.3: Federal regulations affecting smart grid in Russia
Box 4.2: Standards for T&D and metering devices in Russia
Figure 4.4: Russia cumulative smart grid forecast
Table 4.3: Russia cumulative smart grid forecast data
Figure 4.5: Russia cumulative AMI forecast
Table 4.4: Russia cumulative AMI forecast data
Figure 4.6: Major smart meter deployments in Russia
Table 4.5: Russian Grids subsidiary deployments (2015-2016)
Table 5.1: Uzbekistan key data
Figure 5.1: Uzbekistan AMI penetration rate
Table 5.2: Smart grid indicators in Uzbekistan
Box 5.1: Political risk in Uzbekistan 
Table 5.3: Uzbekistan multilateral funding programs for AMI metering
Figure 5.2: Multilateral funding programs for AMI metering in Uzbekistan
Figure 5.3: Uzbekistan cumulative smart grid forecast
Table 5.4: Uzbekistan cumulative smart grid forecast data
Figure 5.4: Uzbekistan cumulative AMI forecast
Table 5.5: Uzbekistan cumulative AMI forecast data
Table 6.1: Ukraine key data
Figure 6.1: Ukraine AMI penetration rate
Table 6.2: Smart grid indicators in Ukraine
Box 6.1: Political risk in Ukraine
Figure 6.2: Non-traditional renewable energy generation in Ukraine
Table 6.3: Ukraine renewable energy legislative developments
Figure 6.3: Ukraine cumulative smart grid forecast
Table 6.4: Ukraine cumulative smart grid forecast data
Figure 6.4: Ukraine cumulative AMI forecast
Table 6.5: Ukraine cumulative AMI forecast data
Table 7.1: Kazakhstan key data
Figure 7.1: Kazakhstan AMI penetration rate
Table 7.2: Smart grid indicators in Kazakhstan
Box 7.1: Political risk in Kazakhstan
Figure 7.2: Countries with highest per-capita CO2 emissions
Figure 7.3: Kazakhstan cumulative smart grid forecast
Table 7.3: Kazakhstan cumulative smart grid forecast data
Figure 7.4: Kazakhstan cumulative AMI forecast
Table 7.4: Kazakhstan cumulative AMI forecast data
Table 8.1: Kyrgyzstan key data
Figure 8.1: Kyrgyzstan AMI penetration rate
Table 8.2: Smart grid indicators in Kyrgyzstan
Box 8.1: Political risk in Kyrgyzstan
Figure 8.2: Highest official T&D loss rates
Figure 8.3: Kyrgyzstan cumulative smart grid forecast
Table 8.3: Kyrgyzstan cumulative smart grid forecast data
Figure 8.4: Kyrgyzstan cumulative AMI forecast
Table 8.4: Kyrgyzstan cumulative AMI forecast data
Table 9.1: Other Eurasia key data
Figure 9.1: Other Eurasia cumulative smart grid forecast
Table 9.2: Other Eurasia cumulative smart grid forecast data
Figure 9.2: Other Eurasia cumulative AMI forecast
Table 9.3: Other Eurasia cumulative AMI forecast data
Figure 10.1: Leading smart grid vendors in Eurasia
Figure 10.2: Market share of leading AMI vendors in Eurasia
Figure 10.3: ADD smart meter deployments in Eurasia
Table 10.1: Matritca smart meter deployments in Russia
Table 10.2: Other leading smart grid vendors in Eurasia

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