FTTx Coverage, Conversion and Capex: Worldwide Trends and Forecasts 2016–2021

  • ID: 4036254
  • Report
  • Region: Global
  • 55 pages
  • Analysys Mason Group
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The Number of Available NGA Connections is Fast Approaching the Number of Households Worldwide that Could Afford Such Connections

The number of premises passed by next-generation access (NGA) is fast approaching the number of premises worldwide that could afford such a connection. New competing infrastructures are emerging to meet demand, often from households that have hitherto relied only on mobile. This report analyses and forecasts coverage (premises passed), conversion (active connections as a percentage of premises passed) and capex for FTTx architecture and technologies during 2012–2021.

This report provides:

  • 5-year forecasts for flavours of FTTx and cable broadband in eight regions and in 64 individual markets
  • analysis of the key trends, drivers and inhibitors of network roll-out and of subscriber take-up of FTTx
  • an assessment of the level of capital expenditure out to 2021.

KEY METRICS

  • Coverage (premises passed)
  • Conversion (premises with active connections as a percentage of premises passed)
  • Capex (split into network and connection)

Split by architecture/technology:

  • FTTC/VDSL or G.fast
  • FTTB/VDSL or G.fast
  • FTTB/LAN
  • FTTP (split into incumbent and alternative operator)
  • cable DOCSIS3.0 or 3.1

Note: capex is not provided for cable DOCSIS3.0 or 3.1.

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1. Worldwide trends
1.1 Worldwide: Coverage growth will slow by 2021, but conversion will continue to grow steadily
1.2 NGA will be available to 1.3 billion premises worldwide by 2021
1.3 FTTP availability is increasingly dominated by emerging markets
1.4 Global capex will start to shift to second infrastructures and to upgrades
1.5 The availability of an NGA connection is fast approaching the number of households that could afford such a connection
1.6 The cost:value metrics of FTTP for mid-income countries are generally better than for richer countries
1.7 FTTC incumbents facing a new phase of investment have to balance short-term tactics and long-term
1.8 There is interest, particularly in North America, in ‘5G’ fixed wireless access as an alternative to wireline NGA

2. Western Europe
2.1 Western Europe: Coverage will fall 12% short of the 100% target set by the European Digital Agenda by the end of 2021
2.2 Western Europe: Over 50% of Western European premises will have an NGA connection by 2020, but not all will be 100Mbps

3. Central and Eastern Europe
3.1 Central and Eastern Europe: CEE has good, inexpensive broadband, but rural areas are generally underserved
3.2 Central and Eastern Europe: Fixed–mobile convergence may stimulate take-up

4. Middle East and North Africa
4.1 Middle East and North Africa: There is little incentive to invest outside the GCC markets
4.2 Middle East and North Africa: Lack of competition keeps fibre broadband prices high

5. Sub-Saharan Africa
 5.1 Sub-Saharan Africa: The costs of fibre-based broadband are disproportionately high for a low-income region
 5.2 Sub-Saharan Africa: Services are too embryonic for conversion rates to be meaningful

6. China
6.1 China: The focus of investment has switched to network upgrades and additional competitive infrastructures
6.2 China: Multi-infrastructure competition and FMC is driving prices down and take-up has boomed

7. Rest of emerging Asia–Pacific
7.1 Rest of emerging Asia-Pacific: Where it exists, state-managed roll-out of fixed broadband has led to impressive results
7.2 Rest of emerging Asia-Pacific: Where investment has occurred, take-up rates have the potential to be very good

8. Developed Asia–Pacific
 8.1 Developed Asia-Pacific: Investment is now focused on new and upgraded fibre infrastructures
 8.2 Developed Asia-Pacific: Strong traffic growth and continued take-up spur the case for further investment

9. North America
 9.1 North America: Investment levels are weak in North America
 9.2 North America: Unless prices fall, US conversion rates for FTTx will stagnate; in Canada, the regulator has intervened

10. Latin America
 10.1 Latin America: Cable operators are already well entrenched in the main addressable markets
 10.2 Latin America: Conversion rates remain rather subdued

11. Forecast methodology and assumptions
11.1 Geographical scope: Forecasts are provided for 64 countries in 8 regions
 11.2 Definitions
11.3 We take baseline costs for each technology and then apply several contextspecific variables to determine total capex
 11.4 Top-level breakdown of the relative costs of FTTx technologies: basic topologies
 11.5 Baseline unit cost assumptions for FTTC/VDSL and FTTB/dp/VDSL
 11.6 Baseline unit cost assumptions for FTTP/GPON

About the authors

List of figures
Figure 1: NGA coverage by technology, worldwide, 2011–2021
Figure 2: Fixed broadband active connections, by technology, and NGA share of connections worldwide, 2011–2021
Figure 3: Conversion rates for NGA overall, and FTTP and FTTX, worldwide, 2011–2021
Figure 4: NGA coverage by region, 2013–2021 Figure 5: NGA subscriptions by region, 2013–2021
Figure 6: NGA subscriptions as a proportion of premises passed, by region, 2013–2021
Figure 7: FTTP coverage by region, 2013–2021 Figure 8: FTTP subscriptions by region, 2013–2021
Figure 9: FTTP subscriptions as a proportion of premises passed, by region, 2013–2021
Figure 10: FTTx capex, by worldwide region, 2013–2021 Figure 11: NGA affordability, availability and adoption, worldwide, 2013–2021
Figure 12: Benchmark cost per premises passed, FTTP deployments worldwide
Figure 13: NGA coverage by technology, Western Europe, 2014–2021
Figure 14: FTTx capex by technology, Western Europe, 2014–2021
Figure 15: Conversion rates for NGA overall, and FTTP and FTTx , Western Europe, 2014–2021
Figure 16: Active connections per premises, by technology, Western Europe, 2014–2021
Figure 17: NGA coverage by technology, Central and Eastern Europe, 2014– 2021
Figure 18: FTTx capex by technology, Central and Eastern Europe, 2014–2021
Figure 19: Conversion rates for NGA overall, and FTTP and FTTx , Central and Eastern Europe, 2014–2021
Figure 20: Active connections per premises, by technology, Central and Eastern Europe, 2014–2021
Figure 21: NGA coverage by technology, Middle East and North Africa, 2014– 2021
Figure 22: FTTx capex by technology, Middle East and North Africa, 2014–2021
Figure 23: Conversion rates for NGA overall, and FTTP and FTTx , Middle East and North Africa, 2014–2021
Figure 24: Active connections per premises, by technology, Middle East and North Africa, 2014–2021
Figure 25: NGA coverage by technology, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014–2021
Figure 26: FTTx capex by technology, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014–2021
Figure 27: Conversion rates for NGA overall, and FTTP and FTTx , Middle East and North Africa, 2014–2021
Figure 28: Active connections per premises, by technology, Middle East and North Africa, 2014–2021
Figure 29: NGA coverage by technology, China, 2014–2021
Figure 30: FTTx capex by technology, China, 2014–2021
Figure 31: Conversion rates for NGA overall, and FTTP and FTTx, China, 2014– 2021
Figure 32: Active connections per premises, by technology, China, 2014–2021
Figure 33: NGA coverage by technology, rest of emerging Asia–Pacific, 2014– 2021
Figure 34: FTTx capex by technology, rest of emerging Asia–Pacific, 2014–2021
Figure 35: Conversion rates for NGA overall, and FTTP and FTTx, rest of emerging Asia–Pacific, 2014–2021
Figure 36: Active connections per premises, by technology, rest of emerging Asia–Pacific, 2014–2021
Figure 37: NGA coverage by technology, developed Asia-Pacific, 2014–2021
Figure 38: FTTx capex by technology, developed Asia-Pacific, 2014–2021
Figure 39: Conversion rates for NGA overall, and FTTP and FTTx, developed Asia- Pacific, 2014–2021
Figure 40: Active connections per premises, by technology, developed Asia- Pacific, 2014–2021
Figure 41: NGA coverage by technology, North America, 2014–2021
Figure 42: FTTx capex by technology, North America, 2014–2021
Figure 43: Conversion rates for NGA overall, and FTTP and FTTx, North America, 2014–2021
Figure 44: Active connections per premises, by technology, North America, 2014–2021
Figure 45: NGA coverage by technology, Latin America, 2014–2021
Figure 46: FTTx capex by technology, Latin America, 2014–2021
Figure 47: Conversion rates for NGA overall, and FTTP and FTTx, Latin America, 2014–2021
Figure 48: Active connections per premises, by technology, Latin America, 2014–2021
Figure 49: Countries covered in this report, by region
Figure 50: Definitions used in this report
Figure 51: capex model outline
Figure 52: Basic overview of FTTx network topologies and elements
Figure 53: Baseline capital unit cost assumptions, FTTC/VDSL and FTTB/VDSL
Figure 54: Baseline capital unit cost assumptions, FTTH/GPON

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