Central and Eastern Europe Telecoms Market: Interim Forecast Update (6 Countries) 2016–2021

  • ID: 4047285
  • Report
  • Region: Central Europe, Eastern Europe, Europe
  • 21 pages
  • Analysys Mason Group
1 of 5
The Share of 4G/5G Connections in Central and Eastern Europe will Reach 51%, and will Surpass 70% in Eight Countries by 2021

"The share of 4G/5G connections in Central and Eastern Europe will reach 51%, and will surpass 70% in eight countries by 2021; smartphone penetration will exceed 85% in 11 countries by 2021."

Overall telecoms service revenue in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) will decline during the forecast period as a result of falling mobile voice and messaging revenue. However, we have revised our telecoms retail revenue forecast up because we expect slightly faster growth in broadband and pay-TV revenue than previously forecast.

This report provides:

  •     an interim update of our 5-year forecast (Central and Eastern Europe telecoms market: trends and forecasts (16 countries) 2016-2021, previously published in September 2016) of more than 345 mobile and fixed KPIs for CEE as a whole and for 16 key countries.
  •     an explanation of the significant changes in this edition, compared with previous forecasts.

Revisions to our previous forecasts occurred mainly for the following reasons:

  •     market developments – based on recent market events and latest reported operator and regulator data (2Q 2016)
  •     changes to the competitive and regulatory environment
  •     changes to the macroeconomic outlook and exchange rates used to derive revenue in constant EUR
  •     changes to historical data because of newly available information.

Key performance indicators

Connections

Mobile

  •     Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
  •     Prepaid, contract
  •     2G, 3G, 4G, 5G
  •     Smartphone,
  •     non-smartphone

Fixed

  •     Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up
  •     Narrowband voice, VoBB
  •     DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other

Fixed and mobile voice traffic

    Outgoing minutes, MoU

Revenue

Mobile

  •     Service, retail
  •     Prepaid, contract
  •     Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
  •     Handset voice, messaging, data

Fixed

  •     Service, retail
  •     Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up, BNS
  •     DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other

Mobile ARPU

  •     SIMs, handset
  •     Prepaid, contract
  •     Handset voice, data
READ MORE
Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
2 of 5

1. Executive summary and regional forecasts
2. Mobile handset data revenue in Central and Eastern Europe will drive telecoms revenue and the decline of fixed revenue will slow down
3. Smartphones and 4G/5G: The rate of smartphone take-up in CEE will be fast, including those countries with slower LTE network deployments
4. Fixed services: Fixed broadband household penetration will reach 61%, and NGA technology will account for 78% of FBB lines in CEE by 2021
5. Key regional changes since our previous forecast: fixed broadband and IPTV revenue has been revised up, while voice revenue erosion continues
6. Key regional changes since our previous forecast: fixed broadband and IPTV revenue has been revised up, while voice revenue erosion continues
7. Individual country forecasts
8. Czech Republic: The revenue forecast is more optimistic, thanks to significant improvements in the mobile market
9. Poland: A decline in mobile broadband revenue will be slower, despite government plans to support fixed broadband roll-outs
10. Russia: A poorly performing mobile market forces a downward revision of the forecast
11. Russia: A poorly performing mobile market forces a downward revision of the forecast
12. About the authors

List of figures
Figure 1: Telecoms and pay-TV retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Central and Eastern Europe, 2011–2021
Figure 2: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and 4G/5G’s share of total connections (excluding IoT), Central and Eastern Europe, 2015 and 2021
Figure 3: Fixed broadband connections by type, and fixed voice, IPTV and mobile broadband connections, Central and Eastern Europe, 2011–2021
Figure 4: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast for Central and Eastern Europe
Figure 5: Telecoms retail revenue forecast by service type and total service revenue, previous and new forecasts, Central and Eastern Europe, 2016 and 2021
Figure 6: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Central and Eastern Europe, 2015 and 2021
Figure 7: Connections by type, and growth rates, Central and Eastern Europe, 2015 and 2021
Figure 8: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Czech Republic, 2011–2021
Figure 9: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Czech Republic
Figure 10: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Poland, 2011–2021
Figure 11: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Poland
Figure 12: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Russia, 2011–2021
Figure 13: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Russia
Figure 14: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Turkey, 2011–2021
Figure 15: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Turkey

Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
3 of 5

Loading
LOADING...

4 of 5

Countries modelled individually

  •     Bulgaria
  •     Croatia
  •     Czech Republic
  •     Estonia
  •     Hungary
  •     Latvia
  •     Lithuania
  •     Montenegro
  •     Poland
  •     Romania
  •     Russia
  •     Serbia
  •     Slovakia
  •     Slovenia
  •     Turkey
  •     Ukraine

Countries not modelled individually, but modelled as part of the region as a whole

  •     Albania
  •     Belarus
  •     Bosnia
  •     Macedonia
  •     Moldova
Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
5 of 5
Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
Adroll
adroll