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Country Risk Service Spain 1st Quarter Updater

  • ID: 4083313
  • Country Profile
  • Region: Spain
  • 18 Pages
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit
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The score is near the centre of the BBB band. Fiscal dynamics are improving, with real GDP growth estimated at 2.5% in 2018 and forecast at 2.3% in 2019. The budget deficit will narrow to 1.9% of GDP this year. Debt peaked at 100.4% of GDP in 2014 and is expected to decline to 95.4% by end-2019. Separatist tensions in Catalonia remain a risk, but have fallen significantly since mid-2018.

The score is unchanged, at 26, and the rating remains at A. An improved economic and institutional outlook for the euro zone has increased its resilience to political risk and external shocks, and structural support for the currency comes from a large regional current-account surplus. We expect the euro to average about US$1.20:EUR1 in 2019-20, after an estimated US$1.18:EUR1 in 2018.

Restructuring under the 2012 European Stability Mechanism bail-out and solid economic growth have improved the banking sector's health, with the non-performing loan ratio only slightly higher than the euro zone average. The rating remains at BBB. However, weaknesses persist, particularly low profitability and legacy issues at some institutions.
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Country Risk Service Spain 1st Quarter Updater

Risk assessment
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk

Definitions
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk
Overall country risk

Central scenario for 2019-23: Political stability

Central scenario for 2019-23: Election watch

Central scenario for 2019-23: International relations

Central scenario for 2019-23: Policy trends

Central scenario for 2019-23: Fiscal policy

Central scenario for 2019-23: Monetary policy

Central scenario for 2019-23: Economic growth

Central scenario for 2019-23: Inflation

Central scenario for 2019-23: Exchange rates

Central scenario for 2019-23: External sector

Key risk indicators

Ratings summary

Quarterly indicators

International assumptions summary

Economic structure

Public finances

Exchange rates, interest rates and prices

Financial sector

Current account

Foreign payment and liquidity indicators

External trade
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