Developed Asia-Pacific Telecoms Market: Interim Forecast Update 2016-2021

  • ID: 4109841
  • Report
  • 21 pages
  • Analysys Mason Group
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Telecoms Retail Revenue in Developed Asia-Pacific will Grow at a CAGR of 0.6% from 2015 to 2021 When it will Reach USD178 Billion

Mobile handset data, IoT, fixed broadband and IPTV revenue will continue to increase during the forecast period. Revenue growth will be driven by operators investing in mobile network technologies, offering fixed-mobile converged bundles, upgrading fixed networks to high-speed technologies, and forging partnerships with OTT video players.

This report and associated data annex provide:

  •     an interim update of our 5-year forecast (Developed Asia-Pacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2016-2021, previously published in November 2016) of more than 175 mobile and fixed KPIs for DVAP as a whole and for 6 key countries
  •     an explanation of the significant changes in this edition, compared with our previous forecasts.

Revisions to our previous forecasts occurred mainly for the following reasons:

  •     market developments - based on recent market events and latest reported operator and regulator data (2Q 2016)
  •     changes to the competitive and regulatory environment
  •     changes to the macroeconomic outlook and exchange rates used to derive revenue in constant US dollars
  •     changes to historical data because of newly available information.

Key performance indicators

Connections

Mobile

  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
  • Prepaid, contract
  • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G
  • Smartphone, non-smartphone

Fixed

  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up
  • Narrowband voice, VoBB
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other

Voice traffic

  • Outgoing minutes, MoU

Revenue

Mobile

  • Service, retail
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
  • Handset voice, messaging, data

Fixed

  • Service, retail
  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up, BNS
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other

Mobile ARPU

  • SIMs, handset
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset voice, data
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Executive summary and regional forecasts
Telecoms retail revenue for developed Asia-Pacific will grow steadily from USD172 billion in 2015 to USD178 billion in 2021
Smartphones and 4G/5G: Smartphones and 4G will have become mainstream by the end of the forecast period
Fixed services: FTTP/B connections will continue to increase during the forecast period, while DSL will decline
Key regional changes since the previous forecast: the take-up of 4G services and multi-play bundles has increased
Forecast revision: Traditional revenue streams will deplete more quickly than expected but fixed broadband and IPTV revenue will grow faster
Individual country forecasts
Australia: The change in termination rates has affected operator service revenue
Hong Kong: Operators are embedding multiple features inset-top boxes to attract consumers and encourage IPTV take-up
Japan: We have reduced our telecoms retail revenue forecastdue to competitive data pricing and declining voice revenue
Singapore: Operators have dropped data prices and offer converged services to grow their postpaidbase
South Korea: Operators are working on technology development and using newly acquired spectrum to monetise 4G
Taiwan: Unlimited data plans have increased data traffic but hampered profitability and overall revenue
About the authors

List of figures

Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, developed Asia-Pacific, 2011-2021
Figure 2: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets and 4G/5G's share of total connections (excluding IoT), developed Asia-Pacific, 2015 and 2021
Figure 3: Fixed broadband connections by type, and fixed voice, IPTV and mobile broadband connections, developed Asia-Pacific, 2011-2021
Figure 4: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast for developed Asia-Pacific
Figure 5: Telecoms retail revenue forecast by service type and total service revenue, previous and new forecasts, developed Asia-Pacific, 2016 and 2021
Figure 6: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, developed Asia-Pacific, 2015 and 2021
Figure 7: Connections by type, and growth rates, developed Asia-Pacific, 2015 and 2021
Figure 8: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Australia, 2011-2021
Figure 9: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Australia
Figure 10: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Hong Kong, 2011-2021
Figure 11: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Hong Kong
Figure 12: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Japan, 2011-2021
Figure 13: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Japan
Figure 14: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Singapore, 2011-2021
Figure 15: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Singapore
Figure 16: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, South Korea, 2011-2021
Figure 17: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, South Korea
Figure 18: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Taiwan, 2011-2021
Figure 19: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Taiwan

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Countries modelled individually

  • Australia
  • Hong Kong
  • Japan
  • Singapore
  • South Korea
  • Taiwan

Countries not modelled individually, but modelled as part of the region as a whole

  • Brunei
  • French Polynesia
  • Guam
  • Macau
  • New Caledonia
  • New Zealand
  • Northern Mariana Islands
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