Autonomous Vehicles to 2027: A Detailed Review

  • ID: 4117864
  • Report
  • 197 pages
  • Autelligence
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"The new world will be defined by automated driving, in the future it will be an everyday feature of our life and it will completely change mobility” – Herbert Diess, Chairman of the Board of Management of Volkswagen

In-depth analysis of the impact of autonomous driving on the automotive industry: business models, regulation, technology, industry restructuring, forecasts for adoption

Within a seemingly impossibly short time frame, not only the concept of autonomous cars but actual deployment of autonomous technology on the road has gone from blue sky theory almost to everyday reality. The automotive industry is faced with radical and deep-rooted change.

Based on extensive primary and secondary research and original surveys, “Autonomous vehicles to 2027” seeks to make sense of developments by breaking them down into their key parts, analysing the impact of each area, and pulling everything together to provide an assessment of the real significance of developments.

Report section overview

  • Context: development factors, market, end user, environmental and societal developments & changes, timing and speed of technology take-up
  • Technology: developments in hardware, software, engineering and communication technology, technology roadmap 2017 to 2030
  • Regional trends: national and regional policy in North America, Europe, Asia and elsewhere
  • The industry: impact of context, technology and regional trends on the automotive industry, including finance, product development, research and partnerships in relation to traditional OEMs, suppliers and new/start-up entrant businesses.
  • Outlook: the AV industry and market out to 2027

Key issues covered

  • Business models and the new personal transport ecosystem – the auto industry as part of the new transportation system, ride-sharing, ownership models, services, incremental or disruptive
  • Regulation, risk and litigation – machine morality, liability, legislation, safety
  • The technical evolution of the autonomous car – enabling the next level of ADAS, safety, technology
  • Roadmap to autonomous driving – global development of research and innovation projects, state level initiatives
  • Enabling technology – power, communication, network design, software, sensors (clusters, modules, sensor fusion), HMI, mapping
  • Keys to success – value chain development, powertrain, chassis sytems, interior, exterior
  • Potential for industry restructuring – the auto industry now, recent changes in transportation, new entrants and start-ups, OEM and supplier initiatives, integrating the old with the new
  • Forecast for adoption – driving factors, projected adoption by region, risks
  • Structure of the self-driving car industry

Why should you buy this report?

  • Get an integrated view of how autonomous driving will change automotive, mobility, insurance and technology
  • Find out how the industry’s structure is likely to change, and understand where your company fits into it
  • Assess current technology and understand the companies delivering it
  • Understand where autonomous driving is now, where it is likely to go, and how fast it is likely to move
  • Stay up to date: The report includes quarterly updates of development in autonomous driving completed, analysed and written by the report author team, and access to our database of self-driving car related announcements, updated weekly by our team.

Methodology

  • Primary research and analysis: Academic or commercially available literature, conference presentations at events throughout 2015 and 2016, original survey of automotive executives on their view of how autonomous driving will shape the industry and their company
  • Secondary research: Extensive researching and synthesizing of company data, model launches, technology initiatives, strategic analysis of leading companies in the sector



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FEATURED COMPANIES

  • Alibaba
  • Audi
  • BMW
  • General Motors
  • Toyota
  • Volvo
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Introduction

They’re Everywhere
Definitions of Autonomous Driving
Approaches to Autonomous Driving
Google
Nissan
Tesla
Analysing & Assessing Autonomous Driving Developments

Chapter 1: Context

The future suddenly seems a lot closer
Restructuring Surface Transport
Population Growth and Urbanisation
Market Issues
Greenhouse emissions, Self-driving and Mass Transit
Safety and Autonomous Vehicles
The Technology
Evolution versus Revolution
    The ‘Traditional’ Approach
    The New Players’ Approach
Technology Development
OEM Technology Announcements
Some Conclusions

Chapter 2: Autonomous Vehicle (AV) Technology

Introduction
AV Technology Overview
Architecture
Functional Blocks
    Perception
    Decision-Making
    Manoeuvring
Driving & Riding in an Autonomous Vehicle
Driver Inattention/Distraction
Situational Awareness
The Human Machine Interface
    Monitoring the Occupants
    Augmented Reality
    HMI – Information Overload?
A Technology Roadmap: 2017 to 2030

Chapter 3: Regional & Country Policies on Autonomous Vehicles

Europe
Germany
    The FMTDI Automated Driving Round Table
    The Digital Autobahn Test Zone
    The UR:BAN Project – Urban Space
    Autonomous Commercial Vehicles
    Digital Infrastructure Initiatives
    AV Policy Initiatives
    Standardisation
United Kingdom
    AV Testbed Projects
    Real-world Testing of AV Technology
    AV Research & Development Funding
    AV Policy Initiatives
France
    New Industrial France
    AV Roadmap
    AV Test Policy
    Conference of Parties on Climate Change
Netherlands
    Dutch Initiative for Smart Mobility
    European Truck Platooning Challenge
    AV Trials
    Dutch Automated Vehicle Initiative
Sweden
    Drive Me Project
    Vision Zero Initiative
    AV Test Policy
Spain
    Government Initiatives
    AV Research
Finland
    Legal Framework and Vehicle Testing
    The Aurora Test Centre
    NordicWay Agreement
Italy
    AV Regulation
    AV and Related Project Examples
North America
United States
    Federal Initiatives
    State Initiatives
Canada
    National Initiatives
    Provincial & City Initiatives
Asia
China
    Legislation
    Example Trials and OEM Activity
South Korea
    Government Initiatives
    Example AV Trials and R&D
Japan
    Government Initiatives
    Example AV Activity
A Selection of AV Activity Elsewhere
Singapore
Taiwan
Australia
Tables

Chapter 4: Implications for Automotive Industry Structure

Introduction
Structural Features of Automotive Industry
    Other Radical Transformations for The Transportation Economy
    Electric vehicles
The Position of Automotive OEMs
Acquisitions and Investments by OEMs
2016 – Example Investments
    General Motors
    Ford
    Audi
    Volkswagen
    BMW
    Toyota
    Volvo
2015 – Example OEM Investments
    New Entrant Activity
    Alibaba
    Apple
    Baidu
    Google
    Yandex
Legacy OEMs Shift to Contract Manufacturing?
Start-ups
Traditional First-Tier Suppliers
Key Advantages
    Developing New Capabilities
    Mergers and Acquisitions
Sub-system and Non-Automotive Suppliers
Conclusion
Tables
AV-related OEM Investments and Partnerships
    2016
    2015
Interest from Non-Automotive Businesses
    2016
Autonomous-related Acquisitions by Tier 1 suppliers
    2016
    2015
Subsystem Manufacturer Activity
    2016
    2015
Level 4 Systems in use
    2016

Chapter 5: The Transition to a New Transportation Sector

Introduction
Diffusion of AV Technology
The Diffusion Model
Diffusion Constraints
Will Potential AV Technology Benefits Appear?
Safety
Productivity
Vehicle Pricing
Convenience
Price Elasticity of Demand
How Will/Could Purchase, Ownership & Maintenance Models Change?
Potential Ownership Models
Outright Ownership
Shared Ownership
On Demand
Maintenance, Regulation & Safety
Who Will Make Money from AVs?
Traditional Competition & Branding
The Fight for Intellectual Property
Conclusion

References

Table of figures

Figure 1.1: “Ford CEO Mark Fields says his company is ‘completely rethinking how we approach the business’. Do you think autonomous cars will be a significant driver of change for your business?”
Figure 1.2: When do you expect driving autonomy to become reality for vehicles on the road?
Figure 1.3: The relative attractiveness of vehicles in Germany
Figure 1.4: The relative attractiveness of vehicles in China
Figure 1.5: Relative Urban Mobility of World Cities
Figure 1.6: % Changes in Energy Consumption due to Vehicle Automation
Figure 1.7: Consumer demand for safety features in their next vehicle
Figure 1.8: The Full Impact of Motor Vehicle Crashes
Figure 1.9: ADAS Sensors
Figure 1.10: Technical Challenges for AVs

Figure 2.1: The Chevrolet Tahoe “BOSS” used in DARPA Grand Challenge 200
Figure 2.2: Miles driven by Google self-driving car (October 2016)
Figure 2.3: Functional Architecture of an Autonomous Vehicle
Figure 2.4: Functional building blocks of autonomous vehicles
Figure 2.5: Uber’s self-driving prototype “Ford Fusion”
Figure 2.6: A reconstructed image from a stereo-vision camera of Mercedes S-class prototype
Figure 2.7: Magna’s autonomous driving prototype (Cadillac ATS)
Figure 2.8: Evolution of radar technology
Figure 2.9: VLP-16 “Puck” LiDAR sensor
Figure 2.10: Comparison of different perceptive systems by Dr. Karsten Funk
Figure 2.11: A reconstructed image of Google driverless prototype navigation a construction zone
Figure 2.12: Relation between sensor fusion and programming complexity
Figure 2.13: Potential conflict scenarios in ACC systems
Figure 2.14: An example of incorrect perception by mono-vision camera
Figure 2.15: Vehicle Control Architecture
Figure 2.16: Projection of attachment rate of AI-based systems for automotive industry (2015–25)
Figure 2.17: Pedestrian detection system using deep learning
Figure 2.18: Scania’s hill descent/ascent control system using real-time GPS data (Active Prediction)
Figure 2.19: A reconstructed image showing probe-data being collected by the front camera
Figure 2.20: V2X Extends a Vehicle’s Horizon
Figure 2.21: MK5 on-board DSRC unit for V2X communications
Figure 2.22: MK5 Road Side Unit
Figure 2.23: A man dozing while the Tesla Autopilot system is engaged
Figure 2.24: Nielsen Report “What’s Driving Tomorrow’s Drivers?”
Figure 2.25: Brown’s Tesla Model S after colliding with 18-wheel truck
Figure 2.26: Bird’s eye of Tesla Model S road crash of May
Figure 2.27: Sensors on Tesla Model S for Autopilot system
Figure 2.28: Types of Situational Awareness – Autelligence based on Jaguar Land Rover information.
Figure 2.29: Synergies of car HMI and levels of vehicle automation (2014)
Figure 2.30: Emotion analysis using in-vehicle facial recognition
Figure 2.31: Augmented Reality from Hyundai

Figure 3.1: European Commission funded projects supporting the development of automated driving 2005–201
Figure 3.2: Online traffic information in the US
Figure 3.3: Mobile-Edge Computing
Figure 3.4: French AV Roadmap
Figure 3.5: Dutch exemption processes
Figure 3.6: EcoTwin Project
Figure 3.7: WEpod
Figure 3.8: Drive Me project road sections
Figure 3.9: The Aurora Test site in Finnish Lapland.
Figure 3.10: Next Future Transportation Modules
Figure 3.11: Michigan autonomous vehicle facility
Figure 3.12: Autonomous driving consumer survey 2015
Figure 3.13: Japanese Government AV Roadmap
Figure 3.14: Australian AV Timeline
Figure 3.15: Volvo driverless cars trials in South Australia

Figure 4.1: Competitive Differentiators/Brand Equity Values under Threat
Figure 4.2: Waymo, Commercialising Google’s Self-driving Car

Table of tables

Table 1.1: 15 major cities by largest difference in vehicle ownership rate, developed countries, percent of households with passenger car, 201
Table 3.1: Europe Legislation and Policy Initiatives
Table 3.2: Europe Trials for Self-driving cars
Table 3.3: North America Legislation and Policy Initiatives
Table 3.4: North America Trials for Self-driving cars
Table 3.5: Asia Legislation and Policy Initiatives
Table 3.6: Asia Trials for Self-driving Cars

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