Wireless Network Data Traffic in Emerging Asia–Pacific: Trends and Forecasts 2016–2021

  • ID: 4196174
  • Report
  • Region: Asia Pacific
  • 35 pages
  • Analysys Mason Group
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Rapid 4G adoption in China and India will drive cellular data growth not only in emerging Asia–Pacific, but also worldwide

Growth rates of cellular data traffic are generally high in emerging Asia–Pacific (EMAP), but there are still significant differences between countries. This report examines why some EMAP markets have particularly high growth compared to others.

This report provides:

  • 5-year forecasts of wireless data traffic for EMAP as a whole, and for selected countries
  • worldwide context and specific country commentary for six key countries: China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand
  • analysis of the key trends in, and drivers and inhibitors of, data traffic
  • a discussion of the enablers of future capacity on wireless networks and the cost of supplying that capacity
  • analysis of the trends in private and public usage, and their effect on the use of mobile and Wi-Fi connectivity.
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 Executive summary
 Worldwide trends
 Worldwide: The rate of growth for cellular data traffic will slow considerably during the forecast period
 Worldwide: Rapid 4G adoption in India and China is driving cellular data traffic growth
 Worldwide: Even in 2021 there will still be some correlation between income levels and monthly handset usage
 Worldwide: Dongle and router traffic is not set to account for a large proportion of traffic across most emerging markets
 Worldwide: Public Wi-Fi traffic's share of total out-of-home traffic is declining in developed markets
 Worldwide: There continues to be little correlation between cellular data traffic growth and operator revenue
 Worldwide: Removing unlimited throttled speed prepaid data quotas con significantly reduce traffic, but its commercial impact has been mixed
 Worldwide: Offering unlimited throttled speed video traffic need not increase video traffic and could be a significant differentiator
 Regional trends
 Emerging Asia-Pacific: Growth rates have been highest in China, India and Indonesia
 Emerging Asia-Pacific: The region will continue to lead in global cellular data traffic growth rates in 2017
 Country-level trends
 China: Widespread 4G coverage and OTT service bundling will drive mobile traffic growth
 India: Reliance Jio's LTE-only market entry in 2016 has boosted 4G connections and data usage
 Indonesia: Bonus 4G data quotas are boosting traffic in the short term, but MNOs will move away from this approach
 Malaysia: New entrants will further intensity competition prompting responses from existing players
 Philippines: Cellular traffic from dongles and routers will continue to account for a large percentage of total traffic
 Thailand: Expansion of 4G networks and higher smartphone penetration will drive traffic growth
 Forecast methodology and assumptions
 Definition of geographical regions [1]
 Definition of geographical regions [2]
 Forecast methodology and assumptions
 About the authors

List of figures
Figure 1: Cellular data traffic by market and 4G device share, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2014-2021
Figure 2: Cellular data traffic by region, 2014-2021
Figure 3: Share of traffic over 2G/3G and 4G and higher devices, worldwide, emerging and developed economies, 2014-2021
Figure 4: Cellular data traffic, worldwide, developed economies and emerging economies, 2014-2021, Analysys Mason 2015 and 2016 forecast
Figure 5: Monthly data traffic per handset against GDP per capita, 2021, selected countries worldwide
Figure 6: Dongle and router share of total cellular data traffic, selected countries 2016 and 2021
Figure 7: South Korea's public Wi-Fi traffic carried through operators' networks, year-on-year growth, 1Q 2014-3Q 2016
Figure 8: Year-on-year mobile data traffic growth, overall retail revenue growth and data revenue growth, worldwide, 2014-2016
Figure 9: Year-on-year mobile data revenue and cellular data traffic by developed market region, 2015 and 2016
Figure 10: Telefonica Brasil data traffic and net mobile service revenue year-on-year growth, 1Q 2014-4Q 2015
Figure 11: Ratio of data consumption by video resolution format (144p=1)
Figure 12: Annual rate growth, cellular data traffic, selected emerging Asia-Pacific markets, 2014-2017
Figure 13: Cellular data traffic per head of population per month, selected emerging Asia-Pacific markets, 2015 and 2016
Figure 14: Cellular data traffic by market and 4G device share, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2014-2021
Figure 15: Cellular data traffic by device type, China, 2016-2021
Figure 16: Cellular data traffic by device type, India, 2016-2021
Figure 17: Cellular data traffic by device type, Indonesia, 2016-2021
Figure 18: Cellular data traffic by device type, Malaysia, 2016-2021
Figure 19: Cellular data traffic by device type, Philippines, 2016-2021
Figure 20: Cellular data traffic by device type, Thailand, 2016-2021
Figure 21a: Regional breakdown used in this report
Figure 21b: Regional breakdown used in this report

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