Wireless Network Data Traffic in Developed Asia–Pacific: Trends and Forecasts 2016–2021

  • ID: 4196295
  • Report
  • Region: Asia Pacific
  • 33 pages
  • Analysys Mason Group
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Developed Asia–Pacific: Annual growth rates per 4G smartphone are already quite low in the region

"Some of the most advanced telecoms markets in the world are in developed Asia-Pacific and traffic trends there can indicate future trends in other regions."

Growth rates of cellular data traffic will decline over the next few years in developed Asia-Pacific (DVAP). This report examines the extent of this trend and the different drivers and inhibitors of growth in DVAP, focusing individually on Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan.

This report provides:

  • 5-year forecasts of wireless data traffic for DVAP as a whole, and for selected countries
  • worldwide context and specific country commentary for four key countries: Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan
  • analysis of the key trends in, and drivers and inhibitors of, data traffic
  • a discussion of the enablers of future capacity on wireless networks and the cost of supplying that capacity
  • analysis of the trends in private and public usage, and their effect on the use of mobile and Wi-Fi connectivity.
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Executive summary
Worldwide trends
Worldwide: The rate of growth for cellular data traffic will slow considerably during the forecast period
Worldwide: Rapid 4G adoption in India and China is driving cellular data traffic growth
Worldwide: Even in 2021 there will still be some correlation between income levels and monthly handset usage
Worldwide: Dongle and router traffic is not set to account for a large proportion of traffic across most emerging markets
Worldwide: Public Wi-Fi traffic's share of total out-of-home traffic is declining in developed markets
Worldwide: There continues to be little correlation between cellular data traffic growth and operator revenue
Worldwide: Removing unlimited throttled speed prepaid data quotas can significantly reduce traffic, but its commercial impact has been mixed
Worldwide: Offering unlimited throttled speed video traffic need not increase video traffic and could be a significant differentiator
Regional trends
Developed Asia-Pacific: Markets in the DVAP region do not all share the same characteristics
Developed Asia-Pacific: Annual growth rates per 4G smartphone are already quite low in the region
Country-level trends
Hong Kong: Operators are focusing on mobile data profitability and using public Wi-Fi to offload cellular traffic
Japan: Technology upgrades and competition will drive data traffic growth during the forecast period
South Korea: Supply-side conditions favour data traffic growth, but MNOs will struggle to monetise traffic increases
Taiwan: Operators continue to offer unlimited data plans, due to intense market competition
Forecast methodology and assumptions
Definition of geographical regions [1]
Definition of geographical regions [2]
Forecast methodology and assumptions
About the authors

List of figures
Figure 1: Cellular data traffic by market and 4G device share, developed Asia-Pacific, 2014-2021
Figure 2: Cellular data traffic by region, 2014-2021
Figure 3: Share of traffic over 2G/3G and 4G and higher devices, worldwide, emerging and developed economies, 2014-2021
Figure 4: Cellular data traffic, worldwide, developed economies and emerging economies, 2014-2021, Analysys Mason 2015 and 2016 forecasts
Figure 5: Monthly data traffic per handset against GDP per capita, 2021, selected countries worldwide
Figure 6: Dongle and router share of total cellular data traffic, selected countries, 2016 and 2021
Figure 7: South Korea's public Wi-Fi traffic carried through operators' networks, year-on-year growth, 1Q 2014-3Q 2016
Figure 8: Year-on-year mobile data traffic growth, overall retail revenue growth and data revenue growth, worldwide, 2014-2016
Figure 9: Year-on-year mobile data revenue and cellular data traffic by developed market region, 2015 and 2016
Figure 10: Telefonica Brasil data traffic and net mobile service revenue year-on-year growth, 1Q 2014-4Q 2015
Figure 11: Ratio of data consumption by video resolution format (144p = 1)
Figure 12: Annual rate of growth, cellular data traffic, selected developed Asia-Pacific markets, 2014-2017
Figure 13: Cellular data traffic per head of population per month, selected developed Asia-Pacific markets, 2015 and 2016
Figure 14: Cellular data traffic by market and 4G device share, developed Asia-Pacific, 2014-2021
Figure 15: Cellular data traffic by device type, Hong Kong, 2016-2021
Figure 16: Cellular data traffic by device type, Japan, 2016-2021
Figure 17: Cellular data traffic by device type, South Korea 2016-2021
Figure 18: Cellular data traffic by device type, Taiwan, 2016-2021
Figure 19a: Regional breakdown used in this report
Figure 19b: Regional breakdown used in this report

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  • Hong Kong
  • Japan
  • South Korea
  • Taiwan
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