For this to happen the US$800bn food sector finally needs to be cracked by Amazon and our latest report lays out how this will happen.
The shake up will be radical and leave many failed b&m retailers in its wake.
The strategy is to meet every distinct shopper need and mission with a dedicated Amazon business unit (from pantry to .com to dash, echo to subscribe & save to prime Now to Fresh).
Fresh is the jewel in the crown, with self selecting prime membership skewing to the premium end, the most valuable shopper to have.
FMCG and other retailers should remember that Amazon will leverage its platform and marketplace model and that the threat will not only come from 1P, but from the multitude of artisanal players (butchers, bakers etc) Amazon will recruit to its ecosystem.
Amazon knows their shoppers already - from their past purchases and their digital footprint and they know shoppers much, much better than the competition. For Amazon it is now simply a matter of upselling.
What can the rest of the industry do now?
Amazon Fresh: the background, why the move into grocery?
Amazon: different business models, .com (1P and 3P), Pantry, Fresh, dash, Prime Now
Amazon: different business models, the fresh business
Amazon Fresh: logistics, .com integration, cooking videos
Data: The online grocery market in $bn 2014-2017
Data: Amazon grocery sales in $bn, Fresh sales in $bn, 2016
Data: Data, key customer statistics, uplifts, basket sizes, the reasons behind Fresh
USA: Amazon Prime Now partnership with Sprouts
USA: Amazon Fresh - price drop, monthly plan
USA: Amazon Fresh - price drop, monthly plan, analysis
USA: Fresh In Chicago, Dallas and South Florida
UK: Amazon Fresh and Morrisons - a transformational deal
UK: Amazon Fresh and Morrisons - leveraging manufacturing, vertical integration
UK:Amazon Fresh and Morrisons - what’s in it for Britain’s number 4
UK: Amazon Fresh and Morrisons - four key implications
UK: Amazon Fresh and Morrisons - scaling the range and prime benefits
UK: Amazon Fresh - local & regional foods, tweaking the offer
UK: Amazon Fresh London - local food a real USP, decline of Hubbub
UK: Morrisons Prime Now link up UK: Fresh expansion
Data: Amazon, Tesco, Sainsbury, Asda, Ocado, Waitrose, Morrisons pricing data 2017
Fresh: Amazon Fresh leading the sector on price, February 2017
Fresh: Amazon Fresh and the sector - price comparisons, June 2016
Germany: the use cases for imminent online grocery deliveries
Germany: The importance of the 3P marketplace for Amazon Fresh
Germany: Amazon Fresh starting date revealed
Germany: Amazon Fresh logistics set up in Germany, all 3PLs?
Germany: Amazon Fresh, dual use warehouse in Munich
Germany: Amazon Fresh, starting date set in Berlin for April 2017
Germany: Amazon recruiting Migros and Tegut as 3P supplier partners
Germany: the big bang announcement, DHL will provide logistics services
Data: Fresh and Prime Now sales forecasts for Germany in €m, 2016/7-2020
Grocery Private Label
Private label grocery: the introduction
Private label grocery: will Elements become a premium line?
Private label grocery: prime only? Stronger negotiation position vs. FMCGs
Private label grocery: launch of prime exclusive, global roll-out?
Private label grocery: starting to take market share, data
Private label grocery: Presto!, the risks of manufacturing
Private label grocery: Wickedly prime is launched
Private label grocery: Elements vitamins and supplements
Private label grocery: operating in a supplement market rife with fraud
Physical, bricks & mortar, Grocery Stores
Stores: Analysis - introduction, three prototypes
Stores: Analysis - the issues of food spoilage
Stores: Analysis - long term strategy, B2B and a hybrid store?
Stores: Analysis - stores offer new possibilities for regional and localised ranges
The drive thru stores
Drive thru: Project X, August 2016 and first plans are surfacing
Drive thru: Project X - the Seattle catchment, operations
Drive thru: Project X - new technologies
Drive thru: Project X - March 2017 opening
The Amazon Go store
Amazon Go: getting rid of queues
Amazon Go: selling the technology on to other retailers?
Amazon Go: could become a game changer when labor costs are increasing
Amazon Go: how the sensor fusion technology works - the patents
Amazon Go: how the sensor fusion technology works II
Amazon Go: nine points to take into consideration
Amazon Go: nine details to consider when judging Amazon Go
Amazon Go: coming to the UK?
Amazon Go: teething problems, only works with 20 shoppers in store so far
The convenience stores
Project Como: the third prototype, drawing inspiration from Aldi and Lidl
Project Como: 2,000 Amazon Fresh grocery stores in the US over the next decade?
Project Como: 20-store pilot program for now, could it work?
Project Como: Amazon Fresh program on track, no updates on stores
Project Como: Amazon denies 2,000 store target categorically
Project Como: only three human workers per store? NY Post story
Project Como: the NY post non story? Robots on rooftops? Bezos denial
Restaurants & Foodservice
Restaurants: restaurant deliveries in Seattle, a Spotlight update
Restaurants: Amazon daily dish
Restaurants: Amazon taking on and copying Peach
Restaurants: Blue Apron-like recipe delivery service started in Q3 2016
Restaurants: eyeing the UK market, starting a delivery service, Amazon Restaurants
Restaurants: Martha Stewart & Marley spoon debut on Amazon Fresh
Restaurants: How Amazon Fresh organises the logistics for the restaurant service
Recommendations for FMCG: the fall out from Amazon Fresh
Recommendations: FMCG partners, what to consider, Pantry vs. Fresh vs. .com
Recommendations: model out profitability for the next ten years on line by line basis
Recommendations: Omnichannel players, launching a 3P operation
Outlook: the Amazon Fresh opportunity going forward
Chart 1: USA data: The online grocery market in $bn, 2014-2017
Chart 2: Fresh: Data, key customer statistics, uplifts, basket sizes, the reasons behind Fresh
Table 1: Amazon, Tesco, Sainsbury, Asda, Ocado, Waitrose, Morrisons pricing data UK, Feb 2017
Table 2: Data: Amazon Fresh sales forecasts for Germany in €m, 2017-2020
Table 3: Data: Prime Now sales forecasts for Germany in €m, 2016-2020