Technical trends and developments in the five major powertrain areas. Analysis, discussion of recent events and developments and assessment of their likely impact.
Attention has recently been focused on self-driving vehicles and full electrification as major disruptors for the auto sector in the next decade.
But for the next several years the industry is likely to be dominated by radical changes occurring WITHIN the internal combustion (IC)-engined automotive model, as new engine management and optimization technologies and partial electrification address changes demanded by regulators and markets, such as achieving carbon emission reductions and fuel economy gains despite the sidelining of diesels.
“Powertrain to 2025: Trends and Risks” examines the impact of these developments on the five major elements of the future powertrain:
- IC engines
- Control Systems
- Electric Motors
The report looks at technical trends and developments in each of these areas, and projects how those they might develop through to 2025 and 2030.
The report takes a unique approach to assessing the central track of the industry’s technological roadmap – and then discusses the threats and challenges to that projection as way of analyzing the risks and opportunities that will dominate the next decade.
In other words it establishes the consensus view, and then challenges it by identifying key uncertainties and potential disruptors.
Each chapter summarizes current developments for each of the technology areas, and then pulls them together into plausible, alternate scenarios to the central outlook to help planners “bookend” the best and worst cases.
The report builds on a series of in-depth studies of different powertrain technologies, as well as surveys of experts.
Who is the report for?
Chief Executive Officers, Marketing Directors, Business and Sales Development executives, Product and Project management, Purchasing and Technical Directors that need a powerful third party perspective and overview of the trends and issues in their sector and the potential ramifications for their business.
Author of this report: Bruce Morey
With over twenty five years of experience in technology development, research, and management, Bruce Morey brings a unique perspective to looking at the future of automotive engineering. Sixteen years in the defense industry exposed him to a number of forward-looking methodologies, including scenario and contingency planning. Six years in automotive product development at Ford Motor Company gave him an inside look at the day-to-day challenges and pressures of delivering quality vehicles and engines that customers want to buy, at an affordable price to both customer and company.
Mr Morey has published articles have covered computer simulation in support of engine development, future fuels, fuel cell vehicles, manufacturing, automotive engineering and product development. He is also the author of two books, Automotive 2030 North America and Future Automotive Fuels and Energy, both published by SAE International.
Mr. Morey earned both Bachelors and Masters degrees in mechanical engineering from the University of Michigan. Mr. Morey is a member of SAE International and the Society of Manufacturing Engineers.
What the industry is saying
“Gone are the days when a gasoline engine and a transmission designed independently would meet a customer’s expectations. Today’s customer is demanding unprecedented technology integration that requires unprecedented engineering and supplier partnerships.” Dan Nicholson, Vice President, GM Global Propulsion Systems
“With many automotive markets worldwide, e-mobility is still a niche market. However, this will quickly change when lawmakers introduce stricter international emissions limits in the coming years.” Jörg Grotendorst, Head of the ZF E-Mobility Division
“Electrification has to come to Europe to meet tougher emission standards and the diesel is going to pay the highest toll. This will cause huge challenges for automakers and suppliers because they will need to change their powertrain manufacturing infrastructure.” Stefano Aversa, deputy chairman, AlixPartners
Chapter 1: Introduction
1.1 Consumer attitudes count
1.2 Scenarios and developments – the Consensus View
1.3 The shape of technical disruptors and innovations
1.4 Key questions, uncertainties, and trends
Chapter 2: Overview of market drivers and regulatory requirements worldwide
2.1 Criteria and GHG emissions
2.2 Fuel economy
2.3 Test cycles – the day of reckoning
2.4 Fuel availability and affordability
2.5 Plug-in sales
2.6 Government incentives – its effect on automakers
Chapter 3: Gasoline engine developments for light duty vehicles
3.1 Better fuel economy, more soot
3.2 Technology map – a quilt, not a blanket
3.2.1 Potential disruptors and innovations
Chapter 4: Diesel engine developments for light duty vehicles
4.1 Technology – strengths and weaknesses
4.2 Growth constrained by high diesel fuel prices and demand
Chapter 5: Electric battery storage
5.1 Background and batteries – development progresses
5.2 Economics and price – is $100/kWh valid?
5.3 Battery progress and projections
5.4 Battery suppliers
5.5 Potential disruptors and innovations in energy batteries
5.6 Charging a battery
Chapter 6: New business models and user acceptance of electric vehicles
6.1 Mobility as a service
6.2 Personal BEVs, fun tempered by range
6.3 Synthetic fuels
Chapter 7: Trends and projections – a scenario approach
7.1 Common assumptions
7.2 Low Tech Scenario – less technology and electrification than the Consensus View
7.3 High Tech Scenario – accelerated development of high tech combustion and electrified technologies
Appendix A: Powertrain systems overview
A.1 Electrification of the powertrain
A.2 Technology and architectures
Appendix B: Transmissions for light duty vehicles
B.1 Types of transmissions – terms of reference
Appendix C: Electric drive system developments for light duty vehicles
C.1 Electric motors
C.2 Power electronics
C.3 Integrated units
C.4 48V hybrid developments
Appendix D December 2016 Quarterly Research Update:
Likely impact of the Trump election
Potential revisions of the 2025 US CAFE standards
New analysis of likely developments in battery costs
Appendix E April 2017 Quarterly Research Update:
The US 2022 – 2025 CAFÉ Standards: Finalized and then – again – up for review
EV Sales up worldwide as conservative politics in US dampens incentives
Black Swan Alert – the Opposed Piston Engine
2017 Future of Powertrain Survey
Hitachi Automotive Systems
Table of figures
Figure 1.1: In a survey conducted by Morpace, the conventional ICE engine remains consumers’ number one choice, followed closely by hybrids and GTDI as second and third
Figure 1.2: Data presenting Continental’s Powertrain Outlook for Global private and light vehicle engine production through 2024, referred to in this report as the Consensus View
Figure 2.1: The need to harmonize conflicting demands on automakers is the challenge today
Figure 2.2: Summary of regulations, timing of important worldwide criteria, and GHG emissions regulations
Figure 2.3: Vehicle criteria emissions standards worldwide tend to follow various versions of either European Union or North American/United States regulations. This chart shows worldwide the known conformance roughly to EU standards.
Figure 2.4: Why Chinese regulations matter – the Chinese market is now the largest in the world and expected to stay that way
Figure 2.5: A concise view of the fuel economy challenges as stated in 2014 by Fiat Chrysler Automobiles
Figure 2.6: Uncertainty remains in future fuel economy/CO2 regulations in the US, because of the “midterm evaluation”, where regulators and automakers will map out future feasibility
Figure 2.7: Cars are tested using fixed dynamometers on specific schedules on rolling, or chassis, dynamometers. Their emissions are measured over the cycles.
Figure 2.8: An example of a test cycle conducted on a chassis dyno, this is the proposed worldwide, harmonized test cycle as of 2013
Figure 2.9: Portable emissions measurement systems will be a key element in RDE test
Figure 2.10: The US Energy Information Agency (EIA) projects gasoline prices in North America to remain well below $4/gal through 2025 in its 2015 Annual Energy Outlook in the Low Oil Price Scenario
Figure 2.11: Sales of HEV vehicles sold and marketed in the USA as HEVs wax and wane, in concert with inflation adjusted fuel prices among other factors
Figure 2.12: The Innovation Diffusion curve is well accepted approach to understanding the demographics of potential users
Figure 2.13: Fifteen years after introduction, HEVs have not broken out of the demographic group that are willing to try anything
Figure 2.14: Worldwide sales of EVs and PHEVs increased through 2015, led by China and Western Europe
Figure 3.1: Efficient turbocharged gasoline direct engines, GTDI, make engines more efficient over a wider range of loads and speeds, improving fuel economy
Figure 3.2: Note the vast differences in take rates for various engine technologies by region predicted by IHS Automotive by 2020
Figure 3.3: Ricardo advocates incremental costs towards achieving needed improvements in fuel economy
Figure 3.4: Steady improvements in fuel consumption per unit of horsepower is shown
Figure 4.1: ExxonMobil projects that commercial transport will drive future fuel demand, driving up a demand for diesel
Figure 5.1: This illustration shows the inner workings of a lithium-ion battery
Figure 5.2: Notional diagram of battery operation for the three recognised modes of electrified powertrains, illustrating why batteries are oversized
Figure 5.3: Specification for commercialising a suitable battery for an electric vehicle
Figure 5.4: Using basic assumptions, $100/kWh provides cost parity to a fuel efficient passenger car in North America
Figure 5.5: Using the same cost model using average electricity prices in Germany and $250/kWhr seems a reasonable cost for battery storage to achieve price parity with gasoline passenger cars
Figure 5.6: Current status of energy batteries against end-of-life goals as evaluated by USABC and USCAR in December, 2015
Figure 5.7: One research group, Lux Research, predicts battery prices falling into the $200/kWhr range by 2025
Figure 5.8: General Motors revealed its cost per kWh for cells and their projected glide path to 2022
Figure 5.9: Motivation for pursuing advanced electric batteries – the potential to rival gasoline energy density
Figure 5.10: According to Bloomberg, automotive traction battery costs could potentially bottom out at $100/kWh by 2025 through 2030
Figure 6.1: With an appropriately sized battery for a range of 150 miles, a BEV costs less to operate than a comparable ICE powered car
Figure 6.2: Data compiled by General Motors indicates that greater than 70% of potential EV buyers would be satisfied with a BEV that had a range greater than 200 miles on a single charge
Figure 7.1: Continental’s vision of a light duty market dominated by conventional powertrains by 2025 is commonly held in the industry, within certain parameters (reformatted), in millions of units worldwide
Figure 7.2: A variant chart from the Consensus View of light duty powertrains based on a scenario with drivers that favor lower technology powertrains, in millions of units worldwide
Figure 7.3: An aggressively optimistic projection of electrified and high technology light duty powertrain distributions as a variant on the Consensus Model, in millions of units worldwide.
Figure A.1: Conventional powertrain systems have a single source of energy and torque, generated from an internal combustion engine transferred via the crankshaft
Figure A.2: According to BCG, improvements to powertrain – especially engines – outweighs all other potential conventional improvements automakers could make
Figure A.3: Generalised torque/speed curve. All ICEs, particularly gasoline, exhibit BSFC maps like this with worse efficiency under low, or part load.
Figure A.4: MY 2014 vehicle production that meets future US CAFE CO2 emissions targets, from 2016 to the proposed 2025 targets, according to data from the US EPA
Figure A.5: An example of some of the most common architecture models for “full” HEV systems
Figure A.6: This chart from Continental is good way to view the various options of electrification, from simple start-stop to a full electric vehicle, in terms of fuel economy at the point of use
Figure A.7: Comparison of idealised torque curve for an electric motor and an ICE engine, showing how they complement each other
Figure A.8: The decision landscape between electrification and conventional improvements to meet future fuel economy and CO2 regulations
Figure B.1: Global transmission sales (millions) projected to 2020
Figure B.2: The differences in the number of speeds in an automatic planetary gear transmission means the engine will operate more frequently at its most fuel efficient load/speed point
Figure C.1: The basic electric drive traction system, here shown as part of a hybrid electric system
Figure C.2: GKN Automotive showcased its new eTwinsterR torque-vectoring electric drive system for hybrid vehicles
Figure C.3: ZF’s electric drive system positioned centrally on the axle is also available as a unit fully integrated into a new modular rear axle concept
Figure C.4: Some in the industry are using the term ‘P4 Hybrid’ to describe the electrified axle configuration
Figure C.5: Continental predicts that saving fuel increases with each level of integration. Energy management can make more comprehensive use of an ICE and electrical energy
Table of tables
Table 2.1: Forecasts of key market driver questions summarized with probabilities assigned
Table 3.1: Forecasts of key engine technology questions summarised with probabilities assigned
Table 4.1: Forecasts of key engine technology questions summarized with probabilities assigned
Table 5.1: Approximate recharging times per SAE for PEVs and BEVs
Table 5.2: Forecasts of key battery electric storage questions summarised with probabilities assigned
Table 6.1: Summary of potential disruptors
Table C.1: Essential elements of electric traction drive systems
Table C.2: Essential elements of electric traction drive systems with “stretch”