This report gives a quarterly overview of the NAND flash market. It includes market share, competitive analysis, advice to vendors, customers, toolmakers, and investors, and forecasts the market’s future revenues.
Through a unique and very accurate forecast methodology, the author predicts a revenue peak of nearly $50 billion in NAND flash revenues in 2017, before a market collapse that will reduce 2018 revenues to less than half of that figure. This cycle will be driven by a shortage followed by an oversupply as chip makers first struggle with 3D NAND production, then reach a breakthrough that will result in an overcapacity.
To create this report the author performs a quarterly analysis of NAND flash makers’ reported results and combines these with other market indicators and historical pricing patterns.
- All NAND flash makers are shipping 3D NAND as of the third quarter.
- Third-quarter NAND flash revenues reached $9 billion, up 11% from the prior quarter.
- Samsung maintains leadership in the NAND flash market with a 36% market share.
- NAND flash market revenues will reach $49.8 billion in 2017 before dropping to $21.2 billion in 2018. This drop will be the result of a price collapse caused by a 3D NAND-driven oversupply.
- Low growth in prior years stemmed from poor demand growth thanks to China’s currency devaluation and troubled oil economies.
1. Executive Summary
4. Competitive Landscape
- Western Digital/SanDisk
- SK hynix
- Micron Technology
5. Market Share
6. Projections & Forecast Assumptions
7. Forecast Rationale
8. Historic Perspectives