South African Electricity Market - 2016 Snapshot

  • ID: 4265850
  • Report
  • Region: Africa, South Africa
  • 87 Pages
  • Frost & Sullivan
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Changing Economy and Expanding Renewable Energy Set to Alter Future of the Electricity Supply Industry

The electricity sector in South Africa has witnessed dynamic changes over the past few years. Sharp increases in electricity tariffs have been a prominent feature of the electricity supply industry in South Africa. Declining global commodity prices and increasing electricity prices have had a detrimental impact on the mining and manufacturing industry, which have experienced sluggish growth. The economy of South Africa is witnessing a gradual change with increased contribution from the services sector. As such, the demand for electricity has reduced. Decreasing costs of renewable energy technologies, regulatory reforms, market restructuring, coupled with the risks and delays associated with base-load coal and nuclear power will largely determine the future of the electricity sector in South Africa.

Key Questions this Study will Answer:

  • What are the key macro-economic indicators and economic outlook for South Africa?
  • What is the structure of the Electricity Supply Industry (ESI) in South Africa and its key stakeholders?
  • What is the current status of power generation and proposed future generation mix for the country?
  • How has the electricity and peak demand developed in the past and what is the expected future growth?
  • What is the status of electricity transmission and distribution in South Africa?
  • What factors (drivers and restraints) could prove decisive in the development of the electricity sector in future?
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1. Executive Summary
Key Findings

2. Introduction
Key Questions this Study will Answer
Scope of Study

3. South Africa-Introduction
South Africa-Country Overview
Economic Outlook
GDP Contribution by Sector

4. Regulatory Framework and Organisations
Electricity Supply Industry-Market Structure
Sector Overview
Key Organisations

5. Electricity Generation
Current Installed Capacity-Technology and Ownership
Current Installed Capacity-Fuel Type and Owner
Evolution of Installed Capacity
Electricity Generation
Introduction to REIPPPP
REIPP Procurement Programme
REIPPPP-Procured and Operational Capacity
REIPPPP-Technology-wise Capacity Allocation per Bid Window
Current Installed Capacity Under REIPPP (Feb 2016)
Declining Prices of RE Power Projects per BW
Comparison of Power Generation Technologies Based on Unit Cost of Energy
Concerns Surrounding REIPPP and Future Build
Future Generation Mix as per IRP
Future Generation Plan for TDP 2016-2025
IRP 2016 in Numbers (New Build Options 2021-2050)
IRP 2016 Update-Analysis

6. Electricity Transmission
Existing Transmission Infrastructure
Transmission Development Plan-Major Planned Projects
Future Transmission Assets

7. Electricity Distribution and Supply
Distribution Responsibilities (Eskom and Municipalities)
Electricity Sales and Peak Demand Trends
Electricity Sales per Customer Category

8. Peak Demand and Energy Projections
IRP Projections 2010 and Update Base Case 2013
IRP Projections 2010 and 2013 Update (Anticipated Energy Consumption)
IRP Projections and Actual Situation
Understanding Various IRP Scenarios
CSIR Forecasts Using Sectoral Regression Model-Basis for IRP 2016 Base Case
Need for Annual IRP Updates

9. Electricity Tariffs
Eskom Tariff and Inflation
Evolution of Electricity Tariffs (Eskom Tariffs as per Consumer ategory)
Evolution of Electricity Tariffs

10. Drivers and Restraints
Drivers
Drivers Explained
Restraints
Restraints Explained

11. Growth Opportunities and Companies to Action
Growth Opportunity 1-Power Generation
Strategic Imperatives for Success and Growth

12. The Last Word
The 3 Big Predictions
Legal Disclaimer

14. Appendix
Acronyms
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