Polysilicon Market Outlook 2020

  • ID: 4310757
  • Report
  • Region: Global
  • 70 Pages
  • Bernreuter Research
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After the Polysilicon Industry Recovered From Oversupply In 2013, its Global Output Sharply Increased from 228,000 Metric Tons (MT) in 2013 by 37% to 313,000 MT in 2014 and by Another 16% to 363,000 MT in 2015

FEATURED COMPANIES

  • Arabian Peninsula:
  • Hankook Silicon
  • Japan:
  • OCI Company
  • Silicor Materials
  • USA:
  • MORE

Do you want to be up to date on the polysilicon industry? On the most recent technological developments, the decisive market trends and future price points? The Polysilicon Market Outlook 2020 provides you with all of that. The 70-page report analyzes hundreds of data and details, presents them in a clear and compact form, and draws insightful conclusions to help you make the best strategic decisions.

  • The technology chapter analyzes why fluidized bed reactor (FBR) technology for producing polysilicon granules has recently experienced some setbacks. It explores fundamental technical challenges and an alternative approach.
  • The capacity chapter provides a concise overview of plant shutdowns, capacity expansions and greenfield projects. A comprehensive table lists all capacity additions and changes between 2014 and 2019.
  • The supply chapter presents four different scenarios of production volumes and end-of-year capacities for 45 polysilicon and UMG silicon plants and projects from 2013 through 2020. It highlights the market shares of the top ten manufacturers, points out China’s growing weight among the world’s polysilicon production regions, and reveals first signs of industry consolidation. The chapter also details the production volumes of electronic-grade polysilicon for each manufacturer and explains purity specifications for electronic grade.
  • The demand chapter quantifies the polysilicon demand of the semiconductor and photovoltaic (PV) industries from 2013 through 2020. It uses an improved bottom-up approach, based on numerous forecasts for 84 countries, in order to arrive at three different scenarios of global PV demand. The 20 most important countries and regions have been surveyed individually.
  • The balance chapter compares the various demand scenarios with supply, explains consequences from the supply/demand balance for market participants, and discusses changes in the cyclical pattern of the polysilicon industry. In addition, the chapter gives an outlook on the market development through 2022.
  • The duty chapter provides background on the anti-dumping measures of the Chinese Ministry of Commerce and uses data from customs statistics to assess the effect of Chinese anti-dumping duties on polysilicon imports.
  • The price chapter examines the factors that have influenced the polysilicon spot price since 2014 and, in particular, dissects the reasons behind the price rally in the spring of 2016. Based on an analysis of industry cost curves, the chapter forecasts the development of the spot price through 2020. It also provides data on cash production costs of 34 polysilicon plants from 2015 through 2020.
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FEATURED COMPANIES

  • Arabian Peninsula:
  • Hankook Silicon
  • Japan:
  • OCI Company
  • Silicor Materials
  • USA:
  • MORE

Imprint
Executive Summary
List of Tables and Figures
Companies covered
Abbreviations, Chemical formulae, Silicon grades, Exchange rates

1. Technology: Fading of the FBR Hype

  • Why Sunedison’s FBR project has failed
  • GCL-Poly stuck at pilot stage
  • Fundamental problems and an alternative approach

2. Capacities: Oversupply Reloaded

  • China protects its polysilicon industry
  • Closed plants and canceled projects outside China
  • Hemlock Semiconductor’s rigorous strategy
  • Small revival of UMG silicon technology

3. Supply: Global Scenarios through 2020

  • China’s market share is rising strongly
  • Twelve potential shakeout candidates
  • First signs of consolidation
  • Supply and specifications of electronic-grade polysilicon

4. Demand: Market Perspectives through 2020
4.1 Demand from the semiconductor industry
4.2 Demand from the photovoltaic industry

  • Analysis of global PV installations 2003 - 2015
  • Meta-analysis of analyst forecasts
  • Extrapolation from the guidance of major module producers
  • Bottom-up approach: Installation scenarios 2016 - 2020
  • China
  • Japan
  • India
  • Asia-Pacific: Australia, South Korea, Thailand, The Philippines, Pakistan
  • USA
  • Canada
  • Latin America: Mexico, Chile, Brazil
  • Europe: United Kingdom, Germany, France, The Netherlands, Italy, Turkey
  • Middle East & Africa (MEA)
  • Plausibility test: Comparison with other PV installation scenarios
  • A wider perspective: Cross-comparison with three other industries
  • From installation to production volumes
  • Time lag between polysilicon and solar cell production
  • Sensitivity to specific silicon consumption

5. Balance: Supply and Demand through 2022

  • Supply Scenario 1 (unconfined)
  • Supply Scenarios 2, 3 and 4 (high, base and low case)
  • Cyclical pattern: Increasing volatility
  • Outlook through 2022: Little sunshine after the thunderstorm

6. Duties: Chinese Wall with Loopholes

  • Tit for tat rulings on punitive duties
  • The big loophole offered by processing trade
  • One loophole closed, others still open
  • US-made polysilicon effectively shut out of China

7. Prices: Valley’s Deep and the Peak Far Away

  • 2014: Short-lived price recovery
  • 2015: Overproduction sends the spot price south
  • First half of 2016: Reasons behind the spring rally
  • 2016 - 2020: Steadily falling price trend

8. Conclusion: Preparing for Soft Demand

Appendix: Directory of Company Web Sites
A. Manufacturers and aspirants
B. CVD reactor suppliers
C. Providers of reactor power supply systems
D. Hydrochlorination technology providers
E. Other technology providers/consultants
F. Engineering, procurement & construction firms

About the author

List of Tables and Figures
1. Technology: Fading of the FBR Hype
FBR market share projections of ITRPV and the author for 2015 - 2026
2. Capacities: Oversupply Reloaded
Global polysilicon capacity expansion 2014 - 2019
3. Supply: Global Scenarios through 2020
Classification of polysilicon manufacturer tiers
Silicon production by region (in MT) 2013 - 2020 (base case)
Scenario 1 (unconfined): Polysilicon production by company and tier (in MT) 2013 - 2020
Scenario 2 (high case): Polysilicon production by company and tier (in MT) 2013 - 2020
Scenario 3 (base case): Polysilicon production by company and tier (in MT) 2013 - 2020
Scenario 4 (low case): Polysilicon production by company and tier (in MT) 2013 - 2020
Top ten polysilicon manufacturers in 2015
Top ten polysilicon manufacturers in 2016
Top ten polysilicon manufacturers in 2017
Top ten polysilicon manufacturers in 2018
Top ten polysilicon manufacturers in 2019
Top ten polysilicon manufacturers in 2020
Potential candidates for shakeout/stranded investment
Market shares of the top ten and top four manufacturers 2015 - 2020
Company specifications and national standards for high-purity/electronic-grade polysilicon
Electronic-grade polysilicon production by company and tier (in MT) 2013 - 2020
4. Demand: Market perspectives through 2020
Polysilicon demand from the semiconductor industry
Market shares of growth drivers in global PV installations 2003 - 2015
PV installation volumes and global growth rates 2003 - 2015
Deviation of the analyst forecast average from actual results 2008 - 2015
Analyst forecasts for global PV installations in 2016
Guidance accuracy of nine major module manufacturers 2008 - 2015
Results and guidance of nine major module manufacturers in 2015/2016
Market share of nine major module manufacturers 2008 - 2015
Sensitivity analysis of guidance extrapolation for 2016
2013 scenario and result (in GW)
2014 scenario and result (in GW)
Annual wind power and PV installations in China (in GW)
Global PV installations in 2013 - 2015; base-case scenario for 2016 - 2020
Installation scenarios of IHS, GTM and the author for 2016 - 2020
Regional scenarios of GTM 2015, IHS and the author for 2020
Annual growth rates of the semiconductor and PV industries
Annual growth rates of the automobile and PV industries
Annual growth rates of the automobile industry after 1945
Development of annual wind power and PV system installations (in GW)
Global cryst.solar cell and thin-film module production volumes (in MW) 2004 - 2015
Ratio between global cell/module production and PV system installation volumes
Scenarios of crystalline silicon cell production volumes (in GW) 2016 - 2020
Polysilicon shipment periods (in weeks)
Breakdown of time lag between polysilicon and cell production (in weeks)
Specific silicon consumption of cell production (in g/W) 2012 - 2021
Share of first quarter in full year cell/module production/shipment volumes
Polysilicon consumption/demand of the PV industry (in 1,000 MT) 2013 - 2015
Scenarios of the PV industry’s polysilicon consumption/demand (in 1,000 MT) 2016 - 2020
Scenario variants of specific silicon consumption (in g/W) 2016 - 2021
Scenario variants of polysilicon demand (in 1,000 MT) 2016 - 2020
Details of the scenario for specific silicon consumption 2014 - 2021
5. Balance: Supply and Demand through 2022
Demand of the PV and semiconductor industries (in 1,000 MT) 2013 - 2015
Scenarios for the demand of the PV and semiconductor industries (in 1,000 MT) 2016 - 2020
Balance of silicon supply and demand (in 1,000 MT) 2010 - 2015
Unconfined silicon supply by tiers (Scenario 1) and demand scenarios 2013 - 2020
Scenarios of the supply/demand balance with unconfined supply (in 1,000 MT) 2016 - 2020
Market-clearing demand variants 2016 - 2020 (Supply Scenario 1)
PV installations in the base, high-case and market-clearing demand scenarios 2016 - 2020
Silicon supply by tiers (Scenario 3, base case) and demand 2013 - 2020
Scenarios of the silicon supply/demand balance (low, base and high case) 2016 - 2020
Intervals between contract price peaks and troughs 1977 - 2015
Preliminary scenario of supply/demand balance 2020 - 2022
6. Duties: Chinese Wall with Loopholes
Duty rates for imports from the USA, South Korea and the EU into China
Annual import volumes into China from main importers 2010 - 2015
Shares of processing trade and main importers in imports 2013 - Q2 2016
7. Prices: Valley’s Deep and the Peak Far Away
Expansion of Chinese wafer production capacities (in GW) in 2015 and 2016
Development of the polysilicon spot and contract prices in 2014
Development of the polysilicon spot and contract prices in 2015
Monthly polysilicon supply in China from January 2015 through May 2016
Development of the polysilicon spot prices in and outside China in 2016
Jiangsu Zhongneng’s external polysilicon shipments Q1 2014 - Q2 2016
Solar-grade polysilicon industry cost curves 2015 - 2017 (base-case scenario)
Solar-grade polysilicon industry cost curves 2018 - 2020 (base-case scenario)
Scenarios of the year-end polysilicon spot price (in $/kg) 2016 - 2020
Exchange rates for US$1 in 2013 and from January through October 2016
Cash costs of polysilicon manufacturers (in $/kg) 2015 - 2020 (base case)

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USA:

  • Hemlock Semiconductor
  • MEMC Pasadena
  • Mitsubishi Polysilicon America
  • REC Silicon
  • Wacker Polysilicon North America

Germany:

  • Silicon Products Bitterfeld
  • Sitec
  • Wacker Chemie

Japan:

  • M.Setek
  • Mitsubishi Materials
  • Osaka Titanium technologies
  • Tokuyama

South Korea:

  • Hankook Silicon
  • Hanwha Chemical
  • OCI Company
  • SMP

Ukraine:

  • Semiconductor Plant

Arabian Peninsula:

  • Polysilicon Technology Company
  • Qatar Solar Technologies

China:

  • Asia Silicon
  • Erdos Polysilicon
  • Guodian Jingyang
  • Hubei Jingxing
  • Inner Mongolia Dunan
  • Inner Mongolia Fengwei
  • Inner Mongolia Shenzhou
  • Jiangsu Xinhua Semiconductor (GCL)
  • Jiangsu Zhongneng (GCL)
  • Kunming Yeyan
  • LDK PV Silicon
  • Luoyang China Silicon
  • Qinghai Huanghe Hydropower
  • Shaanxi Non-ferrous Tianhong REC
  • Shaanxi Tianhong
  • Sichuan Renesola
  • Sichuan Yongxiang
  • Xinjiang Daqo
  • Xinjiang Dongming
  • Xinjiang Hejing
  • Xinte Energy (TBEA)
  • Yichang CSG
  • Zhejiang Zhongning

Taiwan:

  • Powertec Energy
  • Taiwan Polysilicon

UMG silicon manufacturers:

  • Elkem Solar
  • Ferroatlántica
  • Jaco Solarsi
  • Silicor Materials
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