A study of electricity theft and non-technical losses across 125 countries (58-pages + dataset).
South Asia, Latin America and Africa suffer from exceptionally high levels of these non-technical losses. This study looks at the scale of the problem with data for 125 individual countries, the leading solutions, key vendors and their offerings and a number of case studies.
Globally, utilities lose $96 billion per year to non-technical losses - typically electricity theft, fraud, billing errors, and other lost revenue. The effect of these losses can be crippling, driving up electricity prices for paying customers, starving utilities of the resources for future capital investment, and in many cases creating financially unsustainable utilities or draining governments of subsidies that could be used to modernize the country’s infrastructure. Until recently, there were few effective solutions for this problem. Labor-intensive premise inspections and account auditing often costs more than the actual value of the losses, enforcement is always challenging, and previously AMI metering was prohibitively expensive in many countries. This is now changing, with AMI plans in the works across all regions of the world.
Furthermore, sophisticated software and analytics can use real-time data from AMI meters and other grid infrastructure to pinpoint the source of non-technical losses. These solutions are spreading from developed countries where they are in many cases already well established to emerging market countries where the problem is significantly larger and critical to the fundamental health of many countries’ utilities. This will create a multi-billion dollar market, with companies from small software startups to the largest metering vendors and system integrators seeking to gain a piece of the market
Key questions answered in this study:
- How much does each country across the world lose to non-technical losses in terms of dollars, percentage lost, and dollars lost per customer?
- What are the most cost-effective solutions for reducing non-technical losses?
- Who are the leading vendors and how are their solutions differentiated?
i. Executive summary
1. Quantifying the electricity theft problem
2. Loss-reduction solutions
3. Market forecasts
5.1 AMI forecast
5.2 Revenue protection analytics forecast
5.3 Prepaid metering forecast
4. Case studies
5. Revenue protection vendors
6. Appendix (data for 125 individual countries)
List of Figures, Boxes, and Tables
Electricity theft and non-technical losses: Key takeaways
Figure 1.1: Non-technical losses by percentage and value
Figure 1.2: Top 30 countries for non-technical losses in terms of value
Figure 1.3: Non-technical losses by region
Figure 1.4: Comparison of NTL and revenue protection analytics investment
Figure 1.5: Top 20 countries for NTL on per-capita basis
Figure 2.1: Comparison of loss-reduction activities
Table 2.1: Non-technical loss reduction options
Figure 2.2: Analytics-based loss-reduction solutions
Figure 3.1: AMI forecast by region (cumulative)
Figure 3.2: Regional residential electricity meter market sizes in 20
Figure 3.3: Regional residential electricity meter market sizes in 20
Figure 3.4: Revenue protection analytics forecast by region (cumulative)
Figure 3.5: Combined prepaid metering (thick and thin) forecast by region
Figure 3.6: Current state of global prepaid electricity metering
Table 3.1: Largest prepaid metering growth markets
Figure 4.1: Revenue protection case studies
Figure 4.2: Expected costs and savings for Energia+ at Eletrobras
Figure 4.3: Billing changes after revenue protection program at SMUD
Table 4.1: Non-technical loss reduction solutions at JPS
Table 4.2: Donor loss-reduction initiatives in Mozambique
Figure 5.1: Revenue protection analytics vendor landscape
Table 5.1: Other revenue protection analytics vendors
Table 6.1: Global non-technical loss data