Western Europe Smart Grid: Market Forecast

  • ID: 4311627
  • Report
  • Region: Europe, Western Europe
  • 165 Pages
  • Northeast Group, LLC
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Western Europe will invest $133.7bn in smart grid infrastructure over the next decade

A study of the smart grid infrastructure opportunity across 20 Western European countries over the period 2017-2027 (165 pages + PowerPoint + dataset).

Countries in the region are diverse, including those still largely open to advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) investment (e.g. Germany), those undertaking large-scale rollouts (e.g. France) and those already beginning AMI replacement cycles (e.g. Sweden). The AMI installed base is already significant across the region and distribution automation (DA) will present significant opportunities over the next decade.

Western Europe is a mature smart grid market, propelled by multiple strong drivers and anchored by regional energy goals set by the European Union (EU). The region includes a range of markets, from countries that were among the first in the world to complete national smart meter rollouts to others that have achieved only minimal smart meter penetration. 

The energy policies of Western European countries are more synchronized than those in other regions, owing to the influence exerted by the EU. In response to the threat of climate change, the EU has initiated a broad regional shift towards a green energy economy that requires very significant smart grid infrastructure investment. Several consequences of this regional policy have already come to pass, including national smart meter rollouts and rapid integration of renewable energy resources across the continent. Most countries covered in this study are adhering to an EU smart meter mandate requiring 80% AMI penetration by 2020. Three countries covered in the study—Iceland, Switzerland, and Norway—are not EU members, though the latter two are deeply connected to the European energy grid and generally shadow policies followed by EU members.

Western Europe’s smart grid policy framework is arguably the strongest in the world, with several countries on the verge of completing national rollouts. Even so, business case realities would likely drive the market if policy directives were to falter. Smart meter rollouts, some of which were in fact enacted prior to the passage of EU smart meter mandates, would go a long way in addressing both Western Europe’s high electricity prices and high levels of electricity consumption.

Barriers for the Western European market are limited. Even with low GDP growth rates, the region is wealthy, precluding issues of project funding that are encountered elsewhere. Public opinion is also largely behind energy efficiency and green energy initiatives. The main concern is unforeseen economic turbulence. Smart grid programs – particularly for countries in Southern Europe such as Greece or Portugal – could be vulnerable to government cutbacks. Another limiting factor for the Western European smart grid market is that contracts have been awarded or rollouts completed in many countries, reducing near-term opportunities.!

Despite the Western European smart grid market having progressed to an advanced stage, the completion of a national rollout does not signal an end to a country’s smart grid investment. On the contrary, smart meters will allow for further investment in other segments of smart grid infrastructure including DA, IT, and battery storage, among other segments. Further, smart meters will allow for a more advanced electricity retail market to develop, featuring demand response (DR) programs and more options for tariff structures. The move towards a customer-oriented market made possible by AMI will drive rather than curb overall smart grid investment.

Vendors within Western Europe have capitalized on their geographic advantage, winning the lion’s share of smart metering contracts. The most active to date have been Landis+Gyr of Switzerland, Sagemcom of France, Ziv of Spain, Kamstrup of Denmark, and Aidon of Finland, among others. Vendors from outside the the region have also established a strong foothold in Western Europe, most notably US-based Itron.

Key questions answered in this study

  • How large will the smart grid market be across Western Europe over the next decade?
  • How quickly are Western European countries expected to comply with EU smart grid requirements?
  • How will the region’s rapid renewable energy expansion impact smart grid investment?
  • How will smart grid investment develop in countries already finished with smart metering?
  • What regional projects have been completed by the top international smart grid vendors?
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i. Executive summary

1. Western Europe snapshot
1.1 Regional comparison
1.2 Policy drivers
1.3 Market drivers
1.4 Market barriers

2. Market forecast

3. Open markets
3.1 Germany
3.2 Greece
3.3 Austria
3.4 Belgium
3.5 Switzerland
3.6 Ireland

4. Settled markets
4.1 France
4.2 UK
4.3 Spain
4.4 Netherlands
4.5 Portugal
4.6 Norway

5. Replacement market opportunities
5.1 Italy
5.2 Sweden
5.3 Denmark

6. Other countries

7. Activity in other smart grid segments

8. Vendor activity

9. Appendix I: Methodology

10. Appendix II: Smart grid overview

11. Appendix III: Global smart grid activity

12. Appendix IV: List of companies and acronyms

List of Figures and Tables:
Western Europe electricity metering: Key takeaways
Western Europe AMI penetration by 2020
Western Europe binding national targets for full-scale AMI rollout
Western Europe electricity prices
Western Europe wind and solar power
Western Europe regional wholesale electricity markets
Figure 1.1: Electricity consumption by region
Figure 1.2: Electricity price by region
Figure 1.3: GDP per capita by region
Figure 1.4: European Union membership
Figure 1.5: 2009/72/EC Measure on Consumer Protection
Figure 1.6: EU cost-bene?t analysis results - Net bene?t per endpoint
Table 1.1: EU recommendations for smart meter requirements
Figure 1.7: Publications issued by EU Smart Grid Task Force
Figure 1.8: EU Smart Grid Task Force expert working groups
Table 1.2: EU climate targets through 2050
Figure 1.9: Western Europe nuclear phase-out
Figure 1.10: ETP Smart Grids working groups
Figure 1.11: Main regional drivers
Figure 1.12: EU average electricity prices
Figure 1.13: Western Europe electricity prices
Figure 1.14: Electricity consumption in Western Europe
Figure 1.15: GDP per capita of Western European countries
Figure 1.16: Wind and solar in Western Europe
Figure 1.17: GDP growth rates (2017 - 2021)
Figure 2.1: AMI penetration rate
Figure 2.2: Per-endpoint AMI cost breakdown in Europe
Figure 2.3: AMI penetration rate by country in 2020
Figure 2.4: Smart grid market forecast by segment in Western Europe
Table 2.1: Western Europe smart grid forecast data
Figure 2.5: AMI market forecast by segment in Western Europe
Table 2.2: Western Europe AMI forecast data
Figure 3.1: Power retail companies in German market
Figure 3.2: German residential electricity tariff breakdown
Figure 3.3: German residential electricity tariff
Figure 3.4: Germany fuel mix
Figure 3.5: German utilities - Earnings per share
Figure 3.6: Energiewende targets
Figure 3.7: Smart grid market forecast by segment in Germany
Table 3.1: Germany smart grid forecast data
Figure 3.8: AMI market forecast by segment in Germany
Table 3.2: Germany AMI forecast data
Figure 3.9:  Greece electricity generation fuel source (2015)
Figure 3.10: Greece electricity price
Figure 3.11: PPC average price per share
Figure 3.12: Timeline of HEDNO pilot project bidding process
Figure 3.13: Smart meter activity in Greece
Figure 3.14: Smart grid market forecast by segment in Greece
Table 3.3: Greece smart grid forecast data
Figure 3.15: AMI market forecast by segment in Greece
Table 3.4: Greece AMI forecast data
Figure 3.16: Austria electricity generation fuel portfolio 2015
Figure 3.17: Deployment plans reported by Austrian utilities
Figure 3.18: Deployments by leading Austrian utilities
Table 3.5: Smart metering progress by Austrian utilities
Figure 3.19: Smart meter deployments and contracts in Austria
Figure 3.20: Smart grid market forecast by segment in Austria
Table 3.6: Austria smart grid forecast data
Figure 3.21: AMI market forecast by segment in Austria
Table 3.7: Austria AMI forecast data
Table 3.8: Belgian power regulators
Figure 3.22: Belgium fuel portfolio
Figure 3.23: Electricity generation by volume
Figure 3.24: Electricity prices in Europe
Figure 3.25: Belgian DSO smart meter activity
Figure 3.26: Smart grid market forecast by segment in Belgium
Table 3.9: Belgium smart grid forecast data
Figure 3.27: AMI market forecast by segment in Belgium
Table 3.10: Belgium AMI forecast data
Figure 3.28: Switzerland fuel portfolio
Figure 3.29: CO2 emissions from power generation
Figure 3.30: Smart grid projects in Switzerland
Figure 3.31: Smart grid market forecast by segment in Switzerland
Table 3.11: Switzerland smart grid forecast data
Figure 3.32: AMI market forecast by segment in Switzerland
Table 3.12: Switzerland AMI forecast data
Figure 3.33: Stakeholders in Irish smart meter rollout
Figure 3.34: Growth of wind power in Ireland
Figure 3.35: Irish national rollout cost bene?t analyses (CBAs)
Figure 3.36: Smart grid market forecast by segment in Ireland
Table 3.13: Ireland smart grid forecast data
Figure 3.37: AMI market forecast by segment in Ireland
Table 3.14: Ireland AMI forecast data
Figure 4.1: Electricity generation by fuel source (2015)
Figure 4.2: Timeline of French national rollout
Table 4.1: French national rollout - participating vendors
Figure 4.3: French smart meter tenders
Figure 4.4: Smart grid market forecast by segment in France
Table 4.2: France smart grid forecast data
Figure 4.5: AMI market forecast by segment in France
Table 4.3: France AMI forecast data
Figure 4.6: Market share of UK distribution utilities
Figure 4.7: UK AMI communications/IT providers
Figure 4.8: UK rollout schedule
Figure 4.9: Smart grid market forecast by segment in UK
Table 4.4: UK smart grid forecast data
Figure 4.10: AMI market forecast by segment in UK
Table 4.5: UK AMI forecast data
Figure 4.11: Spain’s growth in wind and solar
Figure 4.12: Deployment progress of three largest Spanish utilities
Table 4.6: Spain smart meter vendor activity
Figure 4.13: Smart grid market forecast by segment in Spain
Table 4.7: Spain smart grid forecast data
Figure 4.14: AMI market forecast by segment in Spain
Table 4.8: Spain AMI forecast data
Figure 4.15: Fossil fuel percentages in Europe
Figure 4.16: Deployment progress of three largest Dutch utilities
Table 4.9: Netherlands smart meter vendor activity
Figure 4.17: Smart grid market forecast by segment in Netherlands
Table 4.10: Netherlands smart grid forecast data
Figure 4.18: AMI market forecast by segment in Netherlands
Table 4.11: Netherlands AMI forecast data
Figure 4.19: MIBEL and Portugal generation portfolio
Figure 4.20: Household electricity price in Portugal
Figure 4.21: Smart grid market forecast by segment in Portugal
Table 4.12: Portugal smart grid forecast data
Figure 4.22: AMI market forecast by segment in Portugal
Table 4.13: Portugal AMI forecast data
Figure 4.23: Norway electricity industry concentration
Figure 4.24: Electricity prices and hydro power in Europe
Figure 4.25: Norwegian smart meter rollout timeline
Figure 4.26: Meter vendor market share in Norwegian rollout
Table 4.14: Norwegian smart grid alliances
Table 4.15: Val i der Consortium
Figure 4.27: Smart grid market forecast by segment in Norway
Table 4.16: Norway smart grid forecast data
Figure 4.28: AMI market forecast by segment in Norway
Table 4.17: Norway AMI forecast data
Table 5.1: Annual replacement meters (units)
Table 6.1: Remaining countries
Table 7.1: Battery storage projects in Western Europe
Table 8.1: Western European vendors
Table 8.2 : Non-Western European vendors
Figure 8.1: Key vendor activity by geography
Figure 8.2: Market share of leading AMI vendors in Western Europe
Figure 10.1: Smart grid value chain
Figure 11.1: Global smart grid activity
Figure 11.2: Cumulative smart grid investment from by region ($m)
Figure 11.3: Annual smart grid and AMI investment by region in 2027
Table 11.1: Global smart grid drivers and activity

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