Poland’s population will be 38.3M in 2017, making it the third-largest country in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) after Russia and Ukraine. The Economist Intelligence Unit expects a marginal decline in population over the 2017-2022 periods, to 38.1m. Poland’s nominal GDP is expected to be US$463bn in 2017, a decline of 1.4% year-on-year. Despite the decline, the Polish economy will be the second largest in the CEE region, after Russia, according to the EIU. GDP is expected to return to growth in 2018 and reach US$637bn by 2022.
Telecom service revenue growth in Poland through 2017-2022 will be driven by the mobile data, fixed broadband and pay-TV service segments. Mobile voice will be the largest revenue-contributing segment in 2017, but mobile data is expected to overtake mobile voice in 2019 and beyond. Operator focus on data-centric services and investments in next-generation mobile and fixed deployments should boost revenue in Poland through the forecast period. Growth of M2M/IoT initiatives and operator investments in high-speed broadband, thanks to the government’s National Broadband Strategy (Digital Poland 2020), can be expected to provide significant opportunities for vendors and investors over the coming years.
Poland’s National Broadband Strategy (Digital Poland), covering 2014-2020, aims to provide Internet connectivity of at least 30Mbps to 100% of households and companies by 2020. It also aims to provide 100Mbps to 50% of households and companies during the same time period. As part of Digital Poland, which is partly funded by the EU, the government is deploying GPON fiber-optic networks in order to deliver broadband service to more than 2,500 schools and 400,000 residences in 13 areas in central & northern Poland (with a current projected budget of US$336m).
It is expected that the total telecom service revenue in Poland to reach US$7.4bn (Zl 30.7bn) in 2017, a decline of 5.2% in USD terms and of 0.2% in local currency terms, over 2016. Telecom service revenue is expected to make up 1.6% of GDP in 2017. Mobile voice is expected to be the largest revenue segment (32.4% of the total in 2017, compared with 34.7% in 2016) followed by mobile data (26.4% in 2017, up from 23.2% in 2016).
The report "Poland: Country Intelligence Report" provides an executive-level overview of the telecommunications market in Poland today, with detailed forecasts of key indicators up to 2022. Additionally, it provides detailed analysis of the near-term opportunities, competitive dynamics and evolution of demand by service type and technology/platform across the fixed telephony, broadband, and mobile, as well as a review of key regulatory trends.
In particular, this report provides the following:
- Regional context: Telecom market size and trends in Poland compared with other countries in the region.
- Economic, demographic and political context in Poland.
- The regulatory environment and trends: A review of the regulatory setting and agenda for the next 18-24 months as well as relevant developments pertaining to spectrum licensing, national broadband plans, number portability and more.
- A demand profile: Analysis as well as historical figures and forecasts of service revenue from the fixed telephony, broadband, mobile voice, and mobile data markets.
- Service evolution: A look at changes in the breakdown of overall revenue between the fixed and mobile sectors and between voice, data and video from 2016 to 2022.
- The competitive landscape: An examination of key trends in competition and in the performance, revenue market shares and expected moves of service providers over the next 18-24 months.
- In-depth sector analysis of fixed telephony, broadband, mobile voice, and mobile data services: A quantitative analysis of service adoption trends by network technology and by operator, as well as of average revenue per line/subscription and service revenue through the end of the forecast period.
- Main opportunities: Details the near-term opportunities for operators, vendors and investors in Poland telecommunications market.
- The author expects overall telecom service revenue in Poland to grow at a CAGR of 4.3% in US dollar terms between 2017 and 2022.
- Mobile revenue, including voice, data and messaging, is expected to account for approximately 65.4% of total service revenue by 2022.
- 4G is forecast to overtake 3G as the most adopted mobile technology by 2018. 4G is expected to make up approximately 79.8% of subscriptions by 2022, and the author anticipates that 5G will become commercially available in 2020.
- The two top mobile operators, Orange Poland and Play (P4), accounted for approximately 56.2% share of total mobile subscriptions in 2017. The author expects competition to intensify further as operators focus on expansion of LTE networks and undertake carrier aggregation to enhance network speeds and capacity. In addition to this, Play (P4) is opting for an initial public offering (IPO) in the second half of 2017.
- Orange Poland is expected to lead the fixed segment in 2017, taking approximately 57.0% share of fixed voice subscriptions and approximately 26.1% share of fixed broadband subscriptions. Focus on fixed-mobile integration in the Polish market increased in Q1 2017 via the launch of Orange Love packages, which combined fixed broadband, fixed voice, mobile and pay-TV services at a discount. Operators are set to focus on fiber network expansions and development of appealing consumer-centric high-speed data offerings through the forecast period.
- This Country Intelligence Report offers a thorough, forward-looking analysis of Poland’s telecommunications markets, service providers and key opportunities in a concise format to help executives build proactive and profitable growth strategies.
- The author expects Poland to be the second largest in Central and Eastern Europe in terms of telecom service revenue, in 2017. Poland will be key market through the 2017-2022 forecast period in terms of investment and opportunity, thanks in part to government and regulator strategies such as the National Broadband Strategy (Digital Poland) and the 5G Strategy.
- Accompanying the author’s Forecast products, the report examines the assumptions and drivers behind ongoing and upcoming trends in Poland’s mobile communications, fixed telephony, broadband markets, including the evolution of service provider market shares.
- With more than 20 charts and tables, the report is designed for an executive-level audience, boasting presentation quality.
- The report provides an easily digestible market assessment for decision-makers built around in-depth information gathered from local market players, which enables executives to quickly get up to speed with the current and emerging trends in Poland’s telecommunications markets.
- The broad perspective of the report coupled with comprehensive, actionable detail will help operators, equipment vendors and other telecom industry players succeed in the challenging telecommunications market in Poland.
Demographic, macroeconomic and regulatory context
Demographic and macroeconomic context
Telecom and pay-TV services market outlook
Total telecom service revenue
Mobile services market
Fixed services market
Pay-TV services market
Competitive landscape and company snapshots
Competitive landscape and company snapshots (cont’d)
About the authors
Country Intelligence Report coverage