Fifth-generation (5G) wireless networks could leapfrog the capacity of cable operators’ hybrid fiber-coax (HFC) networks by leveraging millimeter wave spectrum, small cells, and higher spectral efficiency. This report is an essential business planning tool, quantifying broadband demand today and tomorrow, and calculating the throughput per square kilometer for competing networks.
Leveraging millimeter wave spectrum, small cells, and the higher spectral efficiency of 5G, mobile operators will achieve the capacity gains needed to successfully compete with fixed broadband service providers. This report calculates the throughput per square kilometer for wireless and cable networks, analyzes the key capacity variables, identifies and quantifies the applications driving today’s demand and likely to drive demand tomorrow, and explains how the wireless industry will meet the challenges associated with millimeter wave propagation and small cell siting.
- Why Is 5G Wireless Likely To Be A Disruptive Technology?
- Why Is The Continued Evolution Of 4G Unlikely To Be Sufficient?
- Will Mobile Operators Be Able To Compete Successfully With Fixed Broadband Providers?
- Is 5G A Threat Or Opportunity To Cable Operators?
- Is 5G A Threat Or Opportunity To Fiber Network Operators?
- Can The Challenges Associated With Using Millimeter Wave Spectrum Be Surmounted?
- Can The Challenges Associated With Deploying Small Cells Be Overcome?
- What Are The 5G Strategies Of The Tier 1 Wireless Operators?
- What Are The Expected Bandwidth Requirements For Consumers Over Time?
- What Network Capacity Is Required Today And In The Future On A Per Sq. Km. Basis?
- Does The Cable Industry Have An Effective Hfc Network Roadmap To Compete With 5G?
- How Many Broadband Subscribers Might “Cut The Cord” Over Time?
4G LTE Technology Capabilities
How 5G Redefines The Broadband Landscape
Overcoming Millimeter Wave Challenges And Opportunities
Spectral Efficiency And 5G Throughput Rates
- 4G Spectral Efficiency
- 5G Spectral Efficiency
- 5G Throughput Rates
Historical Capacity Growth And 5G Disruption
Comparison Of Cellular Band Capacity
Broadband Demand Factors
- Internet Demand
- TV Demand
Current HFC Capacity And Capability
5G Capacity Analysis And Comparison With HFC
Hfc Networks Roadmap
Siting Outdoor Small Cells
Mmwave Small Cell Forecast And Subscribers Served
Role Of Other Wireless Technologies
5G Strategies Of Key Industry Players
Table of Figures
Figure 1: Transformation Of Broadband From The Current Decade To The Next
Figure 2: 5G Schedule Showing Standardization And First Deployments
Figure 3: Capacity Of Wireless Versus Fiber
Figure 4: Comparison Of 3G And 4G Downlink Spectral Efficiency
Figure 5: The Three Items That Determine Capacity
Figure 6: Monthly Internet Demand Per Household (Excludes Tv Replacement)
Figure 7: Small Cell Forecast At 33% Annual Growth
Table of Tables
Table 1: Current United States Cellular Allocations
Table 2: United States 5G Bands
Table 3: Historical And Expected 5G Annualized Gains Of Capacity Parameters
Table 4: Relative Capacity Of Different Cellular Bands, Normalized To Low Band
Table 5: Data Consumption Based On Type Of Application
Table 6: Docsis 3.1 Spectral Efficiency And Resulting Capacity
Table 7: 5G Downlink Capacity (Fixed Wireless Access) Per Sq. Km. With 200 Mhz, 5 Bps/Hz
Table 8: 5G Downlink Capacity (Fixed Wireless Access) Per Sq. Km. With 400 Mhz, 5 Bps/Hz
Table 9: 5G Downlink Capacity (Fixed Wireless Access) Per Sq. Km. With 400 Mhz, 10 Bps/Hz
Table 10: Docsis 3.1, 1000 Homes Per Sq. Km., 860 Mhz
Table 11: Docsis 3.1, 1000 Homes Per Sq. Km., 1790 Mhz
Table 12: Extended Spectrum Docsis, 1000 Homes Per Sq. Km., 6000 Mhz
Table 13: Other Wireless Spectrum And Technologies That Will Disrupt Broadband
Leveraging millimeter wave spectrum, small cells, and the higher spectral efficiency of 5G, mobile operators will achieve the capacity gains needed to successfully compete with fixed broadband service providers. That is a key conclusion of the 55-page report, Broadband Disruption: How 5G Will Reshape the Competitive Landscape.
"This research indicates that 5G networks have the potential to leapfrog the capacity of cable operators’ HFC networks," said Peter Rysavy, principal author of the report. "We show how to calculate the throughput per square kilometer for wireless and cable networks, and analyze all of the key variables," he added.
"This report is an essential business planning tool. It identifies and quantifies the applications driving today’s demand and likely to drive demand tomorrow," said Ira Brodsky, President of Datacomm Research. "It also explains how the wireless industry will meet the challenges associated with millimeter wave propagation and small cell siting," he concluded.
Broadband Disruption: How 5G Will Reshape the Competitive Landscape includes an Executive Summary answering 12 critical questions discussed at length in the report. There are 20 tables and figures detailing data consumption by application, the 5G standardization and deployment schedule, the capacity of 5G and DOCSIS (cable) networks given realizable assumptions, and a forecast for small cell growth in the U.S.
Peter Rysavy has tracked the capacity of wireless networks for many years. Rysavy Research assists clients in defining strategic directions, conducting market research, and deploying wireless applications.
Datacomm Research Company is a leader in tracking, analyzing, and forecasting emerging telecommunication markets. The company has published pioneering reports for more than 25 years.
Additional conclusions in Broadband Disruption: How 5G Will Reshape the Competitive Landscape include:
1. Though 5G technology is a threat to cable operators, cable operators have an upgrade path of their own. This includes both extending fiber deeper into the network and/or using 5G technology instead of coax, especially in greenfield deployments.
2. The average household consumes significantly more data per month than the average mobile user today, and household consumption is likely to multiply over the next decade as ultra-high definition video and virtual reality become popular.
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