Plan B for Mexico Scenarios to Monitor

  • ID: 4372544
  • Country Profile
  • Region: Mexico
  • Frontier Strategy Group
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Prepare for a Populist, Protectionist Storm

A snapshot of the key Mexico scenarios to prepare for. Learn about growing unease in Mexico, NAFTA renegotiation possibilities, Trump protectionist policy, the likelihood for Trade War, and how companies can take action today.

Mexico confronts increasing uncertainty over the pace of its economic performance as the potentially dangerous ramifications of the new Trump administration’s protectionist measures compound interest rate hikes, inflation, and currency volatility.

While most companies have seen limited direct impact on their businesses beyond the effect of peso depreciation, most are continuing to develop contingency plans to mitigate severely disruptive political and trade-related risks, while evaluating the potential fallout on Mexico’s domestic politics and business environment over the next two years.

What you will learn

  • What are the top 2017-18 scenarios to prepare for
  • Forecasts for Base Case, Upside, and Downside scenarios
  • Pragmatic actions companies should take right now to protect their business
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1. Executive Summary

2. Mexico is Driving Growing Unease

  • Business Environment Grows More Complex
  • Mexico’s Outlook is Clouded by Risk

3. External and Domestic Disruptors

  • Mexico 2017-2018 Scenarios
  • NAFTA is No Longer a Given for Mexico
  • Trump’s Protectionist Options
  • Protectionism vs. NAFTA Modernization
  • NAFTA Scenarios for Mexico 2017-2018
  • Political Risk is Rising in Mexico
  • The PRI is Unlikely to Remain in Power
  • Populist Victory is Most Likely
  • Political Scenarios for Mexico 2017-2018

4. Scenarios: Forecasts and Actions to Take

  • Mexico 2017-2018 Scenarios
  • Base Case: Populist Uncertainty
  • Upside Base Case: Status Quo
  • Upside Case: Back in Business
  • Downside Case: Trade War

5. Post 2018 Outlook

6. Implications for Multinationals: Contingency & Scenario Planning

  • The Business Case for Contingency Planning
  • Contingency Planning Methodology
  • Contingency Planning Process
  • Scenario Planning Processes
  • Market Monitoring Processes

7. About us

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