Bulgaria Country Report - Q2, 2017

  • ID: 4372619
  • Country Profile
  • Region: Bulgaria
  • 90 Pages
  • Emerging Markets Direct
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This report covers the key economic, financial and political releases for Bulgaria for the period April 29 - August 1.

The new government of centre-right Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria (GERB), this time with the nationalist United Patriots coalition as a junior partner, took office on May 4.

Moody's, Fitch and S&P rate Bulgaria at Baa2, BBB- and BB+/B respectively. On May 26, Moody's affirmed the country’s rating. On June 2, Fitch and S&P affirmed Bulgaria’s ratings too, but also revised their outlooks to positive from stable.

On August 1, Macedonia and Bulgaria signed an historic friendship treaty that opens the way for deeper cooperation between the two neighbours.

Bulgaria’s real GDP increased 3.5% y/y in the first quarter of 2017, slightly accelerating from 3.4% y/y growth in Q4 2016, seasonally adjusted statistics office data showed on June 7.

In June, the World Bank projected that Bulgaria’s GDP will increase by a real 3% in 2017. In its spring European Economic Forecast, the European Commission (EC) has maintained unchanged its projections for the country’s GDP growth in 2017 and 2018 at 2.9% and 2.8% respectively. On May 10, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has raised its forecast for Bulgaria’s real GDP growth to 3.2% in 2017.

Bulgaria's consumer sentiment deteriorated during the three months to April, as the confidence indicator decreased to -27 from -25.4, the statistics office said on May 9. The January reading is the highest since July 2001. The overall business climate indicator decreased 1.4 points m/m in July, after falling 0.7 points m/m in June.

Bulgaria's industrial production increased 9.6% y/y in May, speeding up from a 5.1% y/y rise in April. The construction production went up 12% y/y in May, after climbing 2.1% y/y in April. Annual growth of retail sales (at constant prices) accelerated to 6.2% from 2.3%.

Key points

  • The CPI increased 1.9% y/y in June, after rising 2.3% y/y in May
  • Bulgaria reported a consolidated budget surplus of BGN1.96bn (€1bn) in the first seven months of 2017, equal to 2% of projected GDP, preliminary data from the finance ministry showed
  • The country reported a current account surplus of €79.1mn in the first five months of 2017, down from a surplus of €131.2mn in the same period of 2016.
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1.0 Executive summary

2.0 Politics

3.0 Macro Economy
3.1 Macroeconomic overview
3.2 Macro outlook

4.0 Real Economy
4.1 GDP
4.2 Industrial production
4.3 Inflation
4.3.1 CPI dynamics
4.3.2 PPI dynamic
4.4 Fixed investment
4.5 Labour and income
4.5.1 Labour market, unemployment dynamics
4.5.2 Income dynamics
4.5.3 Retail sector dynamics

5.0 External Sector & Trade
5.1 Foreign trade
5.2 Balance of payments, current account
5.3 FDI
5.4 Gross external debt
5.5 Foreign reserves

6.0 Public Sector
6.1 Budget
6.2 Government debt

7.0 FX

8.0 Financial & capital markets
8.1 Bank sector
8.1.1 Bank sector overview
8.1.2 Earning, NPLs
8.1.3 Money supply, deposits, loans
8.1.4 Interest rates
8.1.5 Bank news
8.2 Capital market
8.3 International ratings

9.0 Industry & Sectors
9.1 Sector news
9.1.1 Oil & gas sector news
9.1.2 Construction & Real estate sector news
9.1.3 Retail sector news
9.1.4 Tourism sector news
9.1.5 Utilities sector news
9.1.6 Transport sector news
9.1.7 Other sector news
9.2 Major corporate news
9.2.1 Automotive corporate news
9.2.2 Construction & Real estate corporate news
9.2.3 Retail corporate news
9.2.4 TMT corporate news
9.2.5 Utilities corporate news
9.2.6 Metallurgy & mining corporate news
9.2.7 Transport corporate news
9.2.8 Other sector corporate news

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