Indian Commercial Vehicles (CV) Market, Forecast to 2022

  • ID: 4377276
  • Report
  • Region: India
  • 150 Pages
  • Frost & Sullivan
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Implementation of Bharat Stage-IV to Negatively Impact CV Demand in FY2018; Demand to Reach New Heights in FY2020

This study involves a unique methodology of analysis of various end-use application segments in commercial vehicles, their usage pattern, replacement cycles, and expected growth in the end-use industry, coupled with Mega Trends such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, urbanization, changing safety and emission norms, new tax reforms, changing trends in the usage pattern, and the resultant effect on the demand of commercial vehicles across the Gross Vehicle Weight (GVW) range.

The scope of the study includes commercial vehicle goods carriers (excluding 3W) and passenger carriers (excluding cars and vans) as defined by the Society of Indian Automobiles Manufacturers (SIAM).

For goods carriers, the various end-use industry sectors that drive the demand for commercial vehicles include cement, Petroleum, Oil, and Lubricants (POL), Steel, mining, construction material, agriculture, Fast Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG), Fast Moving Consumer Durables (FMCD), automobiles, import-export containers, and market load.

For the passenger carrier segment, the various end-user applications include school, staff, tourist, intra-city, and intercity buses.

Total Units in Operation (UIO) for all the above end-user applications have been estimated. Estimated growth in end-use applications, coupled with vehicle replacement patterns in each segment, is used to estimate the demand in each segment.

Apart from end-use applications, the Indian commercial vehicle industry is also affected by a number of factors as follows which are used to further iterate the demand for commercial vehicles.

  • One of the fastest growing GDPs in the world, leading to higher demand for goods and services
  • Changing safety and emission regulations with the country moving to Bharat Stage-IV (Euro IV) norms in April 2017 affecting the purchase cost of vehicles
  • Implementation of the Goods and Service Tax (GST) in July 2017 which effectively makes the whole of India a single market with no state barriers or differential taxation
  • Increasing restrictions on overloading, thereby, increasing the demand for higher GVW vehicles
  • Mega Trends such as urbanization, which is increasing the demand for last-mile connectivity

Key questions this study will answer are as follows:

  • Historic analysis of the commercial vehicles industry in India from FY2009 to FY2016
  • Key participants in the industry and their market shares for FY2016 and FY2017
  • Market shares of various participants in each segment categories of Light Commercial Vehicles (LCV) and Medium and Heavy Commercial Vehicles (MHCV)
  • End-user demand drivers of commercial vehicles in India
  • Estimated impact of each application segment in the demand for commercial vehicles
  • Impact of Mega Trends and how it will impact the growth of commercial vehicles
  • GVW-wise forecast of commercial vehicles, including goods carriers and passenger carriers till FY2022
  • Year-on-year forecast of all segment from FY2018 to FY2022
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1. Executive Summary

  • Key Findings

2. Segmentation and Historical Data Analysis-Indian CV Industry

  • Indian CV Market Segmentation
  • Segmentation by Application and Vehicle Usage
  • Segmentation by Vehicle Category
  • Commercial Vehicles Historic Trend
  • Major Factors Affecting CV Sales
  • Market Share Analysis of Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs)
  • Unit Sales by Vehicle Usage
  • Market Share Analysis of OEMs by GC and PC
  • MHCV Sales by Vehicle Usage
  • Market Share Analysis of OEMs by MHCV GC and PC
  • LCV Sales by Vehicle Usage
  • Market Share Analysis of OEMs by LCV GC and PC

3. Goods Carrier Segment Analysis-Major Load Producing Industries and CV UIO

  • Modal Split for Primary Transportation, POL, India, FY2017
  • Modal Split for Primary Transportation, Cement and Mining, India, FY2017
  • Modal Split for Primary Transportation, Other Sectors, India, FY2017

4. Cement

  • Cement Industry-India, FY2017
  • Cement-Value Chain
  • Units in Operation Estimates, Cement, India, FY2017

5. Petroleum, Oils, Lubricants (POL)

  • POL Sector-India, FY2017
  • Major Refinery Hubs in India
  • POL-Value Chain
  • Chemical-Value Chain
  • Bitumen-Value Chain
  • Edible Oil-Value Chain
  • LPG Tanker-Value Chain
  • Units in Operation Estimates, POL, India, FY2017

6. Mining

  • Key Minerals Production and Mine Location-India, FY2017
  • Units in Operation Estimates, Mining, India, FY2017

7. Steel

  • Steel Sector-India, FY2017
  • Steel-Value Chain
  • Units in Operation Estimates, Steel, India, FY2017

8. Automobile Carriers

  • Automobile Industry-India, FY2017
  • Units in Operation Estimates, Automobiles, India, FY2017

9. Agriculture and Horticulture

  • Agriculture-India, FY2017
  • Units in Operation Estimates, Agriculture, India, FY2017

10. Construction Material

  • Road Infrastructure Development, India, 2005 to 2025(est)
  • Units in Operation Estimates, Construction Material, India, FY2017

11. ISO Containers

  • Port Container Traffic
  • ISO Container-Value Chain
  • Units in Operation Estimates, ISO Containers, India, FY2017

12. FMCG/FMCD Organized Retail and eCommerce

  • Retail Industry-Sector Snapshot: India, FY2009 to FY2017
  • Manufacturing Hubs-FMCG
  • Manufacturing Hubs-FMCD
  • Current Operating Practice-FMCG and FMCD, India, FY2017
  • Total UIO of the Applications Considered

13. Passenger Carriers-Usage and VIO Estimates

  • Staff Transportation
  • School Transportation
  • Intercity Transportation
  • Route Permit/Mofussil
  • Tourist
  • Major STUs Intercity Bus Fleet Strength, FY2017
  • Major CTUs Intracity Bus Fleet Strength, FY2017

14. Trends Shaping Indian Road Freight and Passenger Carrier Movement

  • Urbanization-Growth in Urban Regions by 2025: India
  • Smart Cities
  • Impact of Smart Cities Development on CV
  • Fast-tracking Projects
  • Impact of GST
  • GST-Explained
  • GST Levy Structure and Impact on Manufacturers
  • GST-Benefit for Automobile OEMs
  • Major Implications of GST for the HCV Industry
  • GST’s Impact on Logistics and Transportation
  • Major Warehousing Hubs will Emerge After GST
  • Emission Norms Roadmap
  • Regulations-Effect of Emission Norms on HD Trucks
  • Other Regulations
  • Other Regulations-Compulsory Air Conditioning (AC) in Truck Cabin
  • Regulations-Effect of Safety Regulation
  • Vehicle Scrapping Policy Background
  • Vehicle Scrapping Policy-Other Factors and Assumptions
  • Estimated Effect of Scrap Policy
  • Mega Projects-Dedicated Freight Corridor (DFC)
  • Mega Projects-Port Development: Sagar-Mala Project
  • Mega Projects-Railways Modernization
  • Dedicated Freight Corridor-Impact on CV, India
  • Overloading Practice (MHCV Segment)
  • Telematics in CVs
  • Mega Trends Shaping the Next 5 Years-CV PC
  • New Trends in Passenger Transportation

15. Industry Structure

  • Goods Carrier Industry Structure-India, FY2017
  • MHCV-GC Operating Economics Analysis-India
  • Manpower Availability
  • Government Policies for the Transportation Sector

16. Forecast Model-Indian CV Industry

  • Indian Economy and HCV Sales Trend-India
  • PESTLE-Political Impact Analysis: India
  • PESTLE-Economical Impact Analysis: India
  • PESTLE-Social Impact Analysis: India
  • PESTLE-Technological Impact Analysis: India
  • PESTLE-Legal Impact Analysis: India
  • PESTLE-Ecological Impact Analysis: India
  • GDP Forecast-Scenarios; India, FY2017-FY2022

17. Indian Commercial Vehicles Forecast-Application Segments Growth Estimates

  • Estimated Production Growth Rates by Segment
  • Cement-VIO Forecast: India, FY2017-FY2022
  • POL-VIO Forecast: India, FY2017-FY2022
  • Mining-VIO Forecast: India, FY2017-FY2022
  • Steel-VIO Forecast: India, FY2017-FY2022
  • Automobiles-VIO Forecast: India, FY2017-FY2022
  • Agriculture-VIO Forecast: India, FY2017-FY2022
  • Construction Material-VIO Forecast: India, FY2017-FY2022
  • ISO Containers-VIO Forecast: India, FY2017-FY2022
  • FMCG and FMCD-VIO Forecast: India, FY2017-FY2022
  • Market Load and LCV-VIO Forecast: India, FY2017-FY2022
  • Major Transport Undertakings-Plans for Procurement
  • Forecast Framework
  • Forecast-Goods Carrier: India, FY2017-FY2022
  • Segment-wise MHCV-GC Forecast-India, FY2017-FY2022
  • Segment-wise LCV-GC Forecast-India, FY2017-FY2022
  • Forecast-Passenger Carrier: India, FY2017-FY2022
  • Segment-wise PC Forecast-India, FY2017-FY2022

18. Growth Opportunities and Companies to Action

  • Growth Opportunity 1-Market Expansion
  • Growth Opportunity 2-Freight Digitization
  • Growth Opportunity 3-Telematics
  • Growth Opportunity 4-Value Addition in Trucks
  • Strategic Imperatives for Success and Growth

19. Conclusions and Future Outlook

  • Key Conclusions and Future Outlook
  • Key Conclusions
  • The Last Word-3 Big Predictions
  • Legal Disclaimer

20. Appendix

  • List of Abbreviations
  • Market Engineering Methodology
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