Russia is the world’s largest country in size and hosts a population of 146.4m as of 2017, including Crimea. The EIU expects the Russian population to decline to 145.4m by 2022 due to a low birth rate, high death rate and low immigration. The EIU expects Russia’s nominal GDP to grow at a CAGR of 3.9% in 2017-2022, from USUS$1.53trn to US$1.9trn. Growth will come from government efforts to foster new investment and from consumer spending.
Telecom services revenue growth in Russia over 2017-2022 will be sustained by the mobile data, fixed broadband and VoIP service segments. Mobile voice will remain the largest contributing segment until 2022, but its share will keep declining. Going forward, operators will focus on data-centric services and invest in LTE-A, 5G and FTTH deployments to boost broadband penetration in the country. Operators’ push for digital solutions such as M2M/IoT, 5G and high-speed broadband networks will create significant opportunities for vendors and investors in the coming years.
It is estimated that the Russian telecom services market will reach US$21.8bn (Rb1.3trn) in 2017, a 1% decline over 2016 in local currency. Forecast total revenue to reach US$21.0bn (Rb1.4trn) by 2022, growing at a CAGR of 1.4% in ruble over 2017-2022, as mobile and fixed broadband subscriptions increase and pressure on ARPS eases, driving up revenue.
MTS will remain market leader in terms of mobile subscriptions in 2017 with a share of 31.8% in 2017. The “Big Three,” MTS, MegaFon and Beeline, will jointly constitute 84.2% of the market. Operators will focus on LTE upgrades, carrier aggregation, LTE-A and 5G network development as key competitive strategy.
The report "Russia: Country Intelligence Report" provides an executive-level overview of the telecommunications market in Russia today, with detailed forecasts of key indicators up to 2021.
In particular, this report provides the following analysis:
- Regional Context: Telecom market size and trends in Russia compared with other countries in the region.
- Economic, demographic and political context in Russia.
- The regulatory environment and trends: A review of the regulatory setting and agenda for the next 18-24 months as well as relevant developments pertaining to spectrum licensing, national broadband plans, number portability and more.
- Demand Profile: Analysis as well as historical figures and forecasts of service revenue from the fixed telephony, broadband, mobile voice, and mobile data markets.
- Service Evolution: A look at changes in the breakdown of overall revenue between the fixed and mobile sectors and between voice, data and video from 2016 to 2021.
- Competitive Landscape: An examination of key trends in competition and in the performance, revenue market shares and expected moves of service providers over the next 18-24 months.
- In-depth sector analysis of fixed telephony, broadband, mobile voice, and mobile data services: A quantitative analysis of service adoption trends by network technology and by operator, as well as of average revenue per line/subscription and service revenue through the end of the forecast period.
- Main Opportunities: Details the near-term opportunities for operators, vendors and investors in the Russian telecommunications market.
- Total telecom service revenue growth in Russia will remain insignificant but avoid any erosion in market value over 2017-2022, supported by growth in the mobile data, VoIP and fixed broadband segment.
- Mobile revenue will account for 66.4% of total telecom revenue in 2022, with mobile data accounting for 42.7% of mobile revenue in 2021.
- 2G is currently the most adopted mobile technology. However, its share will decline during the forecast period as customers migrate to 4G and 5G assuming 5G is commercially available by 2021.
- The top two mobile operators, MTS and MegaFon, accounted for 61.5% share of overall mobile subscriptions in 2017. We expect the operators to compete for customer retention by focusing on tariffs and unique services in the coming years.
- Operators will continue to invest in 4G network expansions, fiber deployments and 5G to improve connectivity and cater to the rising data demand.
- This Country Intelligence Report offers a thorough, forward-looking analysis of Russia’s telecommunications markets, service providers and key opportunities in a concise format to help executives build proactive and profitable growth strategies.
- Accompanying the author’s forecast products, the report examines the assumptions and drivers behind ongoing and upcoming trends in Russia’s mobile communications, fixed telephony, broadband markets, including the evolution of service provider market shares.
- With more than 20 charts and tables, the report is designed for an executive-level audience, boasting presentation quality.
- The report provides an easily digestible market assessment for decision-makers built around in-depth information gathered from local market players, which enables executives to quickly get up to speed with the current and emerging trends in Russia’s telecommunications markets.
- The broad perspective of the report coupled with comprehensive, actionable detail will help operators, equipment vendors and other telecom industry players succeed in the challenging telecommunications market in Russia.
Demographic, macro and regulatory context
Demographic and macroeconomic context
Telecom and pay-TV services market outlook
Total telecom service revenue
Mobile services market
Fixed services market
Pay-TV services market
Competitive landscape and company snapshots
About the authors
Country Intelligence Report coverage