Central & Eastern Europe and Turkey Smart Grid: Market Forecast (2017-2027)

  • ID: 4399640
  • Report
  • Region: Central Europe, Eastern Europe, Europe, Turkey
  • 262 Pages
  • Northeast Group, LLC
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The Smart Grid Market Represents $28.6 Billion of Investment Over the Next Ten Years.

Countries in the Central & Eastern Europe (CEE) region are leaders for their smart grid and smart metering potential among emerging market nations. By 2027, ten of the 12 key countries in this study (all except for Croatia and Lithuania) will have completed smart meter deployments of at least 80% and many will have deployed other advanced smart grid infrastructure such as distribution  automation, home area networks, distributed renewable sources of generation, and electric vehicle charging infrastructure. Overall, the smart grid market represents $28.6 billion of investment over the next ten years.

Volume III of this study covers 12 CEE countries in depth, as well as six additional countries. It includes the 11 countries in Central & Eastern Europe that are now part of the European Union but until the early 1990s were Communist states, as well as Turkey, Albania, and the remaining former Yugoslav countries. These countries have all undergone radical industry restructurings over the past two decades, and in some cases are still in the process of full liberalization. In most countries, the state still plays a role in one or more segments of the electricity industry. Overall power infrastructure is in many cases outdated and not compatible with a fully integrated European power market. The CEE electricity market is therefore undergoing changes, which present utilities with opportunities to invest in smart grid infrastructure in the process of upgrading their grids.

Most of these countries must also meet EU regulations, and non-EU countries are following similar guidelines. EU Directive  2009/72/EC requires that all EU states conduct a cost-benefit analysis (CBA) for smart metering and that, if reaching a positive outcome, countries deploy smart meters to 80% of households and businesses by 2020. Most Western European countries have found net positive benefits from smart metering and launched smart metering programs to meet (or attempt to meet) EU targets. The case is less clear in the CEE region. Many countries have not officially decided, and with just three years to go, most CEE countries are expected to miss the EU target. But the EU is encouraging countries with negative CBAs to re-assess their smart meter potential in the next few years as costs come down and underlying conditions improve. Therefore, it is still likely that most CEE countries will begin large-scale deployments in the next few years. 

Beyond regulations, the CEE region’s core market conditions support smart meter deployments. Per-capita electricity consumption is higher than in most other emerging markets. Consumption is lower than in Western Europe but is growing faster. Meanwhile, the CEE region has stronger historic and economic ties with Russia, and recent aggressiveness from Russia has increased the importance of energy independence in the region. Finally, T&D losses and power outages are a much larger concern than in Western Europe. In some CEE countries, utilities can justify smart  meter deployments through immediate loss reduction benefits, with other benefits serving as an added bonus.

The CEE region also benefits from knowledge spillovers from Western Europe. Many utilities in CEE are owned by French, German, and Italian utilities that already have experience in deploying smart grid infrastructure. Almost all of the major smart grid vendors already have a presence in CEE countries, giving them a better grasp of regulatory conditions. EU-based vendors in particular face few barriers due to the common market. Additionally, many local vendors are already active across the region, which will help drive new market segments. 

Most CEE countries have not yet transposed EU smart metering regulations into national law or accepted the EU smart meter mandate. Therefore, some uncertainty still remains in the market. Still, CEE countries have conditions that support smart grid development, willing stakeholders, and well-developed pilot projects - including large-scale rollouts in some cases. The CEE smart grid market is poised for significant near-term growth.

Key questions answered in this study: 

  • How large will the smart grid market be across CEE and Turkey over the next decade?
  • Which CEE countries are expected to comply with EU smart grid requirements?
  • Which CEE countries are investing in more advanced smart grid segments like DA, WAM, IT and battery storage?
  • What major international and local vendors are best positioned to supply the CEE market?
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1. What’s new in 2017

2. Central and Eastern Europe smart grid snapshot
2.1 The region in comparison
2.2 Regional drivers
2.3 Regional challenges

3. Regional market forecast

4. Poland
4.1 Electricity industry structure 
4.2 Smart grid regulatory environment       
4.3 Market forecast   
4.4 Utility activity   

5. Romania
5.1 Electricity industry structure 
5.2 Smart grid regulatory environment       
5.3 Market forecast   
5.4 Utility activity   

6. Turkey
6.1 Electricity industry structure 
6.2 Smart grid regulatory environment
6.3 Market forecast   
6.4 Utility activity   

7. Estonia
7.1 Electricity industry structure 
7.2 Smart grid regulatory environment
7.3 Market forecast   
7.4 Utility activity   

8. Slovenia
8.1 Electricity industry structure 
8.2 Smart grid regulatory environment
8.3 Market forecast   
8.4 Utility activity   

9. Hungary
9.1 Electricity industry structure 
9.2 Smart grid regulatory environment
9.3 Market forecast   
9.4 Utility activity   

10. Bulgaria
10.1 Electricity industry structure 
10.2 Smart grid regulatory environment
10.3 Market forecast   
10.4 Utility activity   

11. Czech Republic
11.1 Electricity industry structure 
11.2 Smart grid regulatory environment
11.3 Market forecast   
11.4 Utility activity   

12. Slovakia
12.1 Electricity industry structure 
12.2 Smart grid regulatory environment
12.3 Market forecast   
12.4 Utility activity   

13. Latvia
13.1 Electricity industry structure 
13.2 Smart grid regulatory environment
13.3 Market forecast   
13.4 Utility activity  

14. Croatia
14.1 Electricity industry structure 
14.2 Smart grid regulatory environment
14.3 Market forecast   
14.4 Utility activity   

15. Lithuania
15.1 Electricity industry structure 
15.2 Smart grid regulatory environment
15.3 Market forecast   
15.4 Utility activity   

16. The rest of the region
16.1 Serbia    
16.2 Montenegro   
16.3 Macedonia   
16.4 Albania    
16.5 Bosnia and Herzegovina 
16.6 Kosovo    

17. Vendor activity  
17.1 Domestic vendors 
17.2 International vendors active in smart grid in CEE & Turkey 

18. Appendix
18.1 Methodology   
18.2 Smart grid overview  
18.3 Global smart grid activity 
18.4 Renewable energy incentives
18.5 List of companies covered in this report 
18.6 List of acronyms   

List of Figures, Boxes, and Tables
Central & Eastern Europe smart grid: key takeaways
AMI deployments at top CEE distribution utilities
AMI deployments at Turkish distribution utilities
Figure 1.1 Changes in smart meter potential in CEE 2015 to 2017 
Table 1.1: Regulatory shifts in CEE countries 
Figure 1.2: Deployment progress in four CEE countries
Figure 1.3: Smart metering progress by Slovenian utilities
Table 1.2: Smart grid activity in CEE (as of September 2017)
Figure 1.4: Czech Smart Grid National Action Plan
Figure 1.5: Major smart grid projects in CEE (as of September 2017)
Table 1.3: Funding for smart grid projects in CEE region
Figure 1.6: Low power wide area network (LPWAN) projects in CEE
Figure 2.1 Emerging markets smart meter potential
Figure 2.2: Per-capita electricity consumption
Figure 2.3: Per-capita CO2 emissions
Figure 2.4: Projected GDP growth (2017 - 2021)
Box 2.1: EU Directive 2009/72/EC
Figure 2.5: CEE compliance with EU smart meter mandates
Table 2.1: European Commission recommendations for smart meter requirements
Table 2.2: EV public charging point targets in EU CEE countries for 2020
Figure 2.6: Electricity prices in emerging markets
Figure 2.7: Electricity prices in Europe
Table 2.3: 20-20-20 targets for CEE countries
Figure 2.8: Renewable sources of energy in CEE
Figure 2.9: Renewable energy promotion instruments in CEE
Figure 2.10: T&D losses in CEE
Table 2.4: Smart grid market drivers and barriers in CEE
Figure 2.11: Average annual GDP growth in CEE
Figure 2.12: Per-capita electricity consumption in CEE
Figure 2.13: Status of planned smart meter rollouts in CEE
Figure 3.1: CEE AMI penetration rate
Figure 3.2: CEE cumulative smart grid forecast by country
Table 3.1: CEE cumulative smart grid forecast data by country
Figure 3.3: CEE cumulative smart grid forecast
Table 3.2: CEE cumulative smart grid forecast data
Figure 3.4: Annual AMI deployments in CEE
Figure 3.5: AMI cost breakdown
Figure 3.6: Per-endpoint smart meter cost estimates
Figure 3.7: AMI forecast by segment
Table 3.3: AMI forecast data by segment
Figure 3.8: DA forecast by segment
Table 3.4: DA forecast data by segment
Figure 3.9: HEM forecast by segment
Table 3.5: HEM forecast data by segment
Figure 3.10: IT forecast by segment
Table 3.6: IT forecast data by segment
Table 4.1: Poland key data
Figure 4.1: Poland AMI penetration rate
Table 4.2: Smart grid indicators in Poland
Figure 4.2: New and decommissioned generation in Poland
Table 4.3: Poland’s smart grid roadmap
Box 4.1: Political risk in Poland
Figure 4.3: Poland smart grid forecast
Table 4.4: Poland smart grid forecast data
Figure 4.4: Poland AMI forecast
Table 4.5: Poland AMI forecast data
Table 4.6: Landis+Gyr Smart Grid Terminal (SGT) shipments
Table 4.7: Confirmed smart meter deployments in Polish utilities
Table 4.8: Latest smart grid projects in Poland
Table 4.9: Additional smart grid projects in Poland
Table 5.1: Romania key data
Figure 5.1: Romania AMI penetration rate
Table 5.2: Smart grid indicators in Romania
Box 5.1: Political risk in Romania
Table 5.3: Romania’s expected smart meter deployment investments
Figure 5.2: CAIDI in select CEE countries
Figure 5.3: Romania smart grid forecast
Table 5.4: Romania smart grid forecast data
Figure 5.4: Romania AMI forecast
Table 5.5: Romania AMI forecast data
Figure 5.5: Enel AMI deployments in Romania
Figure 5.6: Recent and upcoming Romania smart grid projects
Table 5.6: Additional smart grid projects in Romania
Table 6.1: Turkey key data
Figure 6.1: Turkey AMI penetration rate
Table 6.2: Smart grid indicators in Turkey
Table 6.3: Distribution utilities in Turkey
Figure 6.2: AMI deployments at Turkish distribution utilities
Figure 6.3: Amendments to Turkish Distribution System Revenues
Box 6.1: Political risk in Turkey
Figure 6.4: Turkey smart grid forecast
Table 6.4: Turkey smart grid forecast data
Figure 6.5: Turkey AMI forecast
Table 6.5: Turkey AMI forecast data
Figure 6.6: Smart grid activity in Turkey
Table 6.6: AMI installments by distribution utilities in Turkey
Table 7.1: Estonia key data
Figure 7.1: Estonia AMI penetration rate
Table 7.2: Smart grid indicators in Estonia
Box 7.1: Political risk in Estonia
Figure 7.2: Estonia’s E-Mobility operating model
Figure 7.3: Estonia smart grid forecast
Table 7.3: Estonia smart grid forecast data
Figure 7.4: Estonia AMI forecast
Table 7.4: Estonia AMI forecast data
Table 7.5: Additional smart grid projects in Estonia
Table 8.1: Slovenia key data
Figure 8.1: Slovenia AMI penetration rate
Table 8.2: Smart grid indicators in Slovenia
Box 8.1: Political risk in Slovenia
Figure 8.2: Estimated monthly household power bills in CEE
Figure 8.3: Slovenia smart grid forecast
Table 8.3: Slovenia smart grid forecast data
Figure 8.4: Slovenia AMI forecast
Table 8.4: Slovenia AMI forecast data
Figure 8.5: Smart metering progress by Slovenian utilities
Table 8.5: Smart grid priorities in Slovenia
Table 8.6: Additional smart grid projects in Slovenia
Table 9.1: Hungary key data
Figure 9.1: Hungary AMI penetration rate
Table 9.2: Smart grid indicators in Hungary
Box 9.1: Political risk in Hungary
Figure 9.2: Hungary smart meter regulatory progress
Figure 9.3: Public support for smart metering in Hungary (2013)
Figure 9.4: Hungary smart grid forecast
Table 9.3: Hungary smart grid forecast data
Figure 9.5: Hungary AMI forecast
Table 9.4: Hungary AMI forecast data
Table 9.5: Additional smart grid projects in Hungary
Table 10.1: Bulgaria key data
Figure 10.1: Bulgaria AMI penetration rate
Table 10.2: Smart grid indicators in Bulgaria
Box 10.1: Political risk in Bulgaria
Table 10.3: Ease of business rankings
Figure 10.2: Bulgaria smart grid forecast
Table 10.4: Bulgaria smart grid forecast data
Figure 10.3: Bulgaria AMI forecast
Table 10.5: Bulgaria AMI forecast data
Figure 10.4: Bulgaria smart grid activity
Table 10.6: Additional smart grid projects in Bulgaria
Table 11.1: Czech Republic key data
Figure 11.1: Czech Republic AMI penetration rate
Table 11.2: Smart grid indicators in Czech Republic
Box 11.1: Political risk in Czech Republic
Figure 11.2: Czech Smart Grid National Action Plan
Figure 11.3: Planned renewable energy development in Czech Republic
Figure 11.4: Czech Republic smart grid forecast
Table 11.3: Czech Republic smart grid forecast data
Figure 11.5: Czech Republic AMI forecast
Table 11.4: Czech Republic AMI forecast data
Table 11.5: Other CEZ smart grid pilot programs
Table 11.6: Additional smart grid projects in Czech Republic
Table 12.1: Slovakia key data
Figure 12.1: Slovakia AMI penetration rate
Table 12.2: Smart grid indicators in Slovakia
Box 12.1: Political risk in Slovakia
Figure 12.2: Slovakia smart grid forecast
Table 12.3: Slovakia smart grid forecast data
Figure 12.3: Slovakia AMI forecast
Table 12.4: Slovakia AMI forecast data
Table 12.5: Additional smart grid projects in Slovakia
Table 13.1: Latvia key data
Figure 13.1: Latvia AMI penetration rate
Table 13.2: Smart grid indicators in Latvia
Box 13.1: Political risk in Latvia
Figure 13.2: Latvia smart grid forecast
Table 13.3: Latvia smart grid forecast data
Figure 13.3: Latvia AMI forecast
Table 13.4: Latvia AMI forecast data
Figure 13.4: Sadales Tikls deployment schedule
Table 13.5: Additional smart grid projects in Latvia
Table 14.1: Croatia key data
Figure 14.1: Croatia AMI penetration rate
Table 14.2: Smart grid indicators in Croatia
Box 14.1: Political risk in Croatia
Figure 14.2: Croatia smart grid forecast
Table 14.3: Croatia smart grid forecast data
Figure 14.3: Croatia AMI forecast
Table 14.4: Croatia AMI forecast data
Table 14.5: Additional smart grid projects in Croatia
Table 15.1: Lithuania key data
Figure 15.1: Lithuania AMI penetration rate
Table 15.2: Smart grid indicators in Lithuania
Box 15.1: Political risk in Lithuania
Figure 15.2: Lithuania smart grid regulatory development
Table 15.3: Lithuania smart grid forecast data
Figure 15.3: Lithuania smart grid forecast
Table 15.4: Lithuania AMI forecast data
Figure 15.4: Lithuania AMI forecast
Table 15.5: Additional smart grid projects in Lithuania
Table 16.1: Key data for other CEE countries
Table 16.2: EBRD smart grid loans to former Yugoslav countries
Figure 16.1: Other CEE smart grid forecast
Table 16.3: Other CEE smart grid forecast data
Figure 16.2: Other CEE AMI forecast
Table 16.4: Other CEE AMI forecast data
Figure 16.3: Smart grid projects in the rest of the CEE region
Table 16.5 : Key Smart grid projects in other countries
Table 16.6 : Additional smart grid projects in other countries
Figure 17.1: Leading smart grid vendors in CEE
Table 17.1: Other leading smart grid vendors in CEE
Figure 18.1: Smart grid value chain
Figure 18.2: Smart grid model highlighting focus in CEE
Table 18.1: Benefits of AMI in CEE
Table 18.2: Electric vehicle subsidies in CEE
Table 18.3: Demand response options
Figure 18.3: Transmission interconnections in CEE
Figure 18.4: Global smart grid activity
Figure 18.5: Cumulative smart grid investment from 2017 - 2027 by region ($m)
Figure 18.6: Annual smart grid and AMI investment by region in 2027
Table 18.4: Global smart grid drivers and activity
Figure 18.7: Solar and wind installed capacity in CEE (2015)
Table 18.5: Wind and solar feed-in tariffs and premiums in CEE
Table 18.6: Electric vehicle data in Central & Eastern Europe
Table 18.7: Cost comparison in Hungary, Romania, and Slovakia CBAs
Table 18.8: Examples of quantifying smart meter benefits in Slovakia
Table 18.9: Sensitivity analysis for smart metering cost-benefit analyses
Table 18.10: NPV in Hungary, Romania, and Slovakia

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