Middle East and North Africa Telecoms Market: Trends and Forecasts 2017-2022

  • ID: 4401845
  • Report
  • Region: Africa, Middle East, North Africa
  • 52 pages
  • Analysys Mason Group
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"Telecoms service revenue in the Middle East and North Africa will grow at a modest 0.7% CAGR between 2016 and 2022 to reach USD73 billion."

We forecast that 67.1% of total telecoms service revenue in 2022 in the Middle East and North Africa will come from mobile services. In developing markets, there is room for growth in subscriber numbers, while in more mature markets, operators should focus on value growth and investing in the digital economy.

This report and associated data annex provide:

  • a 5-year forecast of more than 180 mobile and fixed KPIs for the Middle East and North Africa region and for twelve key countries
  • an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service, and for key countries
  • an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, which highlights similarities and differences between countries
  • a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile and fixed operators.

Region modelled

  • Middle East and North Africa (MENA)

Countries modelled individually

  • Algeria
  • Egypt
  • Iran
  • Iraq
  • Israel
  • Kuwait
  • Morocco
  • Oman
  • Qatar
  • Saudi Arabia

Connections


Mobile

  • Handset, mobile broadband, M2M
  • Prepaid, contract
  • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G
  • Smartphone, non-smartphone

Fixed

  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up
  • Narrowband voice, VoBB
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other

Fixed and mobile voice traffic

  • Outgoing minutes, MoU

Key performance indicators

Revenue


Mobile

  • Service, retail
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset, mobile broadband, M2M
  • Handset voice, messaging, data

Fixed

  • Service, retail
  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up, BNS
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other

Mobile ARPU

  • SIMs, handset
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset voice, data
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Executive summary

  • The telecoms service market in MENA will grow to USD73 billion in 2022, as competition increases against a backdrop of weaker economic outlook
  • Telecoms retail revenue will increase by USD3.7 billion over 2016-2022, primarily driven by mobile handset data and fixed broadband services
  • In most countries, the fixed market holds greater potential for growth than mobile, where revenue will be either similar to or lower than in 2016
  • Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets
  • Key implications and recommendations for telecoms operators

Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison

  • Geographical coverage: We model twelve telecoms markets, which will account for 88% of telecoms service revenue in MENA in 2022
  • Market context: The twelve modelled countries account for 83.3% of total population and 89.3% of telecoms service revenue in MENA in 2016
  • Revenue and ARPU: Mobile and fixed data services will drive revenue growth in the region, but mobile voice revenue will continue to dominate
  • Mobile penetration: Maturing markets and enforced SIM registration policies have led to a slow down in numbers of new mobile connections
  • Mobile connections: 42% of all connections will be 3G by 2022, while LTE will account for nearly 31% of connections (excluding M2M)
  • Smartphones and LTE: The 4G/5G user base in the region will reach 174.4 million in 2022, with growing opportunities for data monetisation
  • Mobile ARPU: Growth in data and migration to postpaid connections will help to reduce the rate of decline of ARPU
  • Data and revenue by generation: 4G connectivity and digital services will help to offset a slowdown in the growth of legacy services revenue
  • Fixed services: Broadband market will grow in most countries, driven by upgrades to access technology and new infrastructure investments
  • Fixed broadband: Household penetration will grow in all markets, driven by market competition and supported by national broadband plans
  • Key drivers at a glance for each Middle East and North Africa market
  • Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [1]
  • Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [2]

Individual country forecasts

  • Iran: Lifting of sanctions will encourage investment and entry of MVNOs is expected to increase competition in the mobile market
  • Iran - mobile: Adoption of smartphones and 4G services, combined with MVNO entry in 2017, will underpin future growth
  • Iran - fixed: Investment in fibre and TD-LTE infrastructure will help improve service quality and expand fixed broadband reach
  • Kuwait: The market will start contracting after 2018 as the fixed market will not sufficiently grow to offset mobile revenue decline
  • Kuwait - mobile: Revenue growth will be hampered by market saturation and ARPU erosion, despite strong take-up of data
  • Kuwait - fixed: Unclear timelines for fixed infrastructure privatisation and fibre roll-out will constrain market growth
  • Oman: A third MNO will boost mobile connections, but erode market value - the outlook for fixed broadband is more positive
  • Oman - mobile: Strong data revenue growth against the backdrop of increasingly challenging commercial conditions
  • Oman - fixed: Increased competition will lead to voice revenue decline, while broadband will benefit from ambitious roll-out plans
  • Qatar: Economic diversification and infrastructure projects should drive demand for telecoms services if the current crisis is resolved
  • Qatar - mobile: Market still has potential for growth, provided that the regional blockade does not stretch beyond a few months
  • Qatar - fixed: Well-developed fibre infrastructure will create opportunities for upselling broadband and content-based services
  • Saudi Arabia: Market will be driven by data, but growth will be subdued because of regulatory and competitive challenges
  • Saudi Arabia - mobile: Revenue contracted in 2016, but will remain largely stable over the next 5 years, due to data usage
  • Saudi Arabia - fixed: Unified licensing and the government's plan to expand fibre coverage should help drive demand for broadband
  • UAE: A positive overall outlook for revenue growth, despite increased market competition in the fixed and mobile markets
  • UAE-mobile: Steady growth, driven by a healthy economy and operators' investment in infrastructure and digital initiatives
  • UAE-fixed: Investment in infrastructure and capabilities will help operators capture opportunities beyond broadband connectivity

List of figures
Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Middle East and North Africa, 2012-2022
Figure 2: Telecoms retail revenue growth by service type, Middle East and North Africa, 2016-2022
Figure 3: Telecoms retail revenue growth by type and country, Middle East and North Africa, 2016-2022
Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for Middle East and North Africa
Figure 5: 4G/5G share of mobile connections and next-generation access (NGA) share of fixed broadband connections by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2022
Figure 6: Metrics for the 12 countries modelled individually in the Middle East and North Africa, 2016
Figure 7: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, fixed voice and fixed broadband ASPU, and mobile ARPU, Middle East and North Africa, 2012-2022
Figure 8: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Middle East and North Africa, 2016-2022
Figure 9: Connections by type, and growth rates, Middle East and North Africa, 2016-2022
Figure 10: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding M2M), Middle East and North Africa, 2012-2022
Figure 11: Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding M2M), and 3G, 4G and 5G share of connections, Middle East and North Africa, 2012-2022
Figure 12: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and LTE share of total connections (excluding M2M), Middle East and North Africa, 2016 and 2022
Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2012-2022
Figure 14: Mobile service revenue and ARPU by technology, Middle East and North Africa, 2012-2022
Figure 15: Data traffic and revenue per megabyte, Middle East and North Africa, 2012-2022
Figure 16: Fixed broadband connections by type, and fixed voice, IPTV and mobile broadband connections, Middle East and North Africa, 2012-2022
Figure 17: Fixed broadband penetration of households by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2012-2022
Figure 18: Major forecast drivers: current situation (2016) and future trajectory (2017-2022), by country, Middle East and North Africa
Figure 19a: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
Figure 19b: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
Figure 20: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Iran, 2012-2022
Figure 21: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Iran, 2016-2022
Figure 22: Connections by type, and growth rates, Iran, 2016-2022
Figure 23: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Iran, 2012-2022
Figure 24: Mobile ARPU by type and overall mobile ARPU, Iran, 2012-2022
Figure 25: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Iran
Figure 26: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Iran, 2012-2022
Figure 27: Fixed ASPU by service type, Iran, 2012-2022
Figure 28: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Iran
Figure 29: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Kuwait, 2012-2022
Figure 30: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Kuwait, 2016-2022
Figure 31: Connections by type, and growth rates, Kuwait, 2016-2022
Figure 32: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Kuwait, 2012-2022
Figure 33: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Kuwait, 2012-2022
Figure 34: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Kuwait
Figure 35: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Kuwait, 2012-2022
Figure 36: Fixed ASPU by service type, Kuwait, 2012-2022
Figure 37: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Kuwait
Figure 38: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Oman, 2012-2022
Figure 39: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Oman, 2016-2022
Figure 40: Connections by type, and growth rates, Oman, 2016-2022
Figure 41: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Oman, 2012-2022
Figure 42: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Oman, 2012-2022
Figure 43: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Oman
Figure 44: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Oman, 2012-2022
Figure 45: Fixed ASPU by service type, Oman, 2012-2022
Figure 46: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Oman
Figure 47: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Qatar, 2012-2022
Figure 48: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Qatar, 2016-2022
Figure 49: Connections by type, and growth rates, Qatar, 2016-2022
Figure 50: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Qatar, 2012-
Figure 51: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Qatar, 2012-2022
Figure 52: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Qatar
Figure 53: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Qatar 2012-2022
Figure 54: Fixed ASPU by service type, Qatar, 2012-2022
Figure 55: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Qatar
Figure 56: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Saudi Arabia, 2012-2022
Figure 57: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Saudi Arabia, 2016-2022
Figure 58: Connections by type, and growth rates, Saudi Arabia, 2016-2022
Figure 59: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Saudi Arabia, 2012-2022
Figure 60: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Saudi Arabia, 2012-2022
Figure 61: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Saudi Arabia
Figure 62: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Saudi Arabia, 2012-2022
Figure 63: Fixed ASPU by service type, Saudi Arabia, 2012-2022
Figure 64: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Saudi Arabia
Figure 65: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), UAE, 2012-2022
Figure 66: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, UAE, 2016-2022
Figure 67: Connections by type, and growth rates, UAE, 2016-2022
Figure 68: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, UAE, 2012-2022
Figure 69: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, UAE, 2012-2022
Figure 70: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, UAE
Figure 71: Fixed penetration rates by service type, UAE, 2012-2022
Figure 72: Fixed ASPU by service type, UAE, 2012-2022
Figure 73: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, UAE

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