Limited production due to major productivity constraints, owing to the unavailability of good quality seeds and proper irrigation, and lack of linkages between formal and informal seed sector (as in lack of proper seed regulation and inspection, and lack of information flow to farmers about improved seeds and production techniques) contribute the most toward restraining the growth of the agriculture sector in Uganda. The informal seed system controls more than 80% of the market, and is highly unregulated and characterized by illicit seed trade.
Cereals is the dominant crop type with maize, finger millet, and grain sorghum being the top 3 cereal crops. In terms of production volumes, rice, maize, and potatoes have been the crops recording the highest growth, mainly because of area expansion. Production of maize and rice is expected to further grow after the introduction of drought-resistant seed varieties in the market. Growth in crop production has dwindled lately, as compared to late 2000s, but is expected to record a higher CAGR than that of late 2000s, during the period 2017-2021.
The export sector of Uganda is poorly funded, involving small and under-capitalized companies that cannot support farmers. Moreover, exports are majorly limited to some European countries, and nearby African countries like Kenya, Rwanda, Democratic Republic of Congo, and South Sudan. Maize, beans, pulses, fruits, oilseeds, and coffee are the predominant export crops. Coffee exports have been increasing steadily, and with the increased focus on Arabica coffee, which is gaining popularity quickly, the exports are poised to grow further. The imports are not substantial; wheat and rice are imported mainly to cater to the urban population.
Drivers for growth of food production in Uganda:
Rapidly increasing population growth in East Africa - Uganda is the 3rd fastest growing country in the world in terms of population. Although Uganda’s food production may just suffice the needs of its domestic population, it may not be able to cater to the nearby East African nations facing food shortage, owing to the rapid population growth and lower production.
Political stability, and sustained yearly economic growth of around 7%.
Agricultural income growth - In 2012, 1 in four farmers was using fertilizer for their crops, while 1 in 10 was using pesticides. This situation is improving especially due to the reduction in poverty levels, and comparatively higher purchasing power in recent times
Urbanization and rise in levels of education - This might result in more use of agricultural inputs by poor agricultural households, which were reluctant of the same, despite being aware of their numerous advantages. Moreover, urbanization leads to commercialization, and people may not be deterred from producing just for themselves.
Restraints for growth of food production in Uganda:
Low agricultural productivity- High incidence of pests, low quality seeds, less number of skilled agronomists, and flawed supply chain have led to low productivity levels in crop production.
Lack of linkages between research and seed supply system - There is inadequate capacity for both human resource and infrastructure, to cope with the rapidly expanding seed industry, and to carry out effective seed inspection and certification in the country. Information flow to farmers regarding new improved seeds and production techniques is poor as well. Adoption rate of improved seeds by farmers is estimated to be only 10%.
Large presence of counterfeit seeds - Inadequate inspection and monitoring of seed dealers, and lack of operating guidelines have greatly contributed to an increase in the presence of unscrupulous seed dealers, and hence, counterfeit seeds.
Limited or non-existent irrigation - The recent droughts have further emphasized the need to have better irrigation facilities throughout the country.
Difficulty to access credit by farmers - There are no incentives provided by the government (for example, subsidies, etc.) to the poor agricultural households, which encourage them to resort to the informal seed sector for supply.
Weak farmers’ associations - The presence of substantial and notable number of farmers’ associations might have had a significant impact in terms of increasing the awareness about new and improved seeds amongst farmers, thereby boosting the adoption rate from the current value of 10%.
Poor infrastructure, especially roads, significantly increase the transportation costs and durations.
What the Report Offers:
The study identifies the agriculture scenario of Uganda, and estimates the growth of its crop production and agricultural sector in Uganda, as a whole.
The report discusses production, consumption, import and export of major crops grown in the country, along with recent market trends, government regulations, growth forecast, key seed companies, upcoming firms and projects, etc.
The report analyzes economic and social conditions of Uganda and provides the forecast for the production data of major crops relevant to Ugandan agriculture, in addition to export and import prospects over the forecast period.
The study clarifies that, currently, Uganda is not facing an acute food shortage or crop production crisis. However, a rapidly increasing demand for food, both in Uganda and other East African countries, warrants much better efforts, so as to increase productivity levels and transparency.
Solar Powered Pumps - The President of Uganda has undertaken initiatives and urged the country’s research bodies to develop solar powered pumps, to decrease dependency on diesel pumps and enable every agricultural household to take advantage of irrigation.
Agriculture Cluster Development Project - This project aims to increase farm productivity, production, and marketable volumes of specified agro-commodities in specified geographical clusters. Market linkages, post-harvest storage, handling, and value-addition are also expected to improve significantly.
1.1 Market Definition
1.2 Key Findings of the Study
2. Research Scope and Methodology
2.1 Study Deliverables
2.2 Market Segmentation
2.3 Study Assumptions
2.4 Research Methodology
3. Market Dynamics
3.1.1 Rapidly Expanding Population and Food Shortage in Nearby East African Countries
3.1.2 Political Stability and Sustained Economic Growth of Around 7%
3.2.1 Low Agricultural Productivity Owing to Pests and Low Adoption Rates of Improved Quality Seeds
3.2.2 Lack of Linkages Between Formal and Informal Seed Sectors
3.2.3 Significant Presence of Counterfeit Seeds
4. Industry Analysis
4.1 Porter's Five Forces Analysis
4.1.1 Bargaining Powers of Buyers
4.1.2 Bargaining Powers of Suppliers
4.1.3 Threat of New Entrants
4.1.4 Threat from Substitute products
4.1.5 Competition Rivalry
5. Market Segmentation
5.1 Food Crops / Cereals
5.1.1 Market Size (in USD million)
5.1.2 Domestic Production Overview
5.1.3 Domestic Consumption Overview
5.1.4 Import Value and Volume
5.1.5 Export Value and Volume
5.2.1 Market Size (in USD million)
5.2.2 Domestic Production Overview
5.2.3 Domestic Consumption Overview
5.2.4 Import Value and Volume
5.2.5 Export Value and Volume
5.3.1 Market Size (in USD million)
5.3.2 Domestic Production Overview
5.3.3 Domestic Consumption Overview
5.3.4 Import Value and Volume
5.3.5 Export Value and Volume
5.4 Oil Seeds
5.4.1 Market Size (in USD million)
5.4.2 Domestic Production Overview
5.4.3 Domestic Consumption Overview
5.4.4 Import Value and Volume
5.4.5 Export Value and Volume
5.5 Cash Crops
5.5.1 Market Size (in USD million)
5.5.2 Domestic Production Overview
5.5.3 Domestic Consumption Overview
5.5.4 Import Value and Volume
5.5.5 Export Value and Volume
6. Regional Analysis
6.1 PESTLE Analysis
6.2 Supply Chain Analysis
6.3 Government Policies
7. Competitive Analysis
7.1 Distribution Network & Retail Analysis
7.2 Profile of Key Players