Mobile Services in the Middle East and North Africa: Trends and Forecasts 2017–2022

  • ID: 4413136
  • Report
  • Region: Africa, Middle East, North Africa
  • 28 pages
  • Analysys Mason Group
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67.1% of Total Telecoms Service Revenue in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) in 2022 will Come from Mobile Services

"Smartphone adoption remains strong across the Middle East and North Africa and is helping to increase public awareness and use of LTE, particularly in Gulf Cooperation Council countries that are already deploying pre-5G technologies."

Its expected that 67.1% of total telecoms service revenue in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) in 2022 will come from mobile services. In this report, it examines key trends and drivers and provide comprehensive mobile telecoms market forecasts for the MENA region and for 12 individually modelled countries, including country views for Iran, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and UAE.

This report provides:

  • a 5-year forecast of 127 mobile KPIs for the MENA region and for 12 key countries
  • an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile service, and for six key countries
  • an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, highlighting similarities and differences between countries
  • a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile operators.

Geographical coverage

Countries modelled individually

  •     Algeria
  •     Egypt
  •     Iran
  •     Iraq
  •     Israel
  •     Kuwait
  •     Morocco
  •     Oman
  •     Qatar
  •     Saudi Arabia
  •     Tunisia
  •     United Arab Emirates (UAE)

Detailed country commentary

  •     Iran
  •     Kuwait
  •     Oman
  •     Qatar
  •     Saudi Arabia
  •     United Arab Emirates (UAE)

Data coverage

Mobile connections

  •     Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
  •     Prepaid, contract
  •     2G, 3G, 4G, 5G
  •     Smartphone, non-smartphone

Mobile revenue 

  •     Service, retail
  •     Prepaid, contract
  •     Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
  •     Handset voice, messaging, data

Mobile ARPU

  •     SIMs, handset
  •     Prepaid, contract
  •     Handset voice, data

Voice traffic

  •     Outgoing minutes, MoU

WHO SHOULD READ THIS REPORT

  • Market intelligence, strategy and project managers at mobile operators in MENA.
  • Regulatory bodies in MENA.
  • Financial institutions that directly invest in the telecoms sector in the region, or advise others that do so.
  • Press and media bodies that need a foundation of knowledge of the MENA mobile telecoms market.
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Chapter No:

5. Executive summary
6. Service revenue in MENA will grow to USD73 billion in 2022, as competition increases despite a weaker economic outlook
7. Worldwide trends
8. Worldwide: Mobile service revenue will continue to increase during the forecast period, reaching USD863 billion in 2022
9. Regional trends
10. Mobile data services will drive revenue growth, but mobile voice revenue will continue to dominate in MENA
11. Maturing markets and enforced SIM registration policies have led to a slow down in numbers of new mobile connections
12. 42% of all connections will be 3G by 2022, while LTE will account for nearly 31% of connections (excluding M2M)
13. The 4G/5G user base in the region will reach 174.4 million in 2022, with growing opportunities for data monetisation
14. Growth in data and migration to postpaid connections will help to reduce the rate of decline of ARPU
15. 4G connectivity and digital services will help to offset a slowdown in the growth of legacy services revenue
16. Country-level trends
17. Iran: Adoption of smartphones and 4G services, combined with MVNO entry in 2017, will underpin future growth
18. Kuwait: Revenue growth will be hampered by market saturation and ARPU erosion, despite strong take-up of data
19. Oman: Data revenue will grow strongly against the backdrop of increasingly challenging commercial conditions
20. Qatar: The market still has potential for growth, provided that the regional blockade does not stretch beyond a few months
21. Saudi Arabia: Revenue contracted in 2016, but will remain largely stable over the next 5 years, due to data usage
22. UAE: Steady growth, driven by a healthy economy and operators’ investment in infrastructure and digital initiatives

List of figures
Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Middle East and North Africa, 2012–2022
Figure 2: Mobile service revenue in the Middle East and North Africa and worldwide, USD billions (2016), 2012–2022
Figure 3: Telecoms retail revenue by mobile service type, and mobile ARPU, Middle East and North Africa, 2012–2022
Figure 4: Telecoms retail revenue by mobile service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Middle East and North Africa, 2016–2022
Figure 5: Connections by type, and growth rates, Middle East and North Africa, 2016–2022
Figure 6: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding M2M), Middle  East and North Africa, 2012–2022
Figure 7: Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding M2M), and 3G, 4G and 5G share of connections, Middle East and North Africa, 2012– 2022
Figure 8: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and LTE share of total connections (excluding M2M), Middle East and North Africa, 2016 and 2022
Figure 9: Mobile ARPU by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2012–2022
Figure 10: Mobile service revenue and ARPU by technology, Middle East and North Africa, 2012–2022
Figure 11: Data traffic and revenue per megabyte, Middle East and North Africa, 2012–2022
Figure 12: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Iran, 2012–2022
Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by type and overall mobile ARPU, Iran, 2012–2022
Figure 14: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Iran
Figure 15: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Kuwait, 2012–2022
Figure 16: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Kuwait, 2012–2022
Figure 17: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Kuwait
Figure 18: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Oman, 2012–2022
Figure 19: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Oman, 2012–2022
Figure 20: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Oman
Figure 21: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Qatar, 2012–2022
Figure 22: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Qatar, 2012–2022
Figure 23: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Qatar
Figure 24: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Saudi Arabia, 2012–2022
Figure 25: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Saudi Arabia, 2012–2022
Figure 26: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Saudi Arabia
Figure 27: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, UAE, 2012–2022
Figure 28: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, UAE, 2012–2022
Figure 29: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, UAE

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