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Shire Company Analysis

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    Company Profile

  • 64 Pages
  • August 2018
  • Citeline
  • ID: 4421377
The author explores Shire’s prescription pharmaceutical performance and outlook over 2017–27. The author analyses include quarterly earnings coverage and provide timely updates to company product forecasts The full company profile encompasses analysis on corporate strategy, portfolio analysis, pipeline potential, and financial performance.

  • Overview – Shire is set to maintain its slow growth rate as its acquired rare diseases portfolio faces fierce branded competition.

  • Key themes – [1] The author expects Shire’s prescription pharmaceutical sales to grow at a 1.0% CAGR between 2017–27 [2] Shire’s CNS portfolio will increase to $3.6bn in 2022, but then fall sharply to $1.3bn in 2027 due to generic erosion of Vyvanse sales in the US [3] Shire’s marketed rare diseases products will be extremely important to maintaining sales growth, adding over $2.3bn out to 2027 [4] The hematology portfolio will decline at a -1.5% CAGR between 2017–27 as Shire’s leading hemophilia A products lose market share under fierce competition from Roche’s recently launched Hemlibra [5] Shire’s burgeoning ophthalmology portfolio, led by Xiidra, will add $1.6bn to its top line over the forecast period.

  • Q2 2018 – Shire’s earnings edge higher after agreeing to sale to Takeda.

  • Out to 2022 – Shire’s acquired rare diseases products and its CNS franchise will drive sales to a mid-term peak of $16.6bn in 2022.

  • Out to 2027 – The company will add $1.6bn out to 2027 owing to growth in its rare diseases portfolio, and the launch of Xiidra.

  • Pipeline – Shire’s pipeline is focused on rare diseases, with the highlight being Takhzyro, which is set to reach $1.9bn by 2027.

  • Lifecycle – Shire’s launch portfolio will offset its expiry portfolio as Takhzyro’s launch is set to mitigate the 2023 patent expiry of Vyvanse.

  • Major events – Shire’s hematology portfolio will be impacted by rival Hemlibra’s ongoing clinical development success and launch, as Shire’s management team accepts a $65bn takeover bid from Takeda.

Model updates
  • Revised HAE franchise sales downwards.

  • Revised hematology product sales downwards.

  • Revised immunology product sales upwards.

  • Lanadelumab name changed to Takhzyro.

  • Added Takhzyro launch.

  • Delayed Xiidra launch in Europe to Q1 2020.

Analysis structure
Explore and visualize revenue dynamics in Shire’s portfolio out to 2027 using 10-year in-house sales forecastssegmented by the following sections.

Quarterly Review
What were the major highlights from Shire’s latest earnings call and quarterly performance?

Strategy Analysis
  • How is Shire strategically poised out to 2027?

  • What are Shire’s key strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats?

  • What are Shire’s key catal.during the current year?

Portfolio Analysis
  • Why will specific therapy areas experience the largest growth and decline?

  • What are the detailed competitive dynamics at play in Shire’s important therapeutic markets?

  • How is Shire adapting strategically to internal and external headwinds in preceding quarters?

Facts and Figures
  • What is Shire’s forecasted sales performance out to 2027?

  • What is the revenue trajectory of Shire’s current top 10 products out to 2027?

  • Which therapy areas will experience the largest growth and decline?

  • What are the portfolio weightings of Shire based on the lifecycle of its products?

Table of Contents

Model updates
Analysis structure
Q2 2018 REVIEW
Shire’s earnings edge higher after agreeing to sale to Takeda
Immunology sales drive
Hematology business remains solid for now
Neuroscience and internal medicine business
Oncology and ophthalmology progress
Q1 2018 REVIEW
Shire reports a solid start to 2018 amid talk of a takeover by Takeda
$65bn takeover by Takeda
Key Q1 2018 events
Q4 2017 REVIEW
Shire reports 8% product revenue growth in 2017
Immunology business
Cinryze revenues rebound as Shire mitigates HAE headwinds
AB Biosciences deal to boost immunoglobin R&D
SHP609 failure in Hunter syndrome
Neuroscience business
Hematology business
Internal medicines
Ophthalmology business
Key catalysts for 2018
Q3 2017 REVIEW
Cinryze supply issues hold Shire to flat revenues
Neuroscience business
Q3 2017 events
Acquisitions over 2015–16
2018 will continue to focus on execution restructure
Big increase in net debt is not a large concern
Takeda takeover
Shire’s SWOT analysis
Shire’s key events and catalysts
Q2 2018
Shire’s prescription pharma sales outlook
Shire’s regional pharma sales outlook
Shire’s therapy area dynamics
Shire’s growth drivers and resistors
Shire’s portfolio lifecycle analysis
Shire’s pipeline analysis
Shire’s M&A strategy and history
Figure 1: Shire’s prescription pharmaceutical sales ($m) and growth rate (%), 2014–27
Figure 2: Shire’s therapy area dynamics, 2017–27
Figure 3: Shire’s launch/core/expiry portfolio configuration, 2017–27
Figure 4: Shire’s pipeline overview
Table 1: Shire’s historical net debt to EBITDA comparison
Table 2: Shire’s sales by therapy area ($m), 2017–27
Table 3: Shire’s prescription pharmaceutical sales by region ($m), 2017–27
Table 4: Shire’s sales by therapy area ($m), 2017–27
Table 5: Shire’s central nervous system portfolio sales, by product ($m), 2017–27
Table 6: Shire’s rare diseases portfolio sales, by product ($m), 2017–27
Table 7: Shire’s hematology portfolio sales, by product ($m), 2017–27
Table 8: Shire’s ophthalmology portfolio sales, by product ($m), 2017–27
Table 9: Shire’s key products, 2017–27
Table 10: Shire’s sales by launch, core, and expiry portfolio ($m), 2017–27
Table 11: Shire’s launch portfolio sales, by product ($m), 2017–27
Table 12: Shire’s key merger and acquisition deals, 2001–18