China B2C E-Commerce Sales Forecasts: 2017 to 2021

  • ID: 4426082
  • Report
  • Region: China
  • 33 pages
  • yStats GmbH & Co. KG
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until Sep 30th 2018
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Online Retail Sales in China Will Top One Trillion Euros per Year says Latest Report

FEATURED COMPANIES

  • Alibaba Group
  • Amazon.com Inc
  • Apple Inc
  • Facebook Inc
  • Google LLC
  • PayPal Holdings Inc
  • MORE

China is the world’s largest B2C E-Commerce market, accounting for a double-digit share of global online sales. More than half a billion people shop online in China, with the E-Commerce share of total retail sales reaching twice as high as the global average. Within the next few years, China is expected to set a new record by generating E-Commerce sales of over 1 trillion Euros, including B2C and C2C online retail. Five out of six original sources cited in this publication concur with this prediction, although disagree on the specific year when this milestone will be reached. Another common projection is the decline of year-on-year growth rates over the forecast period compared to the previous years due to increased maturity of the market, although the compound annual growth rate in the period from 2016 to 2021 is still projected to remain in the double-digits.

Among the key drivers of the online retail sales growth in China is the rise of mobile shopping as the main mode of E-Commerce. In the first half of 2017, M-Commerce accounted for more than three-quarters of online retail sales in China, according to several market estimates cited in the report. The convenience of mobile shopping is expected to further spur the overall E-Commerce growth over the forecast period. Another major growth driver is the proliferation of online shopping in smaller cities and rural areas. Between 2015 and 2016, E-Commerce sales in rural China more than doubled, but still accounted for less than one-fifth of the nationwide online retail sales. Considering the significant proportion of China’s population living in rural areas, higher Internet and online shopper penetration rates combined with the expansion of delivery coverage of the major market players is projected to contribute to the E-Commerce boom.

Questions Answered in this Report:

  • How large is China’s online retail market predicted to be by 2021?
  • What growth rates are expected for retail E-Commerce sales in China through 2021?
  • What are the main E-Commerce growth drivers in China?
  • How high China’s share of global online sales in 2016 and what is the forecast for 2021?
  • Which percentage of retail E-Commerce sales in China stems from mobile in 2017?

Key Findings:

China is the world’s largest B2C E-Commerce market, accounting for a double-digit share of global online sales. More than half a billion people shop online in China, with the ECommerce share of total retail sales reaching twice as high as the global  average.  Within the next few years, China is expected to set a new record by generating E-Commerce sales of over 1 trillion Euros, including B2C and C2C online retail. Five out of six original sources cited in the publication concur with this prediction, although disagree on the specific year when this milestone will be reached. Another common projection is the decline of year-on-year growth rates over the forecast period compared to the previous years due to increased maturity of the market, although the compound annual growth rate in the  period from 2016 to 2021 is still projected to remain in the double-digits.  

Among the key drivers of the online retail sales growth in China is the rise of mobile  shopping as the main mode of E-Commerce. In the first half of 2017, M-Commerce accounted for more than three-quarters of online retail sales in China, according to several market estimates cited in the report. The convenience of mobile shopping is expected to further spur the overall E-Commerce growth over the forecast period. Another major growth driver is the proliferation of online shopping in smaller cities and rural areas.  Between 2015 and 2016, E-Commerce sales in rural China more than doubled, but still  accounted for less than one-fifth of the nationwide online retail sales. Considering the significant proportion of China’s population living in rural areas, higher Internet and online  shopper penetration rates combined with the expansion of delivery coverage of the major market players is projected to contribute to the E-Commerce boom.

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FEATURED COMPANIES

  • Alibaba Group
  • Amazon.com Inc
  • Apple Inc
  • Facebook Inc
  • Google LLC
  • PayPal Holdings Inc
  • MORE

1. Management Summary

2. Market Overview and International Comparisons
B2C E-Commerce Market Overview, November 2017
China’s Share of Global E-Commerce Sales, by Two Comparative Estimates, 2016 & 2021f
China’s B2C E-Commerce Sales, in USD billion, B2C E-Commerce Share of Total Retail Sales, in %, and CAGR, in %, Compared to Global Regions and Worldwide, 2011, 2016 & 2021f
Number of Online Shoppers, in millions, and Penetration, in % of Internet Users, 2012 - 2016 & H1 2017
Product Categories Purchased Online, via Mobile Apps and in Physical Stores, in % of Consumers, 2016
Breakdown of Payment Methods Used in E-Commerce, in % of Online Shoppers, 2016
M-Commerce Sales, in CNY trillion and in % of Total Retail E-Commerce Sales, by Two Comparative Estimates, Q1 2016 - Q2 2017
Top 5 Market Players by Share of B2C E-Commerce GMV, in %, H1 2017

3. Overview of Sales and Shares Forecasts
Retail E-Commerce Sales (incl. B2C and C2C), in USD billion, and CAGR, in %, by Four Comparative Estimates, 2016 – 2021f
Retail E-Commerce Sales (incl. B2C and C2C), in CNY billion, and CAGR, in %, by Four Comparative Estimates, 2014 – 2019f
E-Commerce Share of Total Retail Sales, in %, by Six Comparative Estimates, 2014 - 2021f
Breakdown of Retail E-Commerce Sales by B2C and C2C, in %, 2012 – 2019f

4. Sales Forecasts
Retail E-Commerce Sales (incl. B2C and C2C), in USD billion, and Year-on-Year Change, in %, 2016 – 2021f
B2C E-Commerce Sales, in USD billion, 2016 & 2021f, and CAGR, in %, 2016 - 2021f
Retail E-Commerce Sales (incl. B2C and C2C), in USD billion, 2016 & 2021f, and CAGR, in %, 2016 – 2021f
Retail E-Commerce Sales (incl. B2C and C2C), in USD billion, 2016 & 2020f, and CAGR, in %, 2016 – 2020f
Retail E-Commerce Sales (incl. B2C and C2C), in CNY trillion, and Year-on-Year Change, in %, 2014 – 2019f
B2C E-Commerce Sales, in CNY trillion, and Year-on-Year Change, in %, 2014 – 2019f
Retail E-Commerce Sales (incl. B2C and C2C), in CNY billion, and Year-on-Year Change, in %, 2014 – 2019f
Retail E-Commerce Sales (incl. B2C and C2C), in CNY trillion, and Year-on-Year Change, in %, 2014 – 2017f

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FEATURED COMPANIES

  • Alibaba Group
  • Amazon.com Inc
  • Apple Inc
  • Facebook Inc
  • Google LLC
  • PayPal Holdings Inc
  • MORE

The report “China B2C E-Commerce Sales Forecasts: 2017 to 2021” gathers forecasts from several original sources to predict that within a few years, online retail sales in China will reach over 1 trillion Euros, as the country continues to show double-digit growth rates.
 
Already the global leader in online retail, accounting for close to one third of worldwide B2C E-Commerce sales by itself, the huge online shopping population of over 500M results in an E-Commerce share of total retail sales two times higher than the global mean. Reliable sources cited in the publication forecast that online sales in China will maintain double digit growth rates in online sales through 2021 and at some point in the next four years will reach the 1 trillion Euro milestone in annual sales, when considering C2C as well as B2C ECommerce.

Two factors contribute to the continued robust growth of E-Commerce in China. The spread of Internet connectivity to rural areas of the country and the readiness of this previously untapped population to join the online shopping frenzy is one of the drivers of ongoing online retail proliferation. Another major push for the expansion of E-Commerce in China is mobile shopping, according to the report.  MCommerce already composes about three fourths of online retail sales in China and the spread of smartphones with the convenience of  handheld shopping continues to drive sales growth. 

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  • Alibaba Group
  • Amazon.com Inc
  • Apple Inc
  • Facebook Inc
  • Google LLC
  • PayPal Holdings Inc
  • Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd
  • Wal-Mart Stores Inc.
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