Global Telecoms Market: Trends and Forecasts 2017–2022

  • ID: 4426871
  • Report
  • Region: Global
  • 40 pages
  • Analysys Mason Group
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"Operators will face diverse challenges because the regions are so different in terms of levels of network coverage and service adoption, but telecoms service revenue worldwide will increase."

Mobile competition will boost the availability and affordability of mobile services for the mass market worldwide. Increases in data usage and mobile handset revenue will be driven by the growing number of smartphones, wider 4G coverage, OTT services and demand for media streaming. We expect that mobile handset data will account for 36% of total retail telecoms revenue worldwide by 2022.

This report and data annex provide:

  • a 5-year forecast of more than 180 mobile and fixed KPIs, worldwide and for 8 regions
  • an analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service in each region, and a worldwide summary
  • an overview of operator strategies and region-specific topics, in order to highlight similarities and differences by means of a cross-region comparison
  • a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile and fixed operators.

Geographical coverage

Regions modelled

  • Central and Eastern Europe (CEE)
  • Developed Asia–Pacific (DVAP)
  • Emerging Asia–Pacific (EMAP)
  • Latin America (LATAM)
  • Middle East and North Africa (MENA)
  • North America (NA)
  • Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)
  • Western Europe (WE)

Key performance indicators         

Connections

Mobile

  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
  • Prepaid, contract
  • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G
  • Smartphone,
  • non-smartphone

Fixed

  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up
  • Narrowband voice, VoBB
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other

Fixed and mobile voice traffic

  • Outgoing minutes, MoU

Revenue

Mobile

  • Service, retail
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
  • Handset voice, messaging, data

Fixed

  • Service, retail
  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up, BNS
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other

Mobile ARPU

  • SIMs, handset
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset voice, data
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Chapter No.
8. Executive summary
9. Mobile handset data and NGA broadband services will drive telecoms retail revenue growth worldwide
10. Telecoms retail revenue will increase worldwide driven by data revenue despite heavy declines in voice
11. Worldwide fixed and mobile revenue will increase, driven mostly by network investments and upgrades
12. Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets
13. Key implications and recommendations for telecoms operators
14. Global forecasts and regional comparison
15. Geographical coverage: NA and DVAP will lead in 4G/5G penetration, while EMAP will have highest NGA share of FBB connections in 2022
16. Market context: GDP per capita is a key factor in determining service availability and retail spending on telecommunication services worldwide
17. Revenue and ARPU: Fixed broadband ASPU and mobile ARPU decline will slow down due to increasing service take-up and revenue growth
18. Mobile penetration: Mobile penetration will increase to 103% worldwide by 2022 driven mainly by fast service take-up in EMAP and SSA
19. Mobile connections: 4G’s share of connections worldwide will increase from 28% in 2016 to 58% in 2022
20. Smartphones and LTE: Smartphone penetration worldwide will increase to 79% by 2022
21. Mobile broadband: Mobile broadband connections will account for 30% of total broadband connections worldwide
22. Mobile ARPU: Data ARPU increase will help to slow down the worldwide ARPU decline trend
23. Data and revenue by generation: Data traffic per connection will increase fivefold during the forecast period
24. Fixed services: FTTP/B will account for more than half of the total fixed broadband connections by 2019
25. Fixed broadband: More than 50% of households worldwide will have fixed broadband access by 2022
26. Regional forecasts
27. CEE: Increasing service revenue in the region will be driven primarily by retail revenue from mobile handset data
28. CEE – mobile: Smartphones’ share of handsets will increase in line with 4G penetration, driving growth in mobile data ARPU
29. CEE – fixed: Fixed telecoms operators will focus on NGA network deployment and increasing FBB coverage of households
30. DVAP: Mobile handset data and FBB will continue to drive revenue growth but the growth rate will slow down
31. DVAP – mobile: Smartphones’ share of handsets reached 71% in 2016 and will surpass 90% in 2022
32. DVAP – fixed: FTTP/B will continue to be the dominant broadband technology and will lead the growth in the DVAP region
33. EMAP: Mobile data will be a key driver of telecoms retail revenue growth supported by growing FBB take-up
34. EMAP – mobile: Smartphones and 4G connections growth will continue throughout the forecast period
35. EMAP – fixed: NGA networks and multi-play bundles will drive increase in fixed broadband connections
36. LATAM: Data demand will drive revenue growth in LATAM, but at a slowing pace
37. LATAM – mobile: Growth in the number of 4G connections will be quick, but
3G will continue to dominate in the region
38. LATAM – fixed: FBB penetration growth will slow down due to economic conditions
39. MENA: Mobile and fixed data services will drive revenue growth in the region but mobile voice revenue will continue to dominate
40. MENA – mobile: Increasing saturation will led to a slowdown in numbers of new mobile connections
41. MENA – fixed: Broadband penetration will increase in most countries driven by new infrastructure investments
42. NA: Contrasting trends in fixed and mobile markets combine for a stagnant revenue forecast
43. NA – mobile: User base growth will be slow due to market maturity
44. NA – fixed: Penetration is approaching saturation, but lack of competition and upselling will prevent ARPU decline
45. SSA: Telecoms retail revenue will reach USD43 billion in 2022, and mobile will account for 86% of that total
46. SSA – mobile: Mobile penetration will increase driven by improved coverage and competition, but growth will slow down
47. SSA – fixed: Broadband penetration will increase significantly, albeit from a small base
48. WE: Growing broadband ASPU will limit revenue decline, but strong growth is unlikely
49. WE – mobile: User bases will be stagnant, but additional SIMs bundled in contracts will limit decline
50. WE – fixed: The FTTP/B user base will nearly triple between 2016 and 2022, but VDSL will be the leading access technology
51. About the author

List of Figures
Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), worldwide, 2012–2022
Figure 2: Telecoms retail revenue growth by service type, worldwide, 2016– 2022
Figure 3: Telecoms retail revenue growth by type and country, worldwide,  2016–2022
Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for worldwide
Figure 5: 4G/5G share of mobile connections and NGA share of fixed  broadband connections by region, worldwide, 2022
Figure 6: Metrics for the 8 regions modelled individually, 2016
Figure 7: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, fixed voice and fixed  broadband ASPU, and mobile ARPU, worldwide, 2012–2022
Figure 8: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and  growth rates, worldwide, 2016–2022
Figure 9: Connections by type, and growth rates, worldwide, 2016–2022
Figure 10: Active mobile SIM penetration by region (excluding M2M), worldwide,  2012–2022
Figure 11: Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding M2M), and  3G, 4G and 5G’s share of connections, worldwide, 2012–2022 
Figure 12: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and 4G/5G’s share of  total connections (excluding M2M), worldwide, 2016 and 2022
Figure 13: Mobile broadband connections by screen size and technology,  worldwide, 2012–2022
Figure 14: Mobile ARPU by country, worldwide, 2012–2022
Figure 15: Mobile service revenue and ARPU by technology, worldwide, 2012– 2022
Figure 16: Data traffic and revenue per megabyte, worldwide, 2012–2022
Figure 17: Fixed broadband connections by type, and fixed voice, IPTV and  mobile broadband connections, worldwide, 2012–2022
Figure 18: Fixed broadband penetration of households by country, worldwide,  2012–2022
Figure 19: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue  (retail and wholesale), CEE, 2012–2022
Figure 20: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and  growth rates, CEE, 2016–2022
Figure 21: Connections by type, and growth rates, CEE, 2016–2022
Figure 22: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, CEE, 2012–2022
Figure 23: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, CEE, 2012–2022
Figure 24: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, CEE
Figure 25: Fixed penetration rates by service type, CEE, 2012–2022
Figure 26: Fixed ASPU by service type, CEE, 2012–2022
Figure 27: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, CEE
Figure 28: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue  (retail and wholesale), DVAP, 2012–2022
Figure 29: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, DVAP, 2016–2022
Figure 30: Connections by type, and growth rates, DVAP, 2016–2022
Figure 31: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, DVAP, 2012– 2022
Figure 32: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, DVAP, 2012–2022
Figure 33: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, DVAP
Figure 34: Fixed penetration rates by service type, DVAP, 2012–2022
Figure 35: Fixed ASPU by service type, DVAP, 2012–2022
Figure 36: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, DVAP
Figure 37: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue  (retail and wholesale), EMAP, 2012–2022
Figure 38: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and  growth rates, EMAP, 2016–2022
Figure 39: Connections by type, and growth rates, EMAP, 2016–2022
Figure 40: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, EMAP, 2012– 2022
Figure 41: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, EMAP, 2012–2022
Figure 42: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, EMAP
Figure 43: Fixed penetration rates by service type, EMAP, 2012–2022 
Figure 44: Fixed ASPU by service type, EMAP, 2012–2022
Figure 45: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, EMAP
Figure 46: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue  (retail and wholesale), LATAM, 2012–2022
Figure 47: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and  growth rates, LATAM 2016–2022
Figure 48: Connections by type, and growth rates, LATAM, 2016–2022
Figure 49: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, LATAM, 2012– 2022
Figure 50: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, LATAM, 2012–2022
Figure 51: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, LATAM
Figure 52: Fixed penetration rates by service type, LATAM, 2012–2022
Figure 53: Fixed ASPU by service type, LATAM, 2012–2022
Figure 54: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, LATAM
Figure 55: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue  (retail and wholesale), MENA, 2012–2022
Figure 56: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and  growth rates, MENA, 2016–2022
Figure 57: Connections by type, and growth rates, MENA, 2016–2022
Figure 58: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, MENA, 2012–2022
Figure 59: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, MENA, 2012–2022
Figure 60: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, MENA
Figure 61: Fixed penetration rates by service type, MENA, 2012–2022 
Figure 62: Fixed ASPU by service type, MENA, 2012–2022
Figure 63: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, MENA
Figure 64: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue  (retail and wholesale), NA, 2012–2022
Figure 65: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and  growth rates, NA, 2016–2022
Figure 66: Connections by type, and growth rates, NA, 2016–2022
Figure 67: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, NA, 2012–2022
Figure 68: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, NA, 2012–2022
Figure 69: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, NA
Figure 70: Fixed penetration rates by service type, NA, 2012–2022
Figure 71: Fixed ASPU by service type, NA, 2012–2022
Figure 72: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, NA
Figure 73: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue  (retail and wholesale), SSA, 2012–2022
Figure 74: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and  growth rates, SSA, 2016–2022
Figure 75: Connections by type, and growth rates, SSA, 2016–2022
Figure 76: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, SSA, 2012–2022
Figure 77: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, SSA, 2012–2022
Figure 78: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, SSA
Figure 79: Fixed penetration rates by service type, SSA, 2012–2022
Figure 80: Fixed ASPU by service type, SSA, 2012–2022
Figure 81: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, SSA
Figure 82: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue  (retail and wholesale), WE, 2012–2022
Figure 83: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and  growth rates, WE, 2016–2022
Figure 84: Connections by type, and growth rates, WE, 2016–2022
Figure 85: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, WE, 2012–2022
Figure 86: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, WE, 2012–2022
Figure 87: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, WE
Figure 88: Fixed penetration rates by service type, WE, 2012–2022
Figure 89: Fixed ASPU by service type, WE, 2012–2022
Figure 90: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, WE

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