Mobile Services in Central and Eastern Europe: Trends and Forecasts 2017–2022

  • ID: 4428022
  • Report
  • Region: Central Europe, Eastern Europe, Europe
  • 27 pages
  • Analysys Mason Group
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"Mobile telecoms revenue in Central and Eastern Europe will continue its recovery over the next few years, driven primarily by growth in handset data."

The Central and Eastern European mobile market continues to flourish and is increasingly driven by data – the author expects 4G to comprise 60% of all connections by 2022. We examine key trends and drivers and provide a comprehensive mobile telecoms market forecast for the region and for 14 individually modelled countries in this report.

This report provides:

  • a 5-year forecast of 224 mobile KPIs for the Central and Eastern European region and for 14 key countries
  • an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile service, and for key countries
  • an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, which highlight similarities and differences between countries
  • a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile operators.

Data coverage

  • Mobile connections
  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
  • Prepaid, contract
  • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G
  • Smartphone, non-smartphone

Mobile revenue

  • Service, retail
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
  • Handset voice, messaging, data

Mobile ARPU

  • SIMs, handset
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset voice, data

Voice traffic

  • Outgoing minutes, MoU

WHO SHOULD READ THIS REPORT

  • Market intelligence, strategy and project managers at mobile operators in Europe.
  • Regulatory bodies in Europe.
  • Financial institutions that directly invest in the telecoms sector in the region, or advise others that do so.
  • Press and media bodies that need a foundation of knowledge of the European mobile telecoms market.
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Chapter No.
5. Executive summary
6. The recovery in telecoms revenue will continue during the next few years, driven by handset data revenue growth
7. Worldwide trends
8. Worldwide: Service revenue will continue to increase over the forecast period, reaching USD863 billion in 2022
9. Regional trends
10. Mobile revenue will continue to increase despite declining traditional services
11. Mobile penetration: The level of mobile SIM penetration will remain stable in the CEE region, with the exception of Turkey
12. Mobile connections: 4G/5G connections will displace 2G/3G, but we do not expect network decommissioning before 2022
13. Smartphones and LTE: The smartphone share of handsets in CEE will reach 82% by 2022
14. Mobile broadband: Widespread deployment of LTE infrastructure will support short-term growth of mobile broadband connections
15. ARPU: ARPU will stabilise due to declining competitive price pressure and the increasing take-up of more-expensive data plans
16. Data and revenue by generation: 4G technology roll-outs will drive service revenue increases in CEE
17. Country-level trends
18. Czech Republic: Revenue will grow, but the market will still be 18% smaller in 2022 than it was in 2012
19. Poland: Content services and widespread LTE coverage will help MNOs to increase handset data revenue
20. Russia: Competition in the country's mobile market will increase and lead to a decline in handset ARPU
21. Turkey: The race for 4G coverage and a high mobile handset data service demand will drive an increase in ARPU
22. About the author

List of figures
Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Central and Eastern Europe, 2012-2022
Figure 2: Mobile service revenue in Central and Eastern Europe and worldwide, 2012-2022
Figure 3: Telecoms retail revenue by mobile service type, and mobile ARPU, Central and Eastern Europe, 2012-2022
Figure 4: Telecoms retail revenue by mobile service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Central and Eastern Europe, 2016-2022
Figure 5: Connections by type, and growth rates, Central and Eastern Europe, 2016-2022
Figure 6: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding M2M), Central and Eastern Europe, 2012-2022
Figure 7: Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding M2M), and 3G, 4G and 5G's share of connections, Central and Eastern Europe, 2012-2022
Figure 8: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and LTE's share of total connections (excluding M2M), Central and Eastern Europe, 2016 and 2022
Figure 9: Mobile broadband connections by screen size and technology, Central and Eastern Europe, 2012-2022
Figure 10: Mobile ARPU by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2012-2022
Figure 11: Mobile service revenue and ARPU by technology, Central and Eastern Europe, 2012-2022
Figure 12: Data traffic and revenue per megabyte, Central and Eastern Europe, 2012-2022
Figure 13: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Czech Republic, 2012-2022
Figure 14: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Czech Republic, 2012-2022
Figure 15: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Czech Republic
Figure 16: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Poland, 2012-2022
Figure 17: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Poland, 2012-2022
Figure 18: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Poland
Figure 19: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Russia, 2012-2022
Figure 20: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Russia, 2012-2022
Figure 21: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Russia
Figure 22: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Turkey, 2012-2022
Figure 23: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Turkey, 2012-2022
Figure 24: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Turkey

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Countries modelled individually

  • Bulgaria
  • Croatia

Detailed country commentary

  • Czech Republic
  • Estonia
  • Hungary
  • Latvia
  • Lithuania
  • Poland
  • Romania
  • Russia
  • Slovakia
  • Slovenia
  • Turkey
  • Ukraine
  • Czech Republic
  • Poland
  • Russia
  • Turkey
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