Emerging Asia–Pacific Telecoms Market: Trends and Forecasts 2017–2022

  • ID: 4430003
  • Report
  • Region: Asia Pacific
  • 37 pages
  • Analysys Mason Group
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The author forecasts that fixed and mobile telecoms retail revenue will grow at similar CAGRs of around 2% in emerging Asia–Pacific during 2016–2022, driven by rapid growth in 4G connections and fixed broadband network developments.

This report and associated data annex provide:

  • a 5-year forecast of more than 180 mobile and fixed KPIs for emerging Asia–Pacific as a whole and for 12 key countries
  • an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service, and for key countries
  • an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, in order to highlight similarities and differences by means of a cross-country comparison
  • a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile and fixed operators.

Coverage

Geographical coverage   

Regions modelled

Emerging Asia–Pacific (EMAP)

Key performance indicators

Connections

Mobile

  • Handset, mobile broadband, M2M
  • Prepaid, contract
  • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G
  • Smartphone,
  • non-smartphone

Fixed

  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up
  • Narrowband voice, VoBB
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other

Fixed and mobile voice traffic

  • Outgoing minutes, MoU

Revenue

Mobile

  • Service, retail
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset, mobile broadband, M2M
  • Handset voice, messaging, data

Fixed

  • Service, retail
  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up, BNS
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other

Mobile ARPU

  • SIMs, handset
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset voice, data
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Chapter No.
8. Executive summary
9. Telecoms retail revenue for EMAP will increase over the forecast period, but the CAGR will fall from 5.3% (2012-2016) to 2.0% (2016-2022)
10. Telecoms retail revenue growth in EMAP over the forecast period will mainly be driven by mobile handset data, fixed broadband andIPTV
11. Fixed and mobile telecoms retail revenue will see similar CAGRs of around 2% in EMAP over 2016-2022
12. Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets
13. Key implications and recommendations for telecoms operators
14. Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison
15. Geographical coverage: 4G launches in Myanmar, Nepal and Vietnam in 2016 and 2017 will further increase the 4G share of connections in EMAP
16. Market context: Malaysia had the highest SIM population penetration and China the highest fixed broadband household penetration in 2016
17. Revenue and ARPU: An increase in subscriber numbers will compensate for a slight decline in ARPU, leading to stable growth in retail revenue
18. Mobile penetration: Active mobile SIM penetration in EMAP will grow from 85% in 2016 to 99% in 2022
19. Mobile connections: 4G will become the dominant technology over the forecast period, accounting for 64% of mobile connections in 2022
20. Smartphones and LTE: Smartphone penetration in EMAP will grow from 52% in 2016 to 81% in 2022 due to technology improvements
21. Mobile broadband: Technology migration and improvements will drive the rapid growth of mobile broadband connections
22. Mobile ARPU: Overall ARPU will continue to fall at a CAGR of -2.2% during the forecast period and stabilise around USD5 towards the end
23. Data and revenue by generation: Mobile network construction and upgrades will drive revenue growth and boost data traffic
24. Fixed services: There will be over 472 million fixed broadband connections in EMAP by 2022 and FTTP/B will account for 87% of these
25. Fixed broadband: Fixed broadband will grow strongly due to operator investments, government initiatives and service bundles
26. Key drivers at a glance for each emerging Asia-Pacific market
27. Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [1]
28. Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [2]
29. Individual country forecasts
30. China: China will continue to lead technology improvements in EMAP
31. China -mobile: Fast 4G take-up and innovative products drive cellular data usage, and 5G is expected to launch around 2020
32. China -fixed: China Mobile's entrance to the fixed market has stimulated subscriber growth, but affected fixed ASPU
33. Indonesia: Fixed broadband and mobile data services will be the main contributors to total service revenue growth
34. Indonesia -mobile: Intensified competition will lead to more innovative product offerings and result in 4G penetration growth
35. Indonesia -fixed: Broadband and IPTV revenue will grow due to increases in subscriber numbers and upgraded services
36. Malaysia: Total telecoms retail revenue will decline slowly due to market saturation in Malaysia
37. Malaysia -mobile: Intense competition limits data revenue growth - operators focus on postpaidofferings for higher margins
38. Malaysia -fixed: Operators focus on higher speed plans and more convergence bundles
39. Philippines: Total service revenue will grow at a CAGR of 1.3% during the forecast period due to data revenue growth
40. Philippines -mobile: Intensified competition will hamper operators' profitability and revenue growth will be marginal
41. Philippines -fixed: Fixed broadband connections will grow strongly, due to operators' efforts to expand coverage
42. Thailand: Rapid adoption of 4G and increasing FTTP penetration will be the main contributors to total service revenue growth
43. Thailand -mobile: Improved network speeds will drive growth in 4G mobile subscriber numbers and data revenue
44. Thailand -fixed: National initiatives will contribute to coverage expansion and increase broadband penetration
45. Vietnam: Technology improvements will drive growth in both mobile and fixed markets
46. Vietnam -mobile: The number of 4G subscribers will grow exponentially after the launch of the technology in 2017
47. Vietnam -fixed: Both fixed broadband connections and revenue will increase during 2017-2022, due to an extensive FTTP roll-out
48. About the authors

List of figures
Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), emerging Asia-Pacific, 2012-2022
Figure 2: Telecoms retail revenue growth by service type, emerging Asia-Pacific, -2022
Figure 3: Telecoms retail revenue growth by type and country, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2016-2022
Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for emerging Asia-Pacific
Figure 5: 4G/5G share of mobile connections and NGA share of fixed broadband connections by country, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2022
Figure 6: Metrics for the 13 countries modelled individually in emerging Asia-Pacific, 2016
Figure 7: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, fixed voice and fixed broadband ASPU, and mobile ARPU, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2012-2022
Figure 8: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2016-2022
Figure 9: Connections by type, and growth rates, emerging Asia-Pacific, -2022
Figure 10: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding IoT), emerging Asia-Pacific, 2012-2022
Figure 11: Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding M2M), and 3G, 4G and 5G's share of connections, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2012-2022
Figure 12: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and LTE's share of total connections (excluding M2M), emerging Asia-Pacific, 2016 and 2022
Figure 13: Mobile broadband connections by screen size and technology, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2012-2022
Figure 14: Mobile ARPU by country, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2012-2022
Figure 15: Mobile service revenue and ARPU by technology, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2012-2022
Figure 16: Data traffic and revenue per megabyte, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2012-2022
Figure 17: Fixed broadband connections by type, and fixed voice, IPTV and mobile broadband connections, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2012-2022
Figure 18: Fixed broadband penetration of households by country, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2012-2022
Figure 19: Major forecast drivers: current situation (2012) and future trajectory (2017-2022) by country, emerging Asia-Pacific
Figure 20: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
Figure 21: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), China, 2012-2022
Figure 22: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, China, 2016-2022
Figure 23: Connections by type, and growth rates, China, 2016-2022
Figure 24: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, China, 2012-2022
Figure 25: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, China, 2012-2022
Figure 26: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, China
Figure 27: Fixed penetration rates by service type, China, 2012-2022
Figure 28: Fixed ASPU by service type, China, 2012-2022
Figure 29: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, China
Figure 30: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Indonesia, 2012-2022
Figure 31: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Indonesia, 2016-2022
Figure 32: Connections by type, and growth rates, Indonesia, 2016-2022
Figure 33: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Indonesia, 2012-2022
Figure 34: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Indonesia, 2012-2022
Figure 35: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Indonesia
Figure 36: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Indonesia, 2012-2022
Figure 37: Fixed ASPU by service type, Indonesia, 2012-2022
Figure 38: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Indonesia
Figure 39: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Malaysia, 2012-2022
Figure 40: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Malaysia, 2016-2022
Figure 41: Connections by type, and growth rates, Malaysia, 2016-2022
Figure 42: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Malaysia, 2012-2022
Figure 43: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Malaysia, 2012-2022
Figure 44: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Malaysia
Figure 45: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Malaysia, 2012-2022
Figure 46: Fixed ASPU by service type, Malaysia, 2012-2022
Figure 47: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Malaysia
Figure 48: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Philippines, 2012-2022
Figure 49: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Philippines, 2016-2022
Figure 50: Connections by type, and growth rates, Philippines, 2016-2022
Figure 51: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Philippines, 2012-2022
Figure 52: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Philippines, 2012-2022
Figure 53: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Philippines
Figure 54: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Philippines, 2012-2022
Figure 55: Fixed ASPU by service type, Philippines, 2012-2022
Figure 56: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Philippines
Figure 57: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Thailand, 2012-2022
Figure 58: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Thailand, 2016-2022
Figure 59: Connections by type, and growth rates, Thailand, 2016-2022
Figure 60: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Thailand, 2012-2022
Figure 61: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Thailand, 2012-2022
Figure 62: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Thailand
Figure 63: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Thailand, 2012-2022
Figure 64: Fixed ASPU by service type, Thailand, 2012-2022
Figure 65: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Thailand
Figure 66: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Vietnam, 2012-2022
Figure 67: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Vietnam, 2016-2022
Figure 68: Connections by type, and growth rates, Vietnam, 2016-2022
Figure 69: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Vietnam, 2012-2022
Figure 70: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Vietnam, 2012-2022
Figure 71: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Vietnam
Figure 72: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Vietnam, 2012-2022
Figure 73: Fixed ASPU by service type, Vietnam, 2012-2022
Figure 74: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Vietnam

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  •     Bangladesh
  •     Cambodia
  •     China
  •     India
  •     Indonesia
  •     Malaysia
  •     Myanmar
  •     Pakistan
  •     Philippines
  •     Sri Lanka
  •     Thailand
  •     Vietnam
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