FTTx Conversion: Worldwide Trends and Forecasts 2017–2022

  • ID: 4438371
  • Report
  • Region: Global
  • 18 pages
  • Analysys Mason Group
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FTTx Subscriber Take-Up Is Growing Worldwide, but the Rates Vary According to Country and Region

Dynamics in fixed broadband markets are changing as growing numbers of subscribers switch to FTTx networks. This report examines how quickly the migration to FTTx is occurring and what the wider implications of this transition are.

This report provides:

  • 5-year forecasts for subscriber connection numbers and connection rates for flavours of FTTx and cable (DOCSIS 3.0/3.1) in eight regions and in 64 individual markets
  • analysis of the key trends
  • drivers and inhibitors of FTTx subscriber growth.

KEY METRICS

  • Subscriber connection numbers
  • Subscriber connections per premises passed
  • Split by architecture/technology:
  • FTTC/VDSL or G.fast
  • FTTB/VDSL or G.fast
  • FTTB/LAN
  • FTTP (split into incumbent and alternative operator)
  • cable DOCSIS3.0 or 3.1.

GEOGRAPHICAL COVERAGE
The report and accompanying data annex provide forecasts for eight regions and 64 individual countries.

Who Should Read this Report

  • This report provides strategic planners with detailed and comprehensive insight into the development of FTTx.
  • The report allows strategic planners to understand how quickly subscriber connection rates are likely to grow in the future and how the growth rate has been accelerated in different cases.
  • For equipment vendors and component suppliers, it shows the scale of opportunity in FTTx.
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Chapter No.

7. Worldwide trends
8. NGA will dominate the fixed broadband market in 2022 and FTTP will continue to increase its share of connection
9. Forced migration has driven FTTP take-up rates to very high levels in some emerging markets
10. In markets dominated by wholesale national broadband networks, FTTx take-up is growing steadily after a slow start
11. Energy companies have seen very mixed take-up rates for their FTTP deployments
12. Fibre specialist ISPs are facing an increasingly difficult market, which is making market share growth challenging
13. FTTx subscribers have significantly lower churn than non-NGA fixed broadband subscribers
14. Incumbents that are slow to proceed with FTTP deployments face political and regulatory risks and potential wholesale losses
15. Dramatic increases in FTTx coverage have had a limited impact on cable broadband connection trends
16. Western Europe
17. Western Europe: FTTx conversion remains challenging for some Western European incumbents
18. Central and Eastern Europe
19. Central and Eastern Europe: NGA take-up rates will experience only limited growth in the period to 2022
20. Middle East and North Africa
21. Middle East and North Africa: NGA connections will be used by just 12% of households in MENA at the end of 2022
22. Sub-Saharan Africa
23. Sub-Saharan Africa: Take-up rates for NGA will reach 30% of premises passed at the end of 2022, lower than other regions
24. China and merging Asia–Pacific
25. China: Infrastructure competition and forced migration have driven FTTP take-up rates to very high levels
26. Rest of emerging Asia–Pacific: Subscriber connection rates have generally been good but there are exceptions
27. Developed Asia–Pacific
28. Developed Asia–Pacific: The migration to incumbent fibre infrastructure continues to be slow in some advanced markets
29. North America
30. North America: NGA competition is likely to become more intense in Canada and the USA
31. Latin America
32. Latin America: Cable operators will continue to dominate the NGA market in the period to 2021
33. Appendix
34. The retail take-up on FTTP networks in which energy companies have been involved has been highest for LyseTele in Norway
35. Forecast methodology and assumptions
36. Geographical scope: Forecasts are provided for 64 countries in 8 regions
37. Definitions
38. About the authors

List of figures
Figure 1: Fixed broadband active connections, by technology, and NGA share of connections worldwide, 2012–2022
Figure 2: Conversion rates by technology, worldwide, 2012–2022
Figure 3: NGA conversion rates, by region, 2014–2022
Figure 4: ADSL connections as a proportion of fixed broadband connections, by country, 2012–2016
Figure 5: FTTx conversion rates for incumbent wholesale operators, by country, 4Q 2009–4Q 2017
Figure 6: Energy company involvement in retail FTTP networks
Figure 7: FTTP/B subscriber market share by lean ISP, end of 2016 and end of 2Q 2017
Figure 8: Monthly fixed broadband churn rate by selected operator, 2015–2Q 2017
Figure 9: Iceland fixed broadband market share, 2012–2016
Figure 10: Cable and NGA connections and year-on-year change in cable connections, Western Europe, 2012–2022
Figure 11: Conversion rates for NGA overall, and FTTP and FTTx, Western Europe, 2015–2022
Figure 12: Active connections per premises, by technology, Western Europe, 2015–2022
Figure 13: Conversion rates for NGA overall, and FTTP and FTTx, Central andEastern Europe, 2015–2022
Figure 14: Active connections per premises, by technology, Central and EasternEurope, 2015–2022
Figure 15: Conversion rates for NGA overall, and FTTP and FTTx, Middle East and North Africa, 2015–2022
Figure 16: Active connections per premises, by technology, Middle East and North Africa, 2015–2022
Figure 17: Conversion rates for NGA overall, and FTTP and FTTx, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2015–2022
Figure 18: Active connections per premises, by technology, Sub-Saharan Africa,2015–2022
Figure 19: Conversion rates for NGA overall, and FTTP and FTTx, China, 2015–2022
Figure 20: Active connections per premises, by technology, China, 2015–2022
Figure 21: Conversion rates for NGA overall, and FTTP and FTTx, rest of emerging Asia–Pacific, 2015–2022
Figure 22: Active connections per premises, by technology, rest of emerging Asia–Pacific, 2015–2022
Figure 23: Conversion rates for NGA overall, and FTTP and FTTx, developed Asia–Pacific, 2015–2022
Figure 24: Active connections per premises, by technology, developed Asia–Pacific, 2015–2022
Figure 25: Conversion rates for NGA overall, and FTTP and FTTx, North America, 2015–2022
Figure 26: Active connections per premises, by technology, North America, 2015–2022
Figure 27: Conversion rates for NGA overall, and FTTP and FTTx, Latin America, 2015–2022
Figure 28: Active connections per premises, by technology, Latin America, 2015–2022
Figure 29: Conversion rate of FTTP premises passed, selected energy company FTTP deployments
Figure 30: Countries covered in this report, by region
Figure 31: Definitions used in this report

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Regions   

  • Western Europe
  • Central and Eastern Europe
  • Middle East and North Africa
  • Sub-Saharan Africa
  • Emerging Asia–Pacific
  • Developed Asia–Pacific
  • North America
  • Latin America

Countries

  • Austria
  • Belgium
  • Denmark
  • Finland
  • France
  • Germany
  • Greece
  • Iceland
  • Ireland
  • Italy
  • Netherlands
  • Norway
  • Portugal
  • Spain
  • Sweden
  • Switzerland
  • UK
  • Bulgaria
  • Croatia
  • Czech Republic
  • Estonia
  • Hungary
  • Latvia
  • Lithuania
  • Poland
  • Romania
  • Russia
  • Serbia
  • Slovakia
  • Slovenia
  • Turkey
  • Ukraine
  • Israel
  • Oman
  • Qatar
  • Saudi Arabia
  • UAE
  • Ghana
  • Kenya
  • Nigeria
  • South Africa
  • China
  • India
  • Indonesia
  • Malaysia
  • Philippines
  • Thailand
  • Vietnam
  • Australia
  • Hong Kong
  • Japan
  • New Zealand
  • Singapore
  • South Korea
  • Taiwan
  • Canada
  • USA
  • Argentina
  • Brazil
  • Chile
  • Colombia
  • Mexico
  • Peru
  • Uruguay
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