PharmaPoint: Alzheimer's Disease - Global Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2026

  • ID: 4438980
  • Report
  • Region: Global
  • 330 pages
  • GlobalData
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PharmaPoint: Alzheimer’s Disease - Global Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2026

Summary

Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is a looming endangerment to global health, and a threat to the world economy. One in every three seniors in the US dies with AD or another form of dementia. It is the sixth leading overall cause of death in the US, and ranks as the fifth leading cause of death among those aged 65 years old or older. The overall costs of AD were estimated to reach upwards of $259B in 2017 in the US alone, $175B (68%) of which was paid for by Medicaid or Medicare. The government spending on AD is expected to rise sharply across the seven major markets (7MM: US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, and Japan) due to the aging global population.

During 2016-2026, the growth of the AD market will be driven by the entry of disease-modifying therapies (DMTs), including the passive immunotherapies aducanumab, gantenerumab, and crenezumab, which will have significant uptake in the US, the 5EU (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and UK), and Japan. In addition to DMTs, novel symptomatic therapies with innovative mechanisms of action are anticipated to become routinely used in care over the 10-year forecast period.

The major drivers of growth in the AD market in the 7MM over the forecast period include:
  • Entry of DMTs, including the passive immunotherapies aducanumab, gantenerumab, and crenezumab, and the beta-secretase (BACE) inhibitors verubecestat and lanabecestat.
  • Entry of novel symptomatic therapies such as intepirdine.
  • Entry of DMTs targeting presymptomatic AD population: CAD106, CNP520, and JNJ-54861911.
  • Rising prevalence of AD and MCI.
  • Expanding diagnostic capability.
  • Growing social awareness of the disease.
In 2016, it is estimated that the global AD market had reached around $2.9B across the 7MM. By the end of the forecast period in 2026, sales across these markets will reach about $14.8B, increasing at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 17.5% over the 10-year forecast period, which will see the launch of 20 new therapies, including several drug candidates that have the potential to modify the underlying cause of the disease.

The report "PharmaPoint: Alzheimer’s Disease - Global Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2026", providesoverview of AD: including epidemiology, etiology, pathophysiology, symptoms, diagnosis, and disease management.

In depth, this report provides the following:
  • Annualized AD market revenue, cost of therapy per patient, and treatment usage patterns in three patient segments (including mild cognitive impairment, mild AD, moderate AD, and severe AD), forecast from 2016 to 2026.
  • Key topics covered: strategic competitor assessment, market characterization, unmet needs, clinical trial mapping and implications for the AD therapeutics market.
  • Pipeline analysis: comprehensive data assessing emerging trends and mechanisms of action under development for AD therapy. The most promising candidate in Phase III (and Phase II/III) development is profiled.
  • Analysis of the current and future market competition in the global AD therapeutics market. Insightful review of the key industry drivers, restraints and challenges. Each trend is independently researched to provide qualitative analysis of its implications.
Companies mentioned in this report: AB Science, Abbvie, AC Immune, Acadia, Actinogen Medical, Adamas Pharmaceuticals, Allergan, Amgen, Archer Pharmaceuticals

Scope
  • Overview of AD, including epidemiology, etiology, pathophysiology, symptoms, diagnosis, and disease management.
  • Annualized AD market revenue, cost of therapy per patient, and treatment usage patterns in three patient segments (including mild cognitive impairment, mild AD, moderate AD, and severe AD), forecast from 2016 to 2026.
  • Key topics covered: strategic competitor assessment, market characterization, unmet needs, clinical trial mapping and implications for the AD therapeutics market
  • Pipeline analysis: comprehensive data assessing emerging trends and mechanisms of action under development for AD therapy. The most promising candidate in Phase III (and Phase II/III) development is profiled.
  • Analysis of the current and future market competition in the global AD therapeutics market. Insightful review of the key industry drivers, restraints and challenges. Each trend is independently researched to provide qualitative analysis of its implications.
Reasons to buy

The report will enable you to:
  • Develop and design your in-licensing and out-licensing strategies through a review of pipeline products and technologies, and by identifying the companies with the most robust pipeline.
  • Develop business strategies by understanding the trends shaping and driving the global AD therapeutics market.
  • Drive revenues by understanding the key trends, innovative products and technologies, market segments, and companies likely to impact the global AD therapeutics market in the future.
  • Formulate effective sales and marketing strategies by understanding the competitive landscape and by analysing the performance of various competitors.
  • Identify emerging players with potentially strong product portfolios and create effective counter-strategies to gain a competitive advantage.
  • Organize your sales and marketing efforts by identifying the market categories and segments that present maximum opportunities for consolidations, investments and strategic partnerships.
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Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
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FEATURED COMPANIES

  • Allergan
  • AstraZeneca
  • Biogen
  • Eisai
  • Eli lilly
  • Lundbeck
  • MORE
1 Table of Contents

2 Executive Summary
2.1 Alzheimer’s Market Forecast to See Double-Digit Sales Growth out to 2026
2.2 Allergan, Biogen, and Roche Are Forecast to Lead the AD Market in 2026
2.3 Lack of Treatments and Biomarkers Remain As Key Unmet Needs in the AD Market
2.4 Opportunities Remain for Disease-Modifying and Symptomatic Drugs Entering the AD Market
2.5 Twenty Promising Drugs in Phase II/III or Phase III of Development
2.6 What Do Physicians Think?

3 Introduction
3.1 Catalyst
3.2 Related Reports

4 Disease Overview
4.1 Etiology and Pathophysiology
4.1.1 Etiology
4.1.2 Pathophysiology
4.2 Disease Staging Systems
4.3 Symptoms
4.4 Prognosis
4.5 Quality of Life

5 Epidemiology
5.1 Disease Background
5.2 Risk Factors and Comorbidities
5.3 Global and Historical Trends
5.4 Forecast Methodology
5.4.1 Sources
5.4.2 Forecast Assumptions and Methods
5.4.3 Total Prevalent Cases of AD
5.4.4 Total Prevalent Cases of AD by Severity
5.4.5 Total Prevalent Cases of MCI
5.5 Epidemiological Forecast for AD (2016-2026)
5.5.1 Total Prevalent Cases of AD
5.5.2 Age-Specific Total Prevalent Cases of AD
5.5.3 Sex-Specific Total Prevalent Cases of AD
5.5.4 Total Prevalent Cases of AD by Severity
5.6 Epidemiological Forecast for MCI (2016-2026)
5.6.1 Total Prevalent Cases of MCI
5.6.2 Age-Specific Total Prevalent Cases of MCI
5.6.3 Sex-Specific Total Prevalent Cases of MCI
5.7 Discussion
5.7.1 Epidemiological Forecast Insight
5.7.2 Limitations of Analysis
5.7.3 Strengths of Analysis

6 Disease Management
6.1 Diagnosis Overview
6.1.1 Probable AD Dementia
6.1.2 Preclinical AD
6.1.3 MCI
6.2 Treatment Overview
6.3 Clinical Practice
6.3.1 Leading Prescribed Therapies
6.4 US
6.5 5EU
6.6 Japan

7 Competitive Assessment
7.1 Overview
7.2 Product Profiles - Major Brands
7.2.1 Aricept (Donepezil Hydrochloride)
7.2.2 Exelon (Rivastigmine, Rivastigmine tartrate)
7.2.3 Razadyne (Galantamine Hydrobromide)
7.2.4 Namenda (Memantine Hydrochloride)
7.2.5 Namzaric (Memantine and Donepezil Hydrochlorides)
7.3 Other Therapeutic Classes

8 Unmet Needs and Opportunity Assessment
8.1 Overview
8.2 Drugs with Disease-Modifying Mechanisms of Action
8.2.1 Unmet Need
8.2.2 Gap Analysis
8.2.3 Opportunity
8.3 Diagnosis in the Prodromal or Presymptomatic Stages
8.3.1 Unmet Need
8.3.2 Gap Analysis
8.3.3 Opportunity
8.4 Improved Control of Symptoms
8.4.1 Unmet Need
8.4.2 Gap Analysis
8.4.3 Opportunity
8.5 Easier Access to Treatment
8.5.1 Unmet Need
8.5.2 Gap Analysis
8.5.3 Opportunity

9 Pipeline Assessment
9.1 Overview
9.2 Clinical Trial Mapping
9.2.1 Clinical Trials by Class
9.3 Promising Drugs in Clinical Development
9.3.1 Biopharmaceutical Products
9.3.2 Gantenerumab
9.3.3 Crenezumab
9.3.4 Aducanumab
9.3.5 Flebogamma + Albutein
9.3.6 CAD106
9.3.7 Small Molecule
9.3.8 Verubecestat
9.3.9 Elenbecestat
9.3.10 Lanabecestat
9.3.11 JNJ-54861911
9.3.12 CNP520
9.3.13 Azeliragon
9.3.14 Pioglitazone
9.3.15 Nilvadipine
9.3.16 Intepirdine
9.3.17 ALZT-OP1
9.3.18 TRx-0237 (LMTX)
9.3.19 Brexipiprazole
9.3.20 Aripiprazole
9.3.21 AVP-786
9.3.22 ITI-007
9.3.23 Other Drugs in Development

10 Current and Future Players
10.1 Overview
10.2 Trends in Corporate Strategy
10.3 Company Profiles
10.3.1 Allergan
10.3.2 Lundbeck
10.3.3 Eisai
10.3.4 Pfizer
10.3.5 Novartis
10.3.6 Roche
10.3.7 Biogen
10.3.8 Eli lilly
10.3.9 Merck & Co.
10.3.10 AstraZeneca
10.3.11 Takeda

11 Market Outlook
11.1 Global Markets
11.1.1 Forecast
11.1.2 Drivers and Barriers - Global Issues
11.2 US
11.2.1 Forecast
11.2.2 Key Events
11.2.3 Drivers and Barriers
11.3 5EU
11.3.1 Forecast
11.3.2 Key Events
11.3.3 Drivers and Barriers
11.4 Japan
11.4.1 Forecast
11.4.2 Key Events
11.4.3 Drivers and Barriers

12 Appendix
12.1 Bibliography
12.2 Abbreviations
12.3 Methodology
12.3.1 Forecasting Methodology
12.3.2 Diagnosed Patients
12.3.3 Percent Drug-Treated Patients
12.3.4 Drugs Included in Each Therapeutic Class
12.3.5 Launch and Patent Expiry Dates
12.3.6 General Pricing Assumptions
12.3.7 Individual Drug Assumptions
12.3.8 Generic Erosion
12.3.9 Pricing of Pipeline Agents
12.4 Primary Research - KOLs Interviewed for This Report
12.4.1 KOLs
12.4.2 Payers
12.5 Primary Research - Prescriber Survey
12.6 About the Authors
12.6.1 Analyst
12.6.2 Therapy Area Director
12.6.3 Epidemiologist
12.6.4 Managing Epidemiologist
12.6.5 Global Director of Therapy Analysis and Epidemiology
12.6.6 Global Head and EVP of Healthcare Operations and Strategy
12.7 About
12.8 Contact
12.9 Disclaimer

List of Tables
Table 1: MCI and AD: Key Metrics in the 7MM
Table 2: Three-Stage Classification of AD
Table 3: The Seven-Stage Reisberg Scale of AD
Table 4: Common Symptoms of AD.
Table 5: DSM-IV Criteria for the Diagnosis of Dementia
Table 6: NINCDS-ADRDA Criteria for the Diagnosis of AD
Table 7: Risk Factors and Comorbidities for AD
Table 8: 7MM, Total Prevalent Cases of AD, Both Sexes, Ages =60 Years, Selected Years 2016-2026.
Table 9: 7MM, Total Prevalent Cases of MCI, Both Sexes, Ages =60 Years, Selected Years 2016-2026.
Table 10: Commonly Used Diagnostic Guidelines for Alzheimer’s Disease
Table 11: Summary of NINCDS-ARDA Diagnostic Criteria for Alzheimer’s Disease
Table 12: Proposed NIA-AA Staging Classification for Preclinical AD
Table 13: NIA-AA Biomarker Criteria for MCI
Table 14: Commonly Used Treatment Guidelines for Alzheimer’s Disease in the 7MM
Table 15: Most Prescribed Drugs for AD by Class in the 7MM, 2016
Table 16: Most Commonly Prescribed Off-Label Drug Classes for AD, by Treatment Line, in the 7MM
Table 17: Country Profile - US
Table 18: Region Profile - 5EU, 2017
Table 19: Country Profile - Japan
Table 20: Leading Therapies in AD
Table 21: Product Profile - Aricept
Table 22: Efficacy Results for Aricept in Mild to Moderate AD
Table 23: Efficacy Results for Aricept in Moderate to Severe AD
Table 24: Efficacy Results for Aricept in Severe AD
Table 25: Aricept SWOT Analysis, 2017
Table 26: Product Profile - Exelon
Table 27: Efficacy Results for Exelon Capsule and Oral Solution in AD
Table 28: Efficacy Results for Exelon Patch in AD
Table 29: Adverse Events Occurring in at Least 2% of Patients and at a Higher Frequency than Placebo-Treated Patients
Table 30: Exelon SWOT Analysis, 2017
Table 31: Product Profile - Razadyne
Table 32: Efficacy Results for Razadyne in Probable AD
Table 33: Razadyne SWOT Analysis, 2017
Table 34: Product Profile - Namenda
Table 35: Efficacy Results for Namenda and Namenda XR in Alzheimer’s Disease
Table 36: Safety Results for Namenda and Namenda XR in Alzheimer’s Disease
Table 37: Namenda SWOT Analysis, 2017
Table 38: Product Profile - Namzaric
Table 39: Namzaric SWOT Analysis, 2017
Table 40: Summary of Minor Therapeutic Classes, 2017
Table 41: Comparison of Therapeutic Classes in Development for AD
Table 42: Product Profile - Gantenerumab
Table 43: Key Efficacy Results For Gantenerumab
Table 44: Pipeline Gantenerumab SWOT Analysis, 2017
Table 45: Ongoing Phase III Trials For Crenezumab, 2017
Table 46: Product Profile - Crenezumab
Table 47: Key Efficacy Data for Crenezumab
Table 48: Pipeline Crenezumab SWOT Analysis, 2017
Table 49: Product Profile - Aducanumab
Table 50: Key Efficacy Data for Aducanumab
Table 51: Key Safety Results For Aducanumab From Phase Ib PRIME Study
Table 52: Pipeline Aducanumab SWOT Analysis, 2017
Table 53: Product Profile - Flebogamma + Albutein
Table 54: Key Efficacy Data for Flebogamma + Albutein
Table 55: Key Safety Results For Flebogamma + Albutein From AMBAR (Interim Analysis)
Table 56: Flebogamma + Albutein SWOT Analysis, 2017
Table 57: Product Profile - CAD106
Table 58: CAD106 SWOT Analysis, 2017
Table 59: Product Profile - Verubecestat
Table 60: Verubecestat SWOT Analysis, 2017
Table 61: Product Profile - Elenbecestat
Table 62: Key Efficacy Data for Elenbecestat
Table 63: Elenbecestat SWOT Analysis, 2017
Table 64: Product Profile - Lanabecestat
Table 65: Key Efficacy Data for Lanabecestat
Table 66: Lanabecestat SWOT Analysis, 2017
Table 67: Product Profile - JNJ-54861911
Table 68: Key Efficacy Data for JNJ-54861911
Table 69: JNJ-54861911 SWOT Analysis, 2017
Table 70: Product Profile - CNP520
Table 71: Key Efficacy Data for CNP520
Table 72: CNP520 SWOT Analysis, 2017
Table 73: Product Profile - Azeliragon
Table 74: Azeliragon SWOT Analysis, 2017
Table 75: Product Profile - Pioglitazone
Table 76: Key Safety Results For Pioglitazone
Table 77: Pioglitazone SWOT Analysis, 2017
Table 78: Product Profile - Nilvadipine
Table 79: Nilvadipine SWOT Analysis, 2017
Table 80: Product Profile - Intepirdine
Table 81: Key Efficacy Results For Intepirdine
Table 82: Intepirdine SWOT Analysis, 2017
Table 83: Product Profile - ALZT-OP1
Table 84: ALZT-OP1 SWOT Analysis, 2017
Table 86: Product Profile - TRx-0237
Table 87: Key Efficacy Results for TRx-0237
Table 88: Key Safety Results For TRx-0237 from the Phase III TRx-237-005 Study
Table 89: TRx-0237 SWOT Analysis, 2017
Table 90: Product Profile - Brexipiprazole
Table 91: Key Efficacy Results For Brexipiprazole
Table 92: Brexipiprazole SWOT Analysis, 2017
Table 93: Product Profile - Aripiprazole
Table 94: Key Efficacy Results For Aripiprazole
Table 95: Key Safety Results For Aripiprazole
Table 96: Aripiprazole SWOT Analysis, 2017
Table 97: Product Profile - AVP-786
Table 98: AVP-786 SWOT Analysis, 2017
Table 99: Product Profile - ITI-007
Table 100: ITI-007 SWOT Analysis, 2017
Table 101: Drugs in Development for AD and AD-Related Symptoms, 2017
Table 102: Key Companies in the AD Market in the 7MM, 2017
Table 103: Allergan’s AD Portfolio Assessment, 2017
Table 104: Lundbeck’s AD Portfolio Assessment, 2017
Table 105: Eisai’s AD Portfolio Assessment, 2017
Table 106: Pfizer’s AD Portfolio Assessment, 2017
Table 107: Novartis’s AD Portfolio Assessment, 2017
Table 108: Roche’s AD Portfolio Assessment, 2017
Table 109: Biogen’s AD Portfolio Assessment, 2017
Table 110: Eli Lilly’s AD Portfolio Assessment, 2017
Table 111: Merck’s AD Portfolio Assessment, 2017
Table 112: AstrasZeneca’s AD Portfolio Assessment, 2017
Table 113: Takeda’s AD Portfolio Assessment, 2017
Table 114: AD Market - Global Drivers and Barriers, 2016-2026
Table 115: Key Events Impacting Sales for Alzheimer’s Disease in the US, 2016-2026
Table 116: AD Market - Drivers and Barriers in the US, 2016-2026
Table 117: Key Events Impacting Sales for AD in the 5EU, 2016-2026
Table 118: AD Market - Drivers and Barriers in the 5EU, 2016-2026
Table 119: Key Events Impacting Sales for AD in Japan, 2016-2026
Table 120: AD Market - Global Drivers and Barriers in Japan, 2016-2026
Table 121: Key Historical and Projected Launch Dates for AD
Table 122 : Key Historical and Projected Patent Expiry Dates for AD
Table 123: High-Prescribing Physicians (non-KOLs) Surveyed, by Country

List of Figures
Figure 1: Global Sales Forecast by Country for AD, 2016-2026
Figure 2: Company Portfolio Gap Analysis in AD, 2016-2026
Figure 3: Competitive Assessment of Late-Stage Pipeline Agents in AD, 2016-2026
Figure 4: AD Biomarker Tests by Pathophysiology
Figure 5: Dynamic Changes in AD Biomarker Over Time
Figure 6: 7MM, Age-Standardized Total Prevalence of AD (%), Ages =60 Years
Figure 7: 7MM, Age-Standardized Total Prevalence of MCI (%), Ages =60 Years
Figure 8: 7MM, Sources Used and Not Used, Total Prevalent Cases of AD
Figure 9: 7MM, Sources Used, Total Prevalent Cases of AD by Severity
Figure 10: 7MM, Sources Used, Total Prevalent Cases of MCI
Figure 11: 7MM, Age-Specific Total Prevalent Cases of AD, Both Sexes, 2016
Figure 12: 7MM, Sex-Specific Total Prevalent Cases of AD, Both Sexes, Ages >60 Years, 2016
Figure 13: 7MM, Total Prevalent Cases of AD by Severity, Both Sexes, Ages =60 Years, 2016
Figure 14: 7MM, Age-Specific Total Prevalent Cases of MCI, Both Sexes, 2016
Figure 15: 7MM, Sex-Specific Total Prevalent Cases of MCI, Both Sexes, Ages >60 Years, 2016
Figure 16: Disease Management Timeline For Alzheimer’s Disease
Figure 17: Unmet Need and Opportunity in AD, 2017
Figure 18: Overview of the Development Pipeline in MCI and AD
Figure 19 : Active Phase II and Phase III Clinical Trials in MCI and AD by Drug Class, 2017
Figure 20: Key Phase II/III and III Trials, Promising Pipeline Agents for MCI and AD, 7MM, 2016-2026
Figure 21: Key Phase III Trials of Promising Pipeline Agents for AD-Associated Agitation, 7MM, 2016-2026
Figure 22: Competitive Assessment of the Late-Stage Pipeline Agents for MCI and AD, 2017-2027
Figure 23: Clinical and Commercial Positioning of Gantenerumab
Figure 24: Clinical and Commercial Positioning of Crenezumab
Figure 25: Clinical and Commercial Positioning of Pipeline aducanumab
Figure 26: Clinical and Commercial Positioning of Pipeline Flebogamma + Albutein
Figure 27: Clinical and Commercial Positioning of Pipeline CAD106
Figure 28: Clinical and Commercial Positioning of Verubecestat
Figure 29: Clinical and Commercial Positioning of Elenbecestat
Figure 30: Clinical and Commercial Positioning of Lanabecestat
Figure 31: Clinical and Commercial Positioning of JNJ-54861911
Figure 32: Clinical and Commercial Positioning of CNP520
Figure 33: Clinical and Commercial Positioning of Azeliragon
Figure 34: Clinical and Commercial Positioning of Pioglitazone
Figure 35: Clinical and Commercial Positioning of Nilvadipine
Figure 36: Clinical and Commercial Positioning of Intepirdine
Figure 37: Clinical and Commercial Positioning of ALZT-OP1
Figure 38: Clinical and Commercial Positioning of TRx-0237
Figure 39: Clinical and Commercial Positioning of Brexipiprazole
Figure 40: Clinical and Commercial Positioning of Aripiprazole
Figure 41: Clinical and Commercial Positioning of AVP-786
Figure 42: Clinical and Commercial Positioning of ITI-007
Figure 43: Global Sales of AD Products, by Company, 2016 and 2026
Figure 44: Company Portfolio Gap Analysis in AD, 2016-2026
Figure 45: Allergan SWOT Analysis, 2017
Figure 46: Lundbeck SWOT Analysis, 2017
Figure 47: Eisai SWOT Analysis, 2017
Figure 48: Pfizer SWOT Analysis, 2017
Figure 49: Novartis SWOT Analysis, 2017
Figure 50: Roche SWOT Analysis, 2017
Figure 51: Biogen SWOT Analysis, 2017
Figure 52: Eli Lilly SWOT Analysis, 2017
Figure 53: Merck SWOT Analysis, 2017
Figure 54: AstraZeneca SWOT Analysis
Figure 55: Takeda SWOT Analysis, 2017
Figure 56: 7MM Sales Forecast by Country for AD, 2016 and 2026
Figure 57: Sales Forecast by Class for AD in the US in 2016 and 2026
Figure 58: Sales Forecast by Class for AD in the 5EU, 2016 and 2026
Figure 59: Sales Forecast by Class for AD in Japan in 2016 and 2026
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  • Allergan
  • Lundbeck
  • Eisai
  • Pfizer
  • Novartis
  • Roche
  • Biogen
  • Eli lilly
  • Merck & Co.
  • AstraZeneca
  • Takeda
Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
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