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Country Risk Service Finland 1st Quarter Updater

  • ID: 4447258
  • Country Profile
  • Region: Finland
  • 18 Pages
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit
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The sovereign risk score and rating are at 18 and AA respectively. Government debt declined to 61.3% of GDP in 2017, and The Economist Intelligence Unit expects it to fall further, to under 60% by 2020. The budget deficit narrowed to 0.7% of GDP in 2017, and we expect it to remain broadly stable in 2018-20. Funding costs have risen slightly but remain low, with ten-year sovereign bonds yielding 0.7% on average in January-November 2018.

The currency score is at 26 and the rating at A. An improved economic and institutional outlook for the euro zone has increased the bloc's resilience to political risk and external shocks, and structural support for the currency comes from a large regional current-account surplus. We expect the euro to average US$1.21:EUR1 in 2019-20, after an estimated US$1.18:EUR1 in 2018.

The banking sector risk rating remains at AA. Finland's banks, some of which are part of pan-Nordic banks, have relatively strong capital ratios and were found to be resilient in EU-wide stress tests published in 2016. The financial sector has limited exposure to the most vulnerable EU countries, but some risk stems from a high level of household indebtedness.
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Country Risk Service Finland 1st Quarter Updater

Risk assessment
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk

Definitions
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk
Overall country risk

Central scenario for 2019-23: Political stability

Central scenario for 2019-23: Election watch

Central scenario for 2019-23: International relations

Central scenario for 2019-23: Policy trends

Central scenario for 2019-23: Fiscal policy

Central scenario for 2019-23: Monetary policy

Central scenario for 2019-23: Economic growth

Central scenario for 2019-23: Inflation

Central scenario for 2019-23: Exchange rates

Central scenario for 2019-23: External sector

Key risk indicators

Ratings summary

Quarterly indicators

International assumptions summary

Economic structure

Public finances

Exchange rates, interest rates and prices

Financial sector

Current account

Foreign payment and liquidity indicators

External trade
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